Sunday, November 11 Where does McGwire rank? By David Schoenfield ESPN.com |
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Well, that will be some Hall of Fame induction ceremony in the summer of 2007: Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, maybe Rickey Henderson and now Mark McGwire. Where does McGwire rank among baseball's all-time great players? Before digging into that question, let's point out that even though Big Mac hit .187 and struck out 118 times in 299 at-bats, he was still a moderately productive offensive player in 2001. For instance, compare him to the two first basemen who started in the World Series, Mark Grace and Tino Martinez. AB H HR RBI Run BB AVG OBP SLG McGwire 299 56 29 64 48 56 .187 .316 .492 Grace 476 142 15 78 66 67 .298 .386 .466 Martinez 589 165 34 113 89 42 .280 .329 .501 In 364 plate appearances, McGwire had 112 runs plus RBI. In 553 plate appearances, Grace had 144 runs plus RBI. Let's prorate the totals for the three to Grace's 553 PAs: PA R + RBI Outs McGwire 553 170 389 Grace 553 144 347 Martinez 553 176 393 The point isn't that McGwire was a great hitter; after all, Grace and Martinez weren't exactly All-Stars in 2001. The point is that McGwire, despite hitting .187, was still creating runs, at a similar rate to two players who aren't being pushed into retirement any time soon. But that's what made McGwire so good during his career: due to his power (he averaged a home run every 10.6 at-bats, the highest rate of all time) and ability to draw walks, he still produced runs at a high rate, despite his lack of foot speed or sometimes mediocre batting averages (.263 career). When he did raise his batting average -- from 1995 through 2000, he hit .274, .312, .274, .298, .278 and .304 -- he put together a devastating stretch of offensive seasons, spiked by his 1998 season when he hit 70 home runs with a .470 on-base percentage and .752 slugging percentage. His 1.225 OPS (on-base + slugging) that year ranks as the third-best total in National League history, behind Barry Bonds in 2001 and Rogers Hornsby in 1925. Big Mac should have won the MVP Award that year; he finished second to Sammy Sosa. That was the closest he came to winning the award: he finished in the top 10 five times (1987, 6th; 1992, 4th; 1996, 7th; 1998, 2nd; 1999, 5th). He also was spectacular in 1997, but split time between two leagues. Injuries shortened otherwise MVP-caliber years in 1995 and 2000. In the end, it's those heel and foot and knee injuries that prevented McGwire from reaching 600 home runs or 700 home runs or even challenging Henry Aaron's 755. In his just-published "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract," Bill James rates McGwire as the third-best first baseman ever, behind Lou Gehrig and and Jimmie Foxx and just ahead of Jeff Bagwell and Eddie Murray. He rates McGwire as the 31st-best player of all time. The comparisons to Bagwell and Murray are interesting, since both of their careers overlapped some of McGwire's. Here are career totals for the three: G AB H HR RBI Runs BB SB AVG OBP SLG McGwire 1874 6187 1626 583 1414 1167 1317 12 .263 .394 .588 Bagwell 1637 5949 1803 349 1223 1199 1098 178 .303 .415 .554 Murray 3026 11336 3255 504 1917 1627 1333 110 .287 .359 .476 As you can see, Bagwell, despite arriving in the majors four years after McGwire, has similar career numbers already (other than home runs), thanks to his great durability and McGwire's injuries. Murray, of course, had his peak years in the 1980s, a much different era than the high-scoring late '90s. Murray did produce some impressive career numbers due to his longevity, but he was also a great hitter in his prime. One way to look at this is to compare top-10 league rankings for the three players in MVP balloting, OPS, runs scored and RBI.
McGwire
Bagwell
Murray Considering Bagwell is a far superior baserunner and a better defensive player, it's fairly apparent that he will eventually pass McGwire on the all-time lists. Murray is a little tougher comparison. He didn't dominate to the extent McGwire did in his best years, but he did finish in the top five in the MVP voting six times, compared to McGwire's three. Given his obvious advantage in career length, I'd probably give Murray the slight edge. However, it is McGwire who will be remembered, not only for the Great Home Run Chase of 1998, but for the mythic status he developed in his final years. With the exception of Babe Ruth, Josh Gibson and maybe Mickey Mantle, nobody ever hit the ball as far as Big Mac. In 1996, he was with Oakland playing Seattle in the Kingdome. At the point, only about 10 balls had ever been hit into the second deck in left field in 19 years. McGwire did it twice in one inning. In 1999, I was in Detroit to write a story on the final season of Tiger Stadium. The Tigers were playing the Cardinals and when Big Mac stepped into the cage for batting practice, I halted my reporting duties and stepped up as close I could to watch him. He launched long ball after long ball, including a couple onto the roof and a couple over the roof. I've never seen anything like it. David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
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