REPORT FILED: MARCH 31
Pirates fans will enjoy the presence of two fresh faces in the lineup this year: new center fielder Chad Hermansen, and third baseman Aramis Ramirez, returning from Triple-A exile. It seems like both have been around forever as prospects, but they are both still very young.
Let's look at their outlook for this year and in the future.
Chad Hermansen
Pittsburgh Pirates
Position: OF Height: 6-2 Weight: 185 Born: 9/10/77 Bats: Right Throws: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1998 |
Nashville |
AAA |
126 |
458 |
81 |
118 |
26 |
5 |
28 |
78 |
50 |
152 |
21 |
4 |
.258 |
.334 |
.520 |
| 1999 |
Nashville |
AAA |
125 |
496 |
89 |
134 |
27 |
3 |
32 |
97 |
35 |
119 |
19 |
10 |
.270 |
.321 |
.530 |
| 1999 |
Pittsburgh |
NL |
19 |
60 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
19 |
2 |
2 |
.233 |
.324 |
.333 |
After two years of Triple-A cooking at Nashville, Hermansen is ready for the majors. He'll play center field in Pittsburgh this year, and barring a catastrophe he should be there at least for the next six years.
Hermansen entered pro ball in 1995, a first-round pick out of high school in Henderson, Nevada. A shortstop in high school, he was the 10th overall pick in the draft class, exciting scouts with his excellent athletic ability, as well as his raw power and speed.
He made quick progress, reaching Double-A as a 19-year old in 1997. Scouts did not doubt his ability to hit; the question was his defense. He was simply too error-prone as an infielder. He moved to the outfield in 1998, and while it took awhile to adjust defensively, he is now considered a sound glove man.
While scouts have always liked Hermansen's power, from a sabermetric perspective, his hitting has some flaws. His judgment of the strike zone is generally poor, and his overall production in 1999 was nearly identical to what he did in 1998. Normally you want to see improvement when a player repeats a level, not stagnation. That said, he was still very young to be in Triple-A, and anyone who shows 30-homer power at that level, at that age, is a fine prospect.
I still have questions about how Hermansen will do in 2000, and I think Pirates fans (and the front office) should keep their expectations realistic. Given 500 at-bats, Hermansen should hit 20+ home runs, and should also be in double-digits in steals. The key, however, will be his strike zone judgment. If he flails at stuff outside the strike zone too often, he'll have a hard time keeping his batting average above .250, which would make it difficult to post a nice on-base percentage to go with the slugging.
My guess is that Hermansen's rookie year will be one of ups and downs. He'll hit .240-.250, with an OBP around .300, but a SLG in the .440 range. That's not great, but for a player his age, it will do. He will have a foundation of a good career to build on, but will need the proper instruction and approach to become a truly productive player.
Aramis Ramirez
Pittsburgh Pirates
Position: 3B Height: 6-1 Weight: 215 Born: 6/25/78 Bats: Right Throws: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1998 |
Nashville |
AAA |
48 |
168 |
19 |
46 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
18 |
24 |
28 |
0 |
2 |
.274 |
.374 |
.423 |
| 1998 |
Pittsburgh |
NL |
72 |
251 |
23 |
59 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
18 |
72 |
0 |
1 |
.235 |
.296 |
.351 |
| 1999 |
Nashville |
AAA |
131 |
460 |
92 |
151 |
35 |
1 |
21 |
74 |
73 |
56 |
5 |
3 |
.328 |
.425 |
.546 |
| 1999 |
Pittsburgh |
NL |
18 |
56 |
2 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
.179 |
.254 |
.250 |
Ramirez isn't a rookie anymore, due to the 72 games he played for the Pirates in 1998. But he still qualifies as a "prospect," since he hasn't established a true level of performance.
How good is this guy, really? Based on what he has done in the minors, he is really good. While he struggled for the Pirates in 1998, people forget that he was essentially jumping from A-ball. He had just 48 games of Triple-A, with no intervening Double-A exposure, when he reached the majors that year. It's no wonder he had trouble. Going back to the minors last year was probably good for him, but the basic problem was that the Pirates rushed him in the first place. He wasn't destroyed by the experience, thankfully.
At his best, Ramirez shows exceptional power to all fields, superb strike zone judgment, and the ability to hit for average. He certainly had no flaws in his numbers at Nashville last year. While your eyes are naturally drawn to the .328 average, the 35 doubles and 21 home runs, the most important numbers he posted were these: 73 walks, 56 strikeouts. That's simply tremendous strike zone judgment, and shows that he isn't just a masher: he knew what he was doing. And for someone to do that in Triple-A at age 21 is rare indeed.
Some in the Pirate organization have criticized Ramirez for excessive weight gain, as well as sloppy defense at third. The former doesn't seem to be a real problem, while his glove work is considered improved. He won't win any gold gloves right now, but if he hits as well as he is capable, he won't have to.
Something that people overlook: Ramirez is still just a pup. He's actually nine months younger than Hermansen. Any player who shows this level of hitting ability at this age is a valuable property, to say the least. For 2000, I expect Ramirez will hit .265-.275, with 20+ homers and 50+ walks, not awesome by today's standards, but a fine season for someone his age. The best is yet to come.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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