Friday, April 20 Bonds simply the best player of his generation By Joe Morgan Special to ESPN.com |
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So far the three-week sampling of games has demonstrated how the higher strike zone has benefited the pitchers. Runs are down to around one run per game; walks have dropped; and the number of strikeouts have increased. As the season progresses, I expect the good hitters to adjust and handle the high pitch while the average hitters will remain the same. Most hitters are taking the high pitch, but they will become more aggressive and begin swinging at the first-pitch high fastball more often. The count has favored the pitchers when the hitters have taken the first pitch for strike one.
In many cases, the most crucial count is now one ball and one strike. How the 1-1 pitch is called sways the advantage one way or the other. Instead of the count being 2-1 and the hitter having the advantage, the higher strike has led to more 1-2 counts, giving the pitcher a big edge. I see that changing with the hitters attacking the 1-1 pitch as the season goes along. Even though the offensive numbers are down, remember that several quality players, namely Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey Jr. and Bernie Williams, have seen little playing time. Here are my thoughts on a few more topics around the league:
1. Now that Barry Bonds has reached the 500-homer milestone, what is his place in baseball history? There is no doubt Bonds will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Although many players have had great seasons and have been special players, Bonds has been the best player of his generation and was the Player of the '90s. Comparing today's players with past players is a difficult task. For instance, it's hard to compare Bonds' numbers to Willie Mays' numbers because the game has changed so much since Mays played. The game is what it is now, and it was what it was then. A player's numbers must be compared to his peers, not players from another era. Otherwise, the comparisons become too distorted. The perfect combination for a player is always power and speed. And Bonds, along with being an excellent left fielder, has shown both qualities. Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco and Bonds are the only 40-40 players in baseball history. Although that is a special feat, I remember Mays saying he would have had 40 homers and 40 stolen bases in a season too if he thought it were a big deal. He and Mickey Mantle were two players who could have had 40-40 seasons, but numbers meant less to players in Mays' era. More runs are scored and offensive numbers are greater now than they were 30 years ago. The pitching has proven to be worse than in the past, leading to some of the elevated numbers. But Bonds is just the best of his era; I'll leave it at that.
2. The Astros seem to have a surplus of quality outfielders -- Moises Alou, Richard Hidalgo, Daryle Ward and Lance Berkman. Should they try to trade one of them for more pitching, since Enron Field is such a bandbox? And can the Astros ever make a turnaround in that ballpark? Ward is probably the player the Astros would want to trade for pitching. However, he probably has the least value; although he has potential, Ward hasn't proven he can play on a full-time basis yet. Another team may want Ward, but it may not be able to give the Astros a solid pitcher in return. Few teams have good pitching anyway. Most teams have more hitters than pitchers. A team like Seattle could use another big bat in the lineup, but the Mariners for now are succeeding with their current roster. At the same time, I'm not sure which pitchers could thrive at Enron Field. It's much like Coors Field in Colorado. It is still unknown how Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle will perform, and they are two quality pitchers. The only pitcher who has ever pitched at Coors Field with any consistency has been Pedro Astacio. It will be difficult for a pitcher to have great numbers at Enron. Wade Miller has started the season on a strong note, but it's too early to rate young pitchers who haven't been seen by every team. The Astros are hopeful Jose Lima can pitch better this season. The Astros are in a similar position as the Texas Rangers in the American League. At times they can outscore normal teams. But the teams with good pitching will test them. They can contend in the NL Central with quality players like Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Hidalgo and Alou who can produce runs. The division appears open to Houston, St. Louis, Cincinnati and perhaps even the Chicago Cubs, who are off to a good start.
3. Even though only 10 percent of the season is over, how difficult will it be for the A's to recover from their slow start and win the AL West? The lack of a veteran presence other than Jason Giambi has already hurt the A's. In the offseason they lost Randy Velarde, Kevin Appier and Matt Stairs and replaced them with younger players. Appier may have won a few games and made a difference as a veteran pitcher. Velarde was more of a settling influence; that was a reason the A's got him in the first place. He did his job and helped them win. The new strike zone has had a negative impact on the A's offense as well. They were never a team that hit for a high batting average, except for Giambi. They walked a lot, worked the count in their favor and hit the ball out of the ballpark. This season the A's have fewer walks, fewer counts in their favor and fewer home runs. They need to adjust and maybe become more aggressive as hitters. Their offense needs less of a Big Bang theory. In recent games I've seen A's manager Art Howe try the hit-and-run a few times. He seems to understand the need to adjust. Whether or not he can convey that approach to his team will be the key.
4. It looks like the Blue Jays and the Red Sox have the pitching to challenge for the AL East title. How much of a threat are they to the Yankees? The Red Sox were a good team last year because they pitched well. Now they are pitching even better and have Manny Ramirez to replace Nomar Garciaparra's bat in the lineup. The Red Sox are the same team offensively, except with more power. Ramirez is as good as any RBI man in baseball. Their pitching staff may have a 1.79 ERA, but again, it's over a 16-game span. The numbers don't mean as much as the wins. Numbers can only be used as a reference point, not as a statement. They will change, but no one can take wins away. I'm more impressed with the Red Sox's ability to win close games against the Yankees. Performance in close games is a more important measure for a team. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, like new manager Buck Martinez, who will have a calming influence on the team. He was a longtime major-league player who has also been around the Blue Jays for many years as a broadcaster, so he knows the people well. The Jays had a good team last year and only won a few less games than the Yankees. Toronto seems to be more confident this year, but the teams' success will depend on how Chris Carpenter and the rest of the staff does. They lost David Wells to Chicago without getting a healthy Mike Sirotka, whom they thought would replace Wells in the rotation. The Jays should remain in the AL East race, barring a big injury. If something happens to Carlos Delgado, the Jays would be greatly affected. Look at the Yankees, who have been without Bernie Williams. The Yankees aren't the Yankees without Williams, who left the team to be with his ailing father. The Yankees are not at full strength, so it's hard to gauge things this early.
5. The controversial Kevin Malone era has ended in L.A. What must the Dodgers do to press on and become a proud franchise once again? Meanwhile, the Dodgers' defense needs tightening. Baseball in the American League is different than the game played in the National League. In the AL, teams can sometimes get away with poor defense. In the NL, teams run more, hit-and-run more, put more pressure on the defense and expose defenses more than they do in the AL. The AL teams basically sit around for the three-run homer. From the outside looking in, it's always difficult to judge someone's job performance. I don't know what kind of pressure Malone worked under and whether or not he had freedom to make trades or acquisitions. Someone could have been looking over his shoulder telling him what to do or not to do. It would be unfair for me to blame Malone. All I can see is what the Dodgers have on the field. Hall of Famer Joe Morgan works as an analyst for ESPN. |
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