The Numbers
	2002 record: 79-83, .488 (16th overall) Runs scored: 699, 12th in NL Runs allowed: 763, 12th in NL Run differential: -64 (20th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.49, tied for 11th in NL Bullpen ERA: 4.14, 12th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $41.9 million (25th overall) Attendance: 813,000 (29th overall) 3-year record: 234-251, .482 (17th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
The club finished at 79-83, ahead of expectations. Second baseman Luis Castillo hit .305, swiped 48 bases, and made the All-Star team. Kevin Millar, now set to play in Japan, hit .306 with 41 doubles. Corner men Mike Lowell (another All-Star) and Derrek Lee combined for 79 doubles and 51 homers. A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett continued to flash overpowering stuff, while Braden Looper pitched well as the closer down the stretch. The trade of Cliff Floyd brought in several strong prospects.

What went wrong?
Despite a decent team on the field, attendance was horrible, finishing just a hair ahead of the Expos. Front office chaos in the wake of last winter's ownership switchero between Jeffry Loria and John Henry made it hard to sell tickets, or give the organization any direction until late in the year. Starters Burnett, Beckett, and Brad Penny all struggled with nagging health problems. Starter Julian Tavarez gave up 188 hits in 154 innings. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez was injured most of the year. Outfielder Preston Wilson was erratic, while catcher Charles Johnson looked washed up. Both have now been traded.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. The biggest decisions impacting the Marlins last year were made in the stuffy suites of Major League Baseball. The ownership swap between Loria and Henry threw everything into disarray, especially in the departments of public relations and ticket sales. The South Florida Market should be a good one, but the fallout from the Wayne Huizenga fire sale following the 1997 World Series victory still contaminates the area.

2. The heavy reliance on young pitching is a double-edged sword. Burnett, Beckett, and Penny all have ace potential, but all have had a hard time staying healthy.

3. The trades of Floyd and Ryan Dempster were frustrating to fans still haunted by the ghosts of past betrayals. But the Marlins seemed to get good value in return.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. What direction is this club taking? Rumors have swirled recently about a possible Bartolo Colon trade, though this seems less likely now than it did a few days ago. Penny's health is said to be a major worry, though Penny denies any serious problems. Why bring in Colon, himself a serious injury risk, especially since doing so would require trading several hot prospects? The creative three-way trade involving the Braves and Rockies shows that the Marlins will try unconventional things. That's nice, but unconventional isn't always the same thing as "smart."

	Mike Lowell Third baseman Florida Marlins Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 160 597 88 24 92 .276

2. With all the emphasis on the pitching staff, it looks like the offense is being neglected. Letting Millar go to Japan robs Florida of its best overall hitter. Lee and Lowell are good hitters, and Castillo is disruptive at the top of the order, but that trio can't carry the team by itself. An outfield of Todd Hollandsworth, Juan Pierre, and Juan Encarnacion is hardly contention material. Any gains in pitching may be offset by problems with the hitting attack.

3. Ownership, stadium, and attendance issues continue to hover over this club. As stated above, this should be a good market, but the fact that it isn't has more to do with the way the club has been run since 1997, than it does with anything wrong with the fans. Is Loria the right owner to bind the PR wounds that MLB inflicted on itself in South Florida?

Can expect to play better
Lee almost doubled his walk rate last year. At age 27, his big breakout, if it's ever going to happen, could be this year. Lowell banged 44 doubles last year; he could also be on the verge of a bigger season. Burnett and Beckett have ace/dominator stuff, if they can stay healthy long enough to learn to use it. Penny isn't far behind.

Can expect to play worse
The Marlins are counting on Pierre to not become the Neifi Perez of center fielders. Unfortunately, he hit just .247 with a .297 OBP away from Coors Field last year. The other import from Colorado, Hollandsworth, hit .224 in road games last year, though some of that was accomplished while he played for Texas. Any of the pitchers could end up in this category, too, if they get hurt or suffer more subtle effects of overuse.

Stats Corner
A.J. Burnett (above) won a career high 12 games and was second in the NL in complete games (seven) in 2002. Derrek Lee played in all 162 games and led the Marlins in home runs (27). Braden Looper converted the final 13 of his save opportunities. Luis Castillo had 48 stolen bases to top the majors for the second time in the last three seasons.

Projected lineup
2B Luis Castillo
CF Juan Pierre
C Ivan Rodriguez
1B Derrek Lee
3B Mike Lowell
RF Juan Encarnacion
LF Todd Hollandsworth
SS Alex Gonzalez

Rotation
A.J. Burnett
Josh Beckett
Brad Penny
Mark Redman
Michael Tejera/Justin Wayne

Closer
Braden Looper/Tim Spooneybarger

A closer look
So, why didn't Josh Beckett win the Cy Young Award last year? After all, according to all the experts (including me), he was the best young pitcher to come out of the minors in a dozen years. Why did he fail to dominate the league?

First of all, Beckett was far from a failure. Being limited to 21 starts by blisters hurt his "counting stats," but on a per-inning basis, he did just fine, posting a 113/44 K/BB ratio in 108 innings. If the blisters hadn't intervened and he'd thrown, say, 190 innings while maintaining the same strikeout rate, he'd have been close to 200 Ks, and the casual fan would have a better sense of exactly how dominating Beckett is. Anyone who can strike out a hitter-per-inning in the major leagues at age 22, while showing reasonable control, is a special pitcher. His K/IP mark was fifth-best in the National League, 40 percent better than his peers. Only Randy Johnson, Mark Prior, Curt Schilling, and Jason Schmidt were better.

Secondly, Beckett's component numbers, his hits, extra-base hits, and walks given up, imply performance better than what his ERA actually turned out to be. His "expected ERA" (xERA) was almost 40 points better than his "real" ERA. Fantasy expert Ron Shandler, in his excellent 2003 Baseball Forecaster, figures Beckett's 2002 Expected ERA at 3.77, rather than the 4.12 he actually recorded. A pitcher with an xERA significantly better than his real ERA is a good bet to improve the following year, since the disappointing ERA is usually a result of bad luck, weak teammates, or both. Adjusted for league and park context, Beckett's real ERA was three percent worse than the National League average last year. But if his ERA had been closer to his xERA, it would have been slightly better than league, another good sign for a pitcher his age.

Basically, there is nothing wrong with Josh Beckett that more experience won't cure. He's already got one of the best statistical sets in baseball, in terms of K/IP, and his control is improving. The objective numbers line up quite nicely with his subjective scouting reports, which remain uniformly positive. Scouts remain intrigued with his excellent fastball, and infatuated with his big curve.

But the bugaboo, of course, is health. Can Beckett stay healthy long enough to make the final adjustments and emerge as one of the best pitchers in baseball?

Last year's blister problems were certainly annoying. However, blister problems aren't bad compared to, say, a blown elbow or a shredded shoulder. The blisters kept him to 108 innings, highly irritating for heavily-invested fantasy owners, but good in the sense that it kept him from being overworked. Beckett had shoulder trouble in the minor leagues, and although surgery was avoided, keeping him healthy must be an absolute priority for the Marlins. They talk a good game about it, but it can be awfully tempting to leave Beckett in the game when he's got his good stuff going, even beyond the point of prudence. Josh Beckett didn't quite live up to expectations last year because he's a human being, and expectations were probably too great to begin with. But he did better than people think, and all the signs, statistical and otherwise, point to stardom just around the corner. All he needs is some finishing polish, and good health.

Assuming the blisters can be dealt with, Beckett could emerge as a true dominator at any time. How will manager Jeff Torborg respond to this if/when it happens? Will the Marlins expect Beckett to shoulder an ace-like workload if he starts pitching like an ace on a per-inning basis? If they do, they increase the risk that he'll get hurt. How Torborg responds to this challenge will be a crucial test of his managerial skill. Even if the Marlins do the right thing and keep Beckett's workload reasonable, it doesn't guarantee that he won't get hurt. But that doesn't make it any less imperative to take good care of this crown jewel.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.