REPORT FILED: MAY 12
There seems to be a lot of young outfield talent in professional baseball today. Here are two more guys, currently in Double-A, who will rank as stars a few years from now if all goes well.
Corey Patterson
Chicago Cubs
Position: OF Height: 5-10 Weight: 175 Born: 8/13/79 Bats: Left Throws: Left
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1999 |
Lansing |
A |
112 |
475 |
94 |
152 |
35 |
17 |
20 |
79 |
25 |
85 |
33 |
9 |
.320 |
.358 |
.592 |
| 2000 |
West Tenn |
AA |
32 |
130 |
18 |
33 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
7 |
30 |
8 |
3 |
.254 |
.301 |
.477 |
In the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook, I rated Corey Patterson as the best prospect in baseball. Despite his slow start in Double-A, I still think it was the right call, and I still believe Patterson is on his way to stardom.
Scouts have loved Patterson since his Georgia high school days, and he was the third player drafted overall in 1998. His 1999 pro debut at Class A Lansing was little short of stellar. He hit .320, hit for lots of power, stole 33 bases at a good percentage, and demonstrated exceptional range in the outfield and a strong and accurate arm. He was named the top prospect in the Midwest League by Baseball America, and impressed everyone with both his work ethic and his instincts for the game of baseball. Patterson is a clear five-tool player, and has six of the Seven Skills already.
My only concern about his package is strike zone judgment. Although he didn't strike out that much in the Midwest League, he didn't walk much, either. He reminded some scouts of Kirby Puckett with his ability to put good wood on bad pitches. His lack of patience was a problem in major league spring training this year, and so far it is his biggest difficulty in Double-A.
Looking at his West Tennessee numbers, notice his 30 strikeouts in 130 at-bats; that's a lot, well ahead of his 1999 pace. His walk rate is actually about the same as it was last year, but while Patterson has been able to maintain good power and speed production, his batting average is mired in the .250s, resulting in a poor .301 on-base percentage.
Should Cubs fans be worried? I don't think so. First of all, Patterson started slowly last year as well, and can be expected to heat up as the weather warms. Secondly, he's still just 20 years old, very young for Double-A. Even if he hits .250 all year, the fact that he can hit Double-A pitching for power at his age shows he is a tremendous prospect. Thirdly, Patterson is a bright kid and knows he has to make adjustments. As the season progresses, I expect Patterson's patience will gradually improve, and with it his batting average and on-base percentage. He may not hit .320 this year, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't hit .290.
Overall, Corey Patterson is still on track for a terrific career, as long as he doesn't hire Corey Snyder as a hitting coach or something. There has been talk of him reaching the majors as soon as this year, but that timetable may slow down. He should be starting by April 2002, at the latest.
Alex Escobar
New York Mets
Position: OF Height: 6-1 Weight: 185 Born: 9/6/78 Bats: Right Throws: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1998 |
Columbia |
A |
112 |
416 |
90 |
129 |
23 |
5 |
27 |
91 |
54 |
133 |
49 |
7 |
.310 |
.393 |
.584 |
| 1999 |
Mets |
R |
2 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
.375 |
.444 |
.625 |
| 1999 |
St. Lucie |
A |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
.667 |
.600 |
1.667 |
| 2000 |
Binghamton |
AA |
22 |
83 |
17 |
26 |
6 |
1 |
5 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
3 |
0 |
.313 |
.394 |
.590 |
I have to admit, I was a bit skeptical about how Alex Escobar would do this year. Perhaps it is my inherent mistrust of New York hype; that and his shaky strike zone judgment in 1998 concerned me. He was all the rage as a prospect after his terrific year that season, but missed all but three games of 1999 with shoulder and back injuries. To be honest, when I heard that the Mets were going to start Escobar in Double-A this year, I thought he would struggle.
So far, I couldn't have been more wrong.
Escobar is ripping up the Double-A Eastern League, hitting for power and average at Binghamton, chipping in a few steals as well. He has struck out a bit too much, but he's also drawing his share of walks, which frankly I didn't expect. The ball flies off his bat when he makes contact. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage are all nearly identical this year to what he did in 1998. Usually there is some dropoff as players advance, especially when they miss an entire season of development. But the lost year hasn't seemed to hurt Escobar, and that in itself is a major factor in his favor.
I still think he could have some adjustment problems when he reaches the majors. But the vast majority of 21-year-olds who hit .300+ with power in Double-A turn into good-to-excellent major league hitters, and right now there is no reason not to expect the same from Escobar.
Escobar has the range and arm strength to handle center field, though in the past he has been a bit error-prone. I don't think there is anything wrong with his glove that experience won't cure.
I do think the Mets should be somewhat cautious about promoting him. He should probably stay in Double-A until at least the All-Star break, with a promotion to Triple-A in August in the cards if he continues to hit well. He still needs more in-game experience to make up for the time lost to injury.
Escobar could be ready for the majors in 2001, although 2002 is probably a firmer ETA to hold a permanent job. If he stays healthy and maintains some semblance of strike zone command, this guy will be an excellent player.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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ALSO SEE
Down on the Farm: The Seven Skills
Down on the Farm archive
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