Four weeks to go until the June baseball draft. And if this draft is a roulette wheel in the best of times, it's looking like a roulette wheel with no winners this time around.
"In all the years I've been involved in this," says Phillies scouting
director Mike Arbuckle, "I've never seen a year where the draft was this muddled at the top."
Two months ago, Baseball America projected Cal third baseman Xavier Nady as the top pick. At this point, between his failure to hit like a No. 1 and Scott Boras' expensive presence as his representative, some clubs now think Nady could drop to the middle or even the bottom of the first round. But he has plenty of company.
The stock of Arizona right-ander Ben Diggins, Clemson outfielder Patrick Boyd and virtually all of the top-rated high school players also has yo-yoed like the NASDAQ. And the result is that, unless someone has a big month, the top of this draft could be dictated more by signability than talent.
Florida picks first. And -- at least this week -- the Marlins are believed to be leaning toward Hanover (Pa.) High School left-hander Mark Phillips. One scouting report on Phillips: "Strong. Athletic. Clocked at 88-92 on his fastball. Going to have a real hammer for a curveball. But in a normal year, no way he's the No. 1 pick."
Then come the Twins and Cubs. And they are said by other scouts and
scouting directors to "have no idea right now" whom they're picking.
So here's a look at where some of the most highly touted players stand at the moment:
Nady: Projected as a big-time slugger. But hasn't impressed scouts, despite .335 average and 19 homers in 191 at-bats. "If he hits," says one scout, "he's a top, top guy. But too many clubs have too many questions about his bat. Looks like a kid who thinks too much at the plate."
Diggins: Expected to be a dominator, at 6-foot-7, 220. But Diggins is only 9-3, 3.55, and has allowed 98 hits in 101 1/3 innings. Which doesn't make you a No. 1 pick in the country. "Good arm," says one scouting director, "but hasn't really developed the way you'd hope. Doesn't have a secondary pitch. Hasn't gotten much better since high school."
Scott Heard: Big high school catcher from San Diego was rated by Baseball America as the preseason No. 1 high schooler in America. Looks as if he could catch and throw in the big leagues right now. But ... "Too much concern about his bat. He's going to play. Can really throw and catch. But looks like he might be a light-hitting guy."
There is still a month for all this to work itself out. But many clubs at the top are getting edgier by the day.
"I think people will wind up working the phones until draft morning,"
Arbuckle says. "If it stays muddled at the top, then it stays muddled all the way down."
It's already the time to start thinking about which pitchers will be available as the July trading deadline approaches. Here's one potential list, assembled from several interested clubs:
Starters
Sterling Hitchcock, Brad Radke, Scott Erickson, Bobby Jones, Pedro Astacio, Francisco Cordero and either John Halama or Brett Tomko.
Relievers
Roberto Hernandez, Bob Wickman, Mark Guthrie, Eddie Guardardo and
possibly John Wetteland.
The most intriguing name believed to be available right now is Hernandez, who has had a rough year and hasn't been a happy camper. As the season in Tampa Bay unravels, almost anything is possible. One potential destination for Hernandez is Arizona, if closer Matt Mantei's shoulder doesn't come around.
Another pitcher on the market already is Texas' Mark Clark. But at $5 million, no one is jumping. Texas needs outfield help, with Rusty Greer and Gabe Kapler down. And players on the Rangers' shopping list include Dave Martinez, Ron Gant, Darren Bragg, Michael Tucker and David Dellucci.
The Phillies would move Gant right now to open left field for Pat Burrell. But with Curt Schilling putting the pieces of their rotation back in place, the Phillies have no interest in Clark. They're believed to like left-hander Matt Perisho, who could relieve or start down the road.
One scout's review of the struggling Jose Lima: "He's throwing now the way he did in spring training a couple of years ago, when they almost released him. Everything's dragging. Everything's flat. His delivery's totally out of whack, and it doesn't look like he wants to admit it. He hasn't made any adjustments. I guess he doesn't think he needs to. ... I think it's all caught up to him -- the banquet circuit, the hoopla, the contract, all of it.
Howe SportsData's list of the six players born in the '80s who already are in Double-A: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs (born June 1, 1981). Alex Fernandez, Mariners (born May 15, 1981). Sean Burroughs, Padres (born Sept. 12, 1980). Felipe Lopez, Blue Jays (born May 12, 1980). Abraham Nunez, Marlins (born Feb. 5, 1980). Jackson Melian, Yankees (born Jan. 7, 1980).
Speaking of the travails of the draft, the Cardinals started spring training thinking former Stanford star Chad Hutchinson might sneak his way onto the team. He's now pitched himself back to Double-A after an attack of Steve Blass-itis. He walked 27 in 8 1/3 innings at Memphis, and left with a 25.92 ERA.
Cleveland reliever Scott Kamieniecki has only one regret about accusing Pedro Martinez of hiding in the dugout while the benches emptied last Sunday: "I don't think I'll be running for mayor of Boston anytime soon," he said.
Finally, there was an odd twist to Sparky Anderson Day in Detroit last weekend. After leading Anderson to believe they would retire his number, the Tigers didn't. Club president John McHale then suggested that decision had to do with Anderson choosing a Reds cap instead of a Tigers cap for his Hall of Fame plaque. Sparky's careful take on this development: "I have no right ever to judge what they may do."
Useless information dept.
This week's important news from our Name of the Game Dept.: Thursday's match-up of Esteban Loaiza and Esteban Yan in Tampa Bay was the long-awaited first meeting ever of two starting pitchers named Esteban. (There hasn't been a Steve-vs. Steve match-up all year, by the way.)
The Blue Jays just played back-to-back games against teams managed by a Manuel (Jerry and Charlie) -- and neither was in the ballpark (Jerry because of a suspension, Charlie because of surgery).
And on Tuesday, Toronto starter Frank Castillo won his first game since July 23, 1998 -- in the first game in history in which a Castillo (Albert) caught a Castillo (Frank). "Fans were asking us by the dugout whether we were cousins," said Albert. Uh, they're not.
Reds reliever Elmer Dessens took one for the club Thursday and gave up 14 hits in relief, in a 14-1 loss to the Phillies. The Elias Sports Bureau's Ken Hirdt reports that's the most hits allowed by any pitcher in relief since Bob Forsch twirled an 18-hitter in relief against the Reds, on Aug. 3, 1989.
We have a winner in the Last Guy to Get a Hit competition. He's Texas' Scott Sheldon, who got into a game Wednesday in Tampa Bay after second baseman Luis Alicea had to leave with an injury. Sheldon then singled in the ninth inning off Bryan Rekar. Of the other two finalists, Baltimore's Jesse Garcia eliminated himself by getting sent to the minors and Montreal's Lenny Webster got a hit Monday in Colorado. So Sheldon became the last man on an opening-day roster to get a hit. Our heartiest congratulations.
Hard to say how this is possible, but the team with the worst record in baseball -- the Tigers -- has more pitchers who have won a game than the team with the best record in baseball -- the Braves. Seven Braves pitchers have won, but the Tigers have eight (including seven one-game winners).
In Wednesday's Giants-Mets game, the first batter of the day (Jon Nunnally) and the last batter of the day (Jeff Kent) hit home runs. According to the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David Vincent, the last time that happened in a Giants game was April 11, 1973 (Jim Wynn with the leadoff homer for Houston, Willie McCovey with the walk-off homer for the Giants).
More from the Sultan: The Rockies and Expos had a 10-homer game Monday. That's three of those now at Coors Field since it opened in 1995, four for all the other parks combined.
The East Valley Tribune's Ed Price reports that ageless Diamondbacks reliever Mike Morgan has saved for the cycle this year -- a four-inning save, three-inning save, two-inning save and one-inning save.
Morgan also has become the fifth pitcher to save more games after turning 40 than before. The Elias Sports Bureau determined that the others, among pitchers who played the majority of their careers since the modern save rule took effect in 1969, are: Dave Stieb (two saves after, one before), Woodie Fryman (36 after, 20 before), Jim Kaat (12 after, one before) and Steve Carlton (one after, none before). Incidentally, Carlton earned one save, Fryman two and Kaat six under the pre-1969 save rule.
Tony Gwynn really did hit .186 (8 for 43) in a banged-up April. It was Gwynn's first month below the Mendoza Line since Sept. 1991 (when he hit .174 in only 23 at-bats). In between, he had 37 months in which he hit over .300, and had five straight years ('93-97) without a month under .280.
Should we just give Randy Johnson the Cy Young right now? He's outhitting the batters who face him, .273 to .156. He has a higher batting average than Junior Griffey, Gwynn or Sean Casey. He's allowed six earned runs in seven starts -- but he's driven in four. "If he keeps doing this," says pitching coach Mark Connor, "we'll be looking for the cape in his locker."
Last year, Livan Hernandez went 0-6 against the Mets and Yankees, making him the first pitcher since Early Wynn (1958) to lose six games against teams from New York in the same season. This year, naturally, he finally got his first win (after an 0-4 start) against the Mets.
Over the last two seasons, the Phillies are 29 games under .500 in games started by any pitcher other than Curt Schilling. And since Schilling's last win, last Sept. 3, the Phillies were 18-38 heading into Schilling's start Saturday in Atlanta.
Mike Hampton already has walked 36 hitters this year. He issued his 36th walk last year in his 15th start.
Darin Erstad got 48 hits in April. Last season, he got 55 hits after the All-Star break (in 235 at-bats).
Jaime Navarro didn't last long in Milwaukee, but he left an imprint. He went 0-5, 12.54. That's the highest single-season ERA in history by a pitcher who lost five games or more.
It's safe to say April wasn't quite what Juan Gonzalez or the Tigers had in mind when they traded six players for him last winter. He drove in six runs in the month -- his fewest in any healthy month since September, 1991. He'd been second in the major leagues over the previous nine years -- but was tied for 226th in April. Until Friday, when he got three hits, he had one hit all season with a man in scoring position (1 for 19).
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings will appear each Saturday. | |
ALSO SEE
Jayson Stark archive
Stark: Week in Review
Stark: The mighty Braves
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