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Wednesday, September 5
Updated: September 6, 12:25 PM ET
 
ESPN analysts weigh in on Bonds

ESPN.com

ESPN baseball analysts Dave Campbell, Orel Hershiser and Joe Morgan give their thoughts on Barry Bonds' two chases -- one for the regular-season home run record, and one for the National League pennant:

Dave Campbell
Campbell

The home run race is an ebb and flow kind of thing, and there's no reason Barry Bonds can't get hot. If he does, we could have two new home run kings in the span of three years.

Pitchers will probably continue to pitch Bonds the same way they have all season, meaning a lot of walks. With the exception of the Padres and the Rockies, he's playing all contending teams -- the Diamondbacks, Astros and Dodgers -- who happen to have exceptional pitching. And depending upon who's throwing for the Rockies, he could face a tough matchup there as well. Bonds has 15 games against contending teams, and if the Padres get hot they could get into the mix as well. There are not a lot of soft touches the rest of the way.

One thing he has going for him is that six of his remaining games are in the two most homer-fiendly ballparks -- the Giants have three games at Colorado's Coors Field beginning Friday, followed by three at Houston's Enron Field.

Another thing Bonds has going for him is that in six of his remaining games the opposing manager is Larry Dierker. Since he's taken the Astros' helm, Dierker has given the fewest intentional walks of any team in the NL. As a former pitcher, Dierker has always said he doesn't like the free pass.

Mark McGwire walked 162 times the year he hit 70, and Bonds is right on to match that pace. But like McGwire, Bonds is a very disciplined hitter. They will both wait for their pitch in the zone and not offer at anything else.

Because they are all fighting for playoff spots, it will be in the gameplans of the Dodgers, Astros and Diamondbacks to not let Bonds beat them. If the game, and therefore a playoff spot, is on the line, any one of those clubs would pitch around Bonds -- regardless of the home run race.

Orel Hershiser
Hershiser

Mark McGwire was not playing on a pennant-chasing team in 1998, and many of his interviews revealed that he was, of course, disappointed in that fact. He didn't like that the hoopla was about him and not about his team making a run at the playoffs. Barry Bonds has the same attitude -- he is much more concerned with his team winning and getting to the World Series than he is with his own record chase. The difference is, Bonds has to worry about both.

There is also the differences in the schedules between '98 and 2001. This year, with the imbalanced schedule, teams play their own division more. Bonds is in the pennant race and has to play against his own division in September more than McGwire had to. That makes it sort of a double whammy for Bonds as far as the pitch selection he's going to receive and the different goals he'll have for each at-bat.

While there is no doubt that being in a pennant race will affect the kinds of pitches Bonds receives, the key to Bonds' chase is -- and always has been -- how Rich Aurilia, Jeff Kent and now, Andres Galarraga, are hitting. The more guys on base, the more guys are swinging the bat well, the more pitches Bonds will see. We've already seen how the pennant races have affected both Bonds and Sammy Sosa -- those guys are doing miraculous things when you consider the limited amount of hittable pitches they've seen.

Joe Morgan
Morgan

Because Barry Bonds leads by six home runs, I still think he will win the National League home-run race. But he doesn't get an opportunity to hit as much as Sammy Sosa does. He is a more selective hitter than the free-swinging Sosa.

Much will depend on who gets more pitches to hit down the stretch. If the Cubs fall way back in the NL Central race, Sosa will get even more pitches to hit than he does now. Pitchers will challenge him more and think they can get him out.

At the same time, if the Giants remains in a pennant race for the remainder of the season, Bonds will get even fewer pitches to hit. Sosa is a streakier hitter than Bonds is. He is liable to hit three in a game, like he did twice during the month of August. So if Sosa gets hot, you never know what will happen.




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