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Mariners vs. Yankees |
Mets vs. Cardinals
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Wednesday, October 18
Do teams with more rest win more in the playoffs?
By Jeff Hildebrand
Special to ESPN.com
Editor's note: The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) writes for ESPN.com Insider. You can check out their web site at baseballprospectus.com.
A popular comment after the Yankees took five games to beat the A's was that the Mariners would have an advantage in the American League Championship Series, thanks to two extra days of rest. The days off would be a needed break for a team that had been playing under the gun for a month, and the team's sweep of the White Sox would let them set up their pitching rotation perfectly for the ALCS.
That certainly makes sense, but it's also reasonable to ask how much of a benefit the days off are. If a real benefit exists, teams with extra days off should do better in the subsequent series than teams who earn less rest.
For the most part, teams have the same number of days off going into the first round of the postseason, so we will only look at cases where teams have a different number of days off between rounds of the playoffs. Since the League Championship Series was introduced in 1969, there have been 26 times when opponents in a postseason series have had a different number of off days after their previous series. The series are listed here, along with the teams, the number of days off and the result of the series.
Year Series More Rested Team Less Rested Team Winner
1971 WS Baltimore (3) Pittsburgh (2) Pittsburgh
1972 WS Cincinnati (2) Oakland (1) Oakland
1973 WS New York (N) (2) Oakland (1) Oakland
1976 WS Cincinnati (3) New York (A) (1) Cincinnati
1977 WS Los Angeles (2) New York (A) (1) New York
1979 WS Pittsburgh (4) Baltimore (3) Pittsburgh
1980 WS Kansas City (3) Philadelphia (1) Philadelphia
1981 ALCS Oakland (3) New York (A) (1) New York
1984 WS Detroit (3) San Diego (1) Detroit
1987 WS Minnesota (4) St. Louis (2) Minnesota
1988 WS Oakland (5) Los Angeles (2) Los Angeles
1989 WS Oakland (5) San Francisco (4) Oakland
1990 WS Oakland (5) Cincinnati (3) Cincinnati
1991 WS Minnesota (5) Atlanta (1) Minnesota
1993 WS Toronto (3) Philadelphia (2) Toronto
1995 ALCS Cleveland (3) Seattle (1) Seattle
1995 NLCS Cincinnati (3) Atlanta (2) Atlanta
1995 WS Atlanta (6) Cleveland (3) Atlanta
1996 WS New York (A) (6) Atlanta (2) New York
1997 ALCS Baltimore (2) Cleveland (1) Cleveland
1997 WS Florida (3) Cleveland (2) Florida
1998 ALCS New York (A) (3) Cleveland (2) New York
1998 NLCS Atlanta (3) San Diego (2) San Diego
1998 WS New York (A) (3) San Diego (2) New York
1999 ALCS New York (A) (3) Boston (1) New York
1999 WS New York (A) (4) Atlanta (3) New York
At first glance, the theory appears to have some merit. The better-rested team won 15 of the 26 series in question, so they would seem to have a small advantage. The advantage seems to apply only to teams who have at least two extra days off: those teams went 8-4 in the following series, while the teams who only had one extra day off were an even 7-7. That seems like fairly strong evidence. Seems.
Those who work with statistics for a living will always have to deal with the concept of "statistical significance" or, phrased in more everyday terms, the question of whether what we see is really there or if it's just a fluke due to random chance. With only 26 series to look at, we'd have to have pretty strong evidence to rule out random chance. Using the standard ideas of what constitutes enough evidence, anything less than 18 series wins for the better-rested team leaves the issue open to question, so any conclusions about teams having an advantage should be considered suspect.
For those who would rather not get into the details of statistical theory, the point could be made by looking at a couple of the specific series. If Lonnie Smith hadn't been deked by Chuck Knoblauch in the 1991 World Series, and if Jose Mesa had been able to hold the lead in the ninth inning of the seventh game of the 1997 Series, then this list would be split perfectly even.
If we were to restrict things a little further and look only at the series in which the less-rested team had a single day off, our list shrinks to 11 series and we find that the team supposedly at a disadvantage actually wins more often than they lose, six series to five. In the four cases in which one team has two days' rest and their opponent has only one day, the less-rested team has won every time. It's an amusing fluke stat, but ultimately a meaningless one; rest is not a factor in determining who wins postseason series.
Jeff Hildebrand may be reached at jhildebrand@baseballprospectus.com.
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