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Updated: March 29, 10:28 AM ET Pitchers have chance to strike back By Joe Morgan Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||
| Here are my thoughts on five key questions going into the 2001 baseball season:
1. What kind of effect will the higher strike zone have and which hitters and pitchers will benefit the most and the least? Any time a change affects the pitcher-hitter matchup, it will have a big bearing on the season. When the league lowered the mound in 1969 to help the hitters, offensive production picked up. When the strike zone dropped, the hitting numbers continued to improve. We won't know for a couple of weeks how consistent the umpires will be at calling the high strike. It's easy to call the high strike in spring training because the players are less likely to get upset. And the umpires probably go to the extreme to call the high strike to get the players accustomed to it. But once the season starts, we will see how the hitters respond when they are getting called out on high strikes and their numbers are affected. If the hitters get upset, how will the umpires react? And will baseball back the umpires?
The Red Sox will be basically the same team they were last year because they have Manny Ramirez to replace Garciaparra. Last season the Red Sox had Garciaparra, but no Ramirez. They weren't good enough to beat the Yankees last year and shouldn't be again this year without Garciaparra. Ramirez will be as good a run producer as Garciaparra was. No one knows how good Garciaparra will be when he comes back from the injury after missing all of spring training and trying to get back into playing shape. More than likely, the Red Sox won't immediately get the same Garciaparra who has won two straight batting titles. It will take awhile, especially since he has something wrong with his hand. It's not a good scenario for the Red Sox. 3. What are the keys to this year's Yankees getting the second four-peat in MLB history? The Yankees' chances will always depend on their bullpen. They have added a great pitcher in Mike Mussina to the rotation. But he is not going to pitch nine innings, and neither will their other starters, who are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. The Yankee bullpen, working backwards with Mariano Rivera, is the best. But how do you get to Rivera from the seventh inning on? That will be the key. If Ramiro Mendoza is healthy, the Yankees will be fine. But they will miss Jeff Nelson if Mendoza can't do the job. Their strength had been using Nelson and Jeff Stanton to get to Rivera. Even though the Yankees' bullpen is the key, they will still be better than everyone else because they know how to play. They weren't the best team last year, but they played the best in the playoffs. In the first half of the season, people were writing off the Yankees, but that wasn't the case. They have veteran players who know how to win. And they have the same group of players. The A's and the Mariners had a great chance to beat the Yankees in the playoffs, but the Yankees are just smarter. Again, I won't say the Yankees are the best team, but they are the team to beat. 4. Of the non-playoff teams last year, which team in each league is most likely to make the playoffs this season and why? I expect the Cincinnati Reds, who were not a good team last year, to make a run in the National League and have a solid season. The key will be Griffey, who pulled up lame with a hamstring injury Monday. If he's hurting, it will affect the whole team. Griffey had a bad season last year, but he hit 40 home runs. The rest of the Reds are used to him now. If they can stay healthy, I like their chances, with Griffey, Barry Larkin, Dmitri Young and Sean Casey. The Reds have enough to be a real challenger in the NL. In the AL, the Rangers can make a run at the playoffs. With as many good players as they have -- such as Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro -- they will always have a chance. Even with poor pitching, the way the game is played now, a team can outscore the opposition and win games. That approach won't win a championship because in the playoffs the Rangers would face great pitching. But during the season against average teams, they can outscore teams and win enough games to make the playoffs. 5. Is this the year Andruw Jones asserts himself as one of the best all-around players in the game? We've expected too much from Jones in the past. As a teenager, he was hitting home runs in his first two World Series at-bats. So everyone thought by the age of 20, he would be Griffey. That didn't happen, and it has taken Jones awhile. I always remember something Tony Oliva said. He won batting championships his first two years. The third year, he didn't win, and people wondered what happened. Oliva said, "Once you're on top, there's only one way to go." People expect a batting title every year, but it's not that easy. He was still a great player. Jones has had to learn the strike zone and to be more patient. He had to learn more about hitting, and I think he has done that. Jones had an awesome 2000 season. His numbers were great for a young player, and Jones continues to get better as a hitter each year. That's the key to being a great player -- learning more about yourself and how to deal with pitching, and knowing your strengths and weaknesses. |
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