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Thursday, May 25
Josh Hamilton, B.J. Garbe
By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

REPORT FILED: MAY 26

One of the hardest things for a scout to do is project how well a young hitter, particularly a high school hitter, will adjust to professional pitching. Here are two high-profile draftees from 1999, Josh Hamilton of Tampa Bay and B.J. Garbe of Minnesota. Both were expected to adjust quickly to pro pitching, but in both cases the early results have been a bit mixed.

Josh Hamilton
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Position: OF Height: 6-4 Weight: 200 Born: 5/21/81 Bats: Left Throws: Left

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS BA OBP SLG
1999 Princeton R 56 236 49 82 20 4 10 48 13 43 17 3 .347 .378 .593
1999 Hudson Vlly A 16 72 7 14 3 0 0 7 1 14 1 1 .194 .213 .236
2000 Charleston A 41 175 26 56 14 1 3 27 10 38 7 0 .320 .358 .463

The Devil Rays had the first pick in last year's draft, and selected Hamilton, a high school outfielder from Raleigh, N.C. They considered selecting Josh Beckett, the fireballing Texas right-hander who ended up going to the Marlins with the No. 2 pick, but Tampa felt that Hamilton's bonus demands were a bit more reasonable. The fact that high school pitchers tend to fail at a greater rate than outfielders also weighed in the decision, but Hamilton is an outstanding prospect in his own right, and well worth the selection.

Physically, Hamilton has everything. He is big, strong, and fast, with high grades in all the physical tools that scouts look for. He even has a strong arm, having pitched in high school, and will be an ideal right fielder in the major leagues. Hamilton is also intelligent and has a strong work ethic. In short, he's a complete package physically and mentally.

How are his skills compared to his tools? Hamilton ripped up the Appalachian League after signing last year, battering rookie-level pitching for power and average. He struggled after a brief promotion to the short-season New York-Penn League, but it wasn't enough to deter the Devil Rays, who started him in the South Atlantic League this year. He's cooled a bit after a hot start for Charleston, but is still well over .300, with very good power.

Some interesting things show up in his Charleston numbers. Although he has just three homers so far, the 14 doubles is an excellent sign for his future over-the-fence power. He has polished secondary skills on the bases and in the field. He's swiped seven bases without being caught, making him 25-for-29 as a base thief in his career. Hamilton hasn't made an error yet this year, and should be excellent defensively in the majors.

My main worry about him is strike zone judgment. He is fanning almost once a game, and isn't drawing many walks. So far it hasn't hurt him, and his natural bat speed and hand-eye coordination is so good that it may not bother him in A-ball. At higher levels, he'll have to get a better idea of the strike zone. I don't think Hamilton will ever be a walk machine, but he should cut down on his strikeouts with further experience, and become a classic low-walk, low-strikeout guy in the Vladimir Guerrero mode.

B.J. Garbe
Minnesota Twins
Position: OF Height: 6-2 Weight: 195Born: 2/3/81 Bats: Right Throws: Right

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS BA OBP SLG
1999 Elizabethton R 41 171 33 54 8 0 3 32 20 34 4 1 .316 .387 .415
2000 Quad City A 42 139 26 34 4 2 3 19 20 28 4 3 .245 .352 .367

Garbe, a high school outfielder from Moses Lake, Washington, was selected fifth overall in the draft. An outstanding athlete, he was ranked by most scouts as second only to Hamilton among high school position players. A bright kid, he had a Stanford scholarship offer, but the Twins convinced him to sign professionally.

Garbe is fast and strong. As a hitter, he makes better contact at the plate than Hamilton does, and demonstrates superior strike zone judgment. His walk rate is very good, and he doesn't fan too much. On the other hand, he doesn't drive the ball as well as Hamilton yet, a by-product of Garbe's level swing. Scouts expect his power numbers will increase as he matures. Garbe isn't likely to develop into a 40-homer slugger, but should be a high-average guy who gets on base a lot and hits a bunch of doubles, good in the three-hole.

The Appalachian League wasn't overly difficult for Garbe after he signed last year, although he didn't dominate the circuit as Hamilton did. This year in the Midwest League, his batting average was mired in the .220s for the first six weeks, but a recent hot streak has increased it to near .250, and it should continue to rise. Garbe isn't having trouble making contact, and his production should continue to improve as long as he maintains the strike zone.

Garbe is fast, but hasn't blossomed as a basestealer yet, and is well behind Hamilton in that regard. He has the range and arm to be an excellent defensive outfielder, but is still a bit error-prone at this stage.

The Twins should be in no hurry to rush Garbe. He needs to develop his power and complete the adjustment to pro pitching, but given his intelligence, work ethic, and athleticism, he should be able to do so. If you could combine Garbe's strike zone judgment with Hamilton's more developed power and speed, you'd have a prospect with no weaknesses. As it is, the Twins are happy they have Garbe in the fold.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. 		 


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