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Monday, October 28
 
NL East: Time to break 'em up in Atlanta?

By Phil Rogers
Special to ESPN.com

The Meryl Streep classic, "Sophie's Choice," featured an unfortunate woman under tragic circumstances forced to make a decision that would haunt her for the rest of her life.

Greg Maddux
Starting Pitcher
Atlanta Braves
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L Sv K ERA
34 16 6 0 118 2.62

Were his dilemma not about which millionaire to give additional millions to and which to force to relocate elsewhere for millions, we'd say John Schuerholz finds himself cast into the Streep role. But, nah, it's not quite the same, is it?

This is merely a classic win-and-win situation for two athletes with high-powered agents. If it goes badly for anyone, that would be the Atlanta Braves, who have reached an intriguing crossroad with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

Tom Glavine
Starting Pitcher
Atlanta Braves
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L Sv K ERA
36 18 11 0 127 2.96

Who stays and who goes?

Given the combined 515 wins of Glavine and Maddux, including 34 this year, their situation qualifies as the biggest offseason question in the majors. Here's a look at that and other business that is faced by teams in the National League East:

Atlanta Braves
1. Will Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine be back for an 11th season together?
The Braves, always a team that keeps their options open, did not move to extend the contracts of either of their aces last season, allowing them to reach free agency at the same time. The odds are against signing both.

"We are prepared to have one or have both or have neither," said Braves president Stan Kasten.

Unless Maddux and Glavine offer AOL Time Warner a bargain, there's probably only room in the budget to keep one. That would figure to be Glavine, who was the better of the two in 2002. But the truth is that nobody really knows which way these winds are going to blow.

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves opening offer to Glavine was for only one year. That would seem to indicate a willingness to play hardball.

Scott Boras, who represents Maddux, is hopeful that the Arizona Diamondbacks will find a way to enter the picture with Maddux. The Chicago Cubs are among numerous teams watching to see what happens with Glavine. This is going to be very interesting before it's over.

2. If Maddux or Glavine leave, will John Smoltz move back into the rotation?
Despite Smoltz's NL-record 55 saves, that's a possibility. Smoltz would like to rejoin the rotation, and he's certainly earned a say in his role, but the argument for taking him out of the bullpen would have to be a strong one. Kevin Millwood established himself as a solid No. 2 starter and both Damian Moss and Jason Marquis showed their promise in 2002. The bullpen situation seems more precarious, especially with Mike Remlinger, Chris Hammond and Darren Holmes as free agents.

3. Is there an end in sight for Cox?
Not if he can help it. Cox's ability to rekindle his enthusiasm for the job on an annual basis has been one of the quiet keys to the Braves' success. Cox, the only National League manager to ever have five 100-win seasons, has found nowhere that he enjoys himself as much as in the dugout. They'll have to use a bulldozer to get him out of the clubhouse -- and John Schuerholz is too smart to try that in the immediate future.

4. Isn't there an abundance of run-producing first basemen in the majors?
You wouldn't know it by watching the Braves, who used a good burst by the platoon of Julio and Matt Franco to help compile the 60-20 midseason run that allowed them to coast to another division title. But the bet here is that Schuerholz will go outside the organization to import a first baseman.

The Braves face an interesting call on Fred McGriff. On the one hand, he's anxious to return to Atlanta and is coming off a 30-homer, 103-RBI season with the Cubs. On the other, he's Fred McGriff.

5. Was that a slow-motion replay or Vinny Castilla's swing in real time?
The Braves felt they were getting a dangerous hitter when they signed Castilla. Instead they wound up with a late-career version of Brooks Robinson. They'll hope that Castilla can hit better than he did in 2002 but if not would be more than happy to settle for the fielding they received from him and shortstop Rafael Furcal.

Montreal Expos
1. Why hasn't MLB announced the Expos are staying put, at least for the time being?
Club president Tony Tavares has been pushing for a resolution since mid-September but officials with Commissioner Bud Selig's office continue working out the details of the Expos' schedule, which is likely to have two homestands transferred from Olympic Stadium to Puerto Rico. Details are being worked out with the teams that would be impacted. But whether this taste of the Caribbean works out or not, the Expos are returning to Montreal for one more last season.

Frank Robinson
Frank Robinson could walk away if he's not happy with his salary or the Expos' budget.
2. Is Frank Robinson coming back?
For the moment, this is a good question. Robinson, who originally said he wanted the job for only one season, seems interested in coming back in 2003 but hasn't committed. He could walk away if he's not happy with either his salary or the team's budget, which hasn't been set. General Manager Omar Minaya probably wouldn't talk Robinson into staying. He's been thrilled with the job Robinson has done but knows the organization has a long-term future with contraction off the table. It would be helpful to have a manager in it for the long haul.

3. Will Minaya have to slash salaries?
Slash might be a little strong but it is hard to see the other 29 teams ponying up what it would take to keep this team together. They spent a little over $1 million per team on the Expos last year but would see that grow to about $2 million per if Minaya does not trade some veterans. It is likely that GMs with other clubs will try to raid the Expos' starting rotation, which features Bartolo Colon, Javier Vazquez, Tony Armas Jr. and Tomo Ohka.

4. How can an orphaned team like the Expos be one of the few with pitching to deal?
Minaya inherited a deep staff and somehow improved the depth as the season went on. He made a terrific trade with Boston for Cliff Floyd, landing a potential front-line starter in Sun-Woo Kim. The righthander was 1-0 with an 0.98 ERA in three late-September starts. He showed enough to be written into the 2003 rotation, which could allow Minaya to move Vazquez or Armas.

5. Where will they play after 2003?
This, of course, is the Billion Dollar Question. While there is talk of such locales as San Juan, Portland and Newark, the signs still point to Washington, D.C. Peter Angelos is the main reason this hasn't already happened, and there are rumblings that Angelos might be ready to sell the Orioles if a viable buyer comes forward. You can bet that Selig would try to make that happen.

Philadelphia Phillies
1. Does Ed Wade have what it takes?
There's been no more critical season for Wade and third-year manager Larry Bowa than the one upcoming. After 14 losing years in the last 16, they must establish some momentum as they turn out the lights at Veterans Stadium. It's essential to do well in 2003, when salesmen are working the community to try to get the biggest bounce from the pending move into Liberty Field. If the Phillies take a step backward, it could cost Wade his job.

2. Can they sign Jim Thome, and if not who does Wade get as his big bat?
Jim Thome
First Base
Cleveland Indians
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM HR RBI R SB AVG
147 52 118 101 1 .304
The Phillies have targeted the Cleveland first baseman as their top off-season priority. Signing him would allow them to replace the woefully underproducing Travis Lee. If Thome stays with the Indians, they'll have to consider other first base options.

3. Who will be the long-term replacement for Scott Rolen?
It's not that the Phillies are disappointed in Placido Polanco. But they'd rather move him to second base, which would allow them to tell Marlon Anderson to take a hike. Polanco's versatility gives them the freedom to import either a third baseman or a second baseman.

4. Can they add some age to the starting rotation?
In Randy Wolf, Brandon Duckworth, Vicente Padilla and Brett Myers, the Phillies believe they have the starting pitching to compete. But Wade wants to add a productive veteran who can be counted on for 220 innings.

5. Can Bowa turn the corner in the clubhouse or will more players turn on him?
Bowa's form of tough love was an issue throughout the 80-81 season in 2002, largely because of his non-relationship with Rolen. But with Rolen gone, Bowa gets something of a fresh start in proving himself as a leader, not just a bully. His support with ownership remained strong at the end of '02 but could vanish if more players turn him into a lightning rod for their gripes.

Florida Marlins
1. Has Jeffrey Loria already killed the franchise?
This may seem strong but it's hard to overestimate the damage that was done to an already fragile franchise by the ownership transfer from John Henry to Loria and his son-in-law, David Samson. They ran out of hot dogs on Opening Night at that monstrosity, Pro Player Stadium, and the season pretty much went downhill from there.

But there's good news for Marlin fans. Everyone who attends the 2003 opener will get a coupon redeemable for a free hot dog. Loria is also instituting several ticket specials in an effort to lure fans back to one of baseball's worst ballparks.

The best marketing hook would be to spend some money on the club. Loria says he is increasing the payroll but most will believe it when they see it.

2. Who isn't eligible for arbitration?
Even after a season of wheeling and dealing by rookie GM Larry Beinfest, there are 12 arbitration-eligible players on the Florida roster. The list includes pitchers A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny and Vlad Nunez, along with the double-play combo of Luis Castillo and Alex Gonzalez and outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Kevin Millar.

Luis Castillo
Second Base
Florida Marlins
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM HR RBI R SB AVG
146 2 39 86 48 .305

Trade rumors center on Castillo and first baseman Derrek Lee, but teams are even asking about Penny and Burnett. There don't seem to be any untouchables.

3. How's Alex Gonzalez doing?
Good question. Gonzalez, who appeared to have his game back on track, didn't return after surgery on his left shoulder in late May. If they're going to get over .500 in 2003, they need him to bounce back.

4. What was Jeff Torborg thinking in his handling of Burnett?
All we can figure is he thought either he or Burnett wouldn't be back in 2003. Apparently confusing Burnett with Iron Man McGinnity, Torborg allowed Burnett to throw 120-plus pitches 10 times. There were only four teams that had that many 120-pitch starts. The wear took a toll on Burnett, who was disabled in August with a bone bruise in his elbow but came back to start twice in the final days of the season.

5. What's the worst trade rumor floating?
We heard that the Marlins might be so flush with young pitching that they would deal even Josh Beckett if teams would take center fielder Preston Wilson. If this is true, teams ought to line up for Wilson like he was Andruw Jones.

New York Mets
1. What impact will Art Howe have?
He'll lower the level of tension, both in the clubhouse and in dealings with the front office. Howe is going to miss the starting rotation he left behind in Oakland but not the limited resources he has worked under as a manager, first in Houston and then with the A's. But he's walking into a seriously flawed situation, with no guarantees that he'll be able to generate an immediate rebound by the team that went belly up under Bobby Valentine.

2. What's the off-season priority?
This is tough. There are almost too many items of concern to boil it down to one. But we'll stick to pitching. When the Mets were good in 1999 and 2000, their key was a solid starting rotation and a deep, talented bullpen. Those days are long gone. Even Al Leiter, who is signed for two more years, is starting to fray. They made a good move by adding Scott Strickland but could use another bullpen workhorse or two to get the ball to Armando Benitez. The starting rotation also needs retooling. Jeff D'Amico and Steve Trachsel are free agents. Aaron Heilman better be good.

3. Wasn't this supposed to be one of the best fielding infields ever?
Uh, not with Maurice "Refrigerator'' Vaughn playing first base. But the Mets' appalling fielding, especially early in the season, was stunning. Shortstop Rey Ordonez had an awful season (he's got one year left and the club would love to move him elsewhere) and Edgardo Alfonzo did not make the smooth transition to third base that was forecast. Alfonzo is a free agent and GM Steve Phillips did nothing to keep him off the market.

Mike Piazza
Catcher
New York Mets
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM HR RBI R SB AVG
135 33 98 69 0 .280
4. Why not just tear up the blueprint and start over?
Phillips would probably like to do just that, and some think that he might even be bold enough to consider trading Mike Piazza, whose offensive production has slipped two years in a row. With Vaughn at first base, there's no place to move Piazza and now might be the time to deal him before he loses value. Besides, a Piazza trade might be a way to get rid of a bad contract or two. Phillips has painted himself into a corner by trading for Vaughn and giving Jeromy Burnitz and Roger Cedeno major contracts. Phillips definitely wants to add at least one more outfielder but will have to take another bad contract back to move Burnitz or Cedeno. Vaughn is an immovable object, literally and figuratively.

5. Was Valentine the problem?
No, he wasn't. But the manager's relationship with Phillips had deteriorated to a point where owner Fred Wilpon decided one had to go. Phillips, quite the sweet talker, did a better job of positioning himself than Valentine. It was as simple as that. Wilpon made a bad choice, as Howe will ultimately find out.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.






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