REPORT FILED: JUNE 16
Here are two American League right-handed pitching prospects that should see the majors sometime this summer: Jon Garland of the White Sox and Tomokazu Ohka of the Red Sox. Both have been the subject of rumors and speculation this spring.
Jon Garland
Chicago White Sox
Position: RHP Height: 6-6 Weight: 205 Born: 9/27/79
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
K |
W-L |
ERA |
SV |
| 1999 |
Win.-Salem |
A |
19 |
19 |
119 |
109 |
57 |
44 |
39 |
84 |
5-7 |
3.33 |
0 |
| 1999 |
Birmingham |
AA |
7 |
7 |
39 |
39 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
27 |
3-1 |
4.38 |
0 |
| 2000 |
Charlotte |
AAA |
13 |
13 |
83.2 |
80 |
22 |
20 |
25 |
52 |
8-1 |
2.15 |
0 |
I received several e-mails last week asking me about Jon Garland, and wondering why I didn't include him in the article about "future franchise players." Rather than respond to each e-mail, I decided to write Garland up this week. Rumors from Chicago have his name on the short list when the White Sox want another pitcher, so it is timely to discuss him in any event.
Garland entered pro ball in 1997, as the first-round pick of the Chicago Cubs, the 10th player selected in that draft class. From high school in Granada Hills, California, Garland impressed scouts with his lanky 6-5 frame, his lively fastball, and his ability to throw strikes. Some experts compared him to a young Bret Saberhagen, and he was expected to advance through the Cubs system quickly.
His 1998 season was disappointing. Garland lost some velocity off his fastball, and there were rumors that the Cubs braintrust wasn't happy with his work ethic or attention to detail. This was strange, since Garland always had a good reputation about such things. He was traded to the White Sox in mid-summer in exchange for middle reliever Matt Karchner, a trade that was roundly criticized by prospect experts at the time, but indicated just how far he had fallen in the Cubs' eyes.
Last year was another story. He was very successful in the Class A Carolina League, and held his own after a late promotion to Double-A. The velocity on his fastball was back to normal (92-94 mph), and he improved his curveball and changeup. No one complained about his work ethic, and the White Sox were tremendously pleased with his performance.
Garland was very impressive in spring training, and is now 8-1, 2.15 in 13 Triple-A starts. He continues to improve his command, and at this point it looks like he has little left to learn in the minors. With rookie Kip Wells struggling with his control, White Sox fans are drooling over Garland.
But while you have to love his ERA this year, a closer look at his numbers should make us a bit cautious. Garland is showing good control, but is allowing almost a hit an inning and doesn't have a particularly impressive strikeout/inning ratio. In other words, he is getting people out, but isn't dominating them so strongly that we can project immediate major league success.
Now, don't get me wrong here. I'm not saying that Garland isn't a great prospect. He is. He could very well post a 3.50 ERA in the majors if he gets the chance. But according to the K/IP and H/IP numbers, it's a less than even bet for him to dominate major league hitters at this point.
If Garland gets called up, I expect he would post decent, though not spectacular, numbers, perhaps something like what Mark Mulder is doing in Oakland. Long-term, Garland is an excellent property, and once he gets his bearings, could very well develop into a "franchise" pitcher.
He'd sure look good next to Kerry Wood in the Cubs rotation ...
Tomokazu Ohka
Boston Red Sox
Position: RHP Height: 6-1 Weight: 180 Born: 3/18/76
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
K |
W-L |
ERA |
SV |
| 1999 |
Trenton |
AA |
12 |
12 |
72 |
63 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
53 |
8-0 |
3.00 |
0 |
| 1999 |
Pawtucket |
AAA |
12 |
12 |
68.1 |
60 |
17 |
12 |
11 |
63 |
7-0 |
1.58 |
0 |
| 1999 |
Boston |
AL |
8 |
2 |
13 |
21 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
1-2 |
6.23 |
0 |
| 2000 |
Pawtucket |
AAA |
13 |
13 |
85.2 |
77 |
35 |
26 |
17 |
58 |
6-5 |
2.73 |
0 |
A second question I've been getting a lot lately is, "Why haven't the Red Sox called up Tomokazu Ohka?" I heard this several times a couple of weeks ago when Ohka threw a perfect game.
The Red Sox rotation is stable this year, with only Brian Rose (5.36) and Ramon Martinez (5.31) posting weak numbers. Ramon, for obvious reasons, won't be leaving the rotation, and since Rose has little left to prove in the minors, they seem willing to let him work out his problems in the hopes he can eventually make adjustments.
On the other hand, it's a good bet that Pete Schourek and/or Jeff Fassero will need supplementation at some point, which would open a door for Ohka. Another possibility would be a trade; Ohka's name has been mentioned in a few rumors. Either way, he should see action in the majors later this year or certainly in 2001, either with the Bostonians or elsewhere.
The Red Sox have been very aggressive about signing Asian players, and Ohka, from Japan, is one of their success stories. He posted an incredible 15-0 record in the high minors last year, and it wasn't all due to good run support: he pitched excellent ball, especially in Triple-A. Ohka got his lunch handed to him in his brief 1999 major league trial, but that's not unusual the first time around, and hardly a problem.
Back in Triple-A this season, Ohka is doing fine. He shows exceptional control of his fastball/curveball/changeup arsenal. His fastball isn't a blazer, being clocked in the 90-91 mph range most nights, but it has good movement and he knows how to use it. His curve and change are very good, and he projects as a solid number two or three starter in the majors.
Like Garland, Ohka isn't striking people out at a dominant rate, and shouldn't be expected to post a sub-3.00 ERA in the majors at this point in his career. His stuff isn't quite as good as Garland's, but his command is better overall. Given a chance in the majors, I expect that Ohka will, like Garland, post adequate though not spectacular numbers at first. Given adjustment time, he will become a very fine pitcher.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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