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Yankees vs. A's |
Mariners vs. White Sox |
Braves vs. Cardinals |
Mets vs. Giants
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Monday, October 9
Five questions: Braves vs. Cardinals
By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com
1. Which team is helped by the extra day off?
Because the TV people want three games to televise Tuesday, the Braves and
Cardinals are this year's winners of the bizarre every-other-day scheduling
format for the first three games.
|  | | St. Louis could see Greg Maddux twice in a five-game series. |
They play Tuesday, are off Wednesday, play Thursday, are off Friday and then
finish the series by playing three days in a row, if necessary.
The Cardinals had to play a division series under that format in 1996 -- and
swept the Padres. The Braves have never done it. Still, no team stands to
benefit more from this schedule than Atlanta.
Because of the extra off day, the Braves would get to pitch Greg Maddux
(Games 1 and 4) and Tom Glavine (Games 2 and 5) in four of the five games,
on normal rest. And when those two started this year, the Braves played .643
baseball (45-25). When anyone else started, their winning percentage was
exactly 100 points lower (50-42, .543).
"You'd have to give the pitching edge to Maddux and Glavine," said an NL
scout. "And the way they've been pitching of late, I've never seen the two
of them pitch so well together."
So the erratic back end of their rotation will need to contribute just one
start -- most likely by Kevin Millwood in Game 3.
Meanwhile, if the Cardinals have any starting-pitching edge in this series --
and that's dubious -- it would be the depth of their rotation. But that won't
come into play in this series.
"Darryl Kile," said one scout, "is the big man in this series for St. Louis." Kile won't pitch the first game, however, manager Tony La Russa announced Monday.
2. How much will the Cardinals miss Mike Matheny?
He might not seem like the most magical name on that Cardinals roster, but
when Mike Matheny ended his season by being a little too careless opening
his birthday presents last week, he inflicted a very damaging blow to his
team.
Matheny threw out a Pudge-esque 53 percent of the unenlightened opponents
who tried to steal a base on him this season. And no other starting catcher
in the National League even threw out 40 percent.
His replacement, Carlos Hernandez, nailed only 28 percent (7 of 25). And
that could play right into the hands of a Braves team that was second in the
league in steals -- but stole just four bases in six tries in seven games
against St. Louis this year.
"Matheny, to me, was the heart and soul of that defense," said an NL scout.
"They don't need his bat. But he led that pitching staff all year. So losing
him really hurts them."
3. Rocker vs. Veres
We started this Braves season talking about John Rocker. We ended this
season talking about Rocker. For different reasons, fortunately.
But once the Braves proved they could play over the Sally Jesse Raphael
portion of the Rocker sideshow, all that mattered -- all that has ever
mattered -- is whether this guy could get the 27th out in a big game.
Suddenly, after Sunday, there are doubts again about whether he can do that.
Before Chipper Jones' error that opened the door for a seven-run Colorado ninth, Rocker hadn't been scored on since Aug. 22 (10
2/3 IP, 17 SO). He'd given up a run in only five of his previous 25 outings
(25 IP, 18 H, 26 SO). And he'd walked just one hitter since Aug. 16 (15
appearances).
Then that Jeff Cirillo ground ball skipped off Chipper's glove. Rocker
turned it into a seven-run inning. And now he has to head into the playoffs
under a whole new glare of big-time scrutiny.
"No matter how good his numbers look, he's not the Rocker of last year,"
said one scout. "As cocky as he might act, all this other stuff has hurt
him. Every time he goes to a new city, he's got to battle all the elements -- off the field, just going to the field, for that matter. And to me, I still
think it's taken away from his concentration."
But his counterpart, Dave Veres, is also a question mark. Veres was scored
on in four of his last 13 appearances and has had only one 1-2-3 save since
the All-Star break. So while he has gotten the job done (29 for 36), the
game isn't over just because he walks out of the bullpen.
"Of all the closers in the playoffs," said one scout, "Veres is the one guy
who isn't in the top echelon. He's too unpredictable. He would scare me
going into a game that big."
4. Will Big Mac contribute?
All those years of waiting for this moment, and now, with a chance to walk
back onto the October stage, Mark McGwire is forced to turn into Dave
Hansen.
He may be the scariest pinch-hitter on any team's bench. But he's still just
a cameo player -- and the Cardinals have to be careful how they use him.
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Just his presence, when he steps up to the plate, puts a little fear in any
pitcher. But it's to your advantage to pitch around him,
because if he gets on first, they have to use two players every time he gets
into a game, because they have to use somebody to pinch-run for him. They
did it all of September, and with the expanded rosters, that was no problem.
But it can be a problem in October. ” |
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— NL scout, on Mark McGwire |
"Just his presence, when he steps up to the plate, puts a little fear in any
pitcher," said an NL scout. "But it's to your advantage to pitch around him,
because if he gets on first, they have to use two players every time he gets
into a game, because they have to use somebody to pinch-run for him. They
did it all of September, and with the expanded rosters, that was no problem.
But it can be a problem in October."
So the Cardinals will almost have to save McGwire for home-run situations
only. And incredibly, of all the members of the 500-homer club who got more
than 50 postseason at-bats, McGwire has the third-worst home-run ratio (4
HR, 114 AB, one every 28.5). Only Willie Mays (1 HR, 89 AB) and Mike Schmidt
(4 HR, 140 AB, one every 35.0) are worse.
But the Cardinals have survived Big Mac's absence to go 37-21 after Aug. 1
because St. Louis' magic baseball potion has somehow turned Will Clark into
the Will the Thrill of 1989 again.
Clark hit .345, with 12 homers and 42 RBI, in 51 games as a Cardinal. Which
was three more homers and 14 more RBI than he had in 79 games as an Oriole
this year. Clark is a professional hitter who also has terrorized the Braves
this season (.448, with five homers). But he's not Big Mac -- heck, who is?
"Will Clark has done a good job, but the other guy is an impact player,"
said one scout. "You have to respect Will Clark. But McGwire has a presence
Clark can't possibly have."
5. Will home field matter?
Will the Braves be haunted by losing home-field advantage in this series
because of their final-out meltdown Sunday?
They could be -- in all sorts of ways. Their team average is 16 points lower
on the road (.264) than at home (.280). Their ERA is slightly higher on the
road (4.13) than at home (3.98). Their winning percentage is 95 points lower
on the road (.543) than at home (.638).
It also takes something off the Braves' luster as longtime defending champs
to lose a game that meaningful in such an unsightly way. It casts another
shadow on Rocker. And it's one more small advantage for the Cardinals, a
team that proved in the '87 World Series how important just one extra
postseason home game can be.
"We're talking about a three-out-of-five series," said one scout. "And I'm a
firm believer that when you're playing three out of five, every little edge
is a plus. If it's a close series -- and it should be if Kile pitches well in
Game 1 -- that could play a big role if it comes down to Game 5."
On the other hand, home-field advantage has had little to do with which team
won these division series in the past. The Braves have gone 7-1 in road
games in their previous five division series. And back in the '96 NLCS, the
Braves had to play an elimination game in St. Louis in Game 5, down three
games to one -- and won it 14-0.
So we know Atlanta is eminently capable of winning anywhere. Still, that sea
of red in Busch Stadium can look awfully imposing in a big game.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com
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