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| Tuesday, October 3 | |||||
| Are White Sox building a dynasty? Special to ESPN.com | |||||
Editor's note: The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com.
This is not your older brother's American League Central.
After five years of toppling the rest of the division like the Olympic vault toppled female gymnasts, the Cleveland Indians are fighting for their playoff lives. Between 1995 and 1999, the other four teams in the division finished below .500 in 19 of 20 possible seasons; the only exception being the 1996 White Sox, who went 85-77. But this year, the White Sox have already won 93 games, and have become the first Chicago team to lead its league in wins since the Cubs in 1989.
Average Age (Pitchers): 26.96 For all the talk about the great young hitters on the South Side of Chicago, it's the great old hitter, Frank Thomas (32), that opposing pitchers still fear most. Ray Durham is a young veteran at 28 and Brewers refugee Jose Valentin has almost as many years on him (30) as errors. And for some players, what is perceived as youth is merely inexperience. Chris Singleton is in only his sophomore season, but he turned 28 last month. Herb Perry has been a revelation in his first year as a major-league starter, which obscures the fact that he just turned 31. (Perry was actually a rookie on the 1995 Indians.) The pitching staff is more than a year younger than the offense; aside from Ken Hill's comically bad appearance in his one start, the only pitcher over 30 to throw for the Pale Hose this year was Cal Eldred (32). Compared to other great teams throughout history, both the White Sox hitters and pitchers fare quite well, but neither place among the youngest on record. Since the live-ball era began in 1920, 161 teams have led their league in wins. (It would be 160, but the A's and Blue Jays tied for the best record in 1992.) Of those 161 teams, Chicago's offense ranks as the 33rd-youngest overall. Their pitching staff ranks 14th-youngest among those same 161 teams. Which teams had the youngest offenses overall? 1967 Red Sox (25.54 years average age) key hitters: Carl Yastrzemski (27), Rico Petrocelli (24), Tony Conigliaro (22) 1935 Cubs (26.32) key hitters: Gabby Hartnett (34), Chuck Klein (30), Billy Herman (25) 1970 Reds (26.36) key hitters: Johnny Bench (22), Pete Rose (29), Tony Perez (28), Bernie Carbo (22) 1969 Mets (26.40) key hitters: Cleon Jones (26), Tommie Agee (26) 1994 Expos (26.50) key hitters: Larry Walker (27), Moises Alou (27), Wil Cordero (22) 1950 Phillies (26.51) key hitters: Andy Seminick (29), Del Ennis (25), Richie Ashburn (23) "Miracle" teams dominate this list. The Impossible Dream was made possible by a lineup that was almost impossibly young: the 1967 Red Sox were nearly a full year younger than any other team on this list. Carl Yastrzemski, in his Triple Crown season, was actually the oldest regular in the lineup. It seems almost inconceivable that they would not make the playoffs for another eight years, but Tony Conigliaro, the team's most promising hitter, was never the same after his infamous beaning that season. While Rico Petrocelli and Reggie Smith developed into outstanding players, George Scott had his best years with the Brewers; Joe Foy would become best-known for being traded for Amos Otis; and Mike Andrews' moment of fame came when Charlie Finley tried to force him to fake an injury to remove himself from the 1973 A's postseason roster. If you're wondering how the 1935 Cubs are the second-youngest team on this list with a pair of thirty-something sluggers in their lineup, consider that first baseman Phil Cavaretta was 18 years old. Cavaretta went 3-for-24 in the World Series as the Cubs lost in six games. He's now 84 and still awaiting absolution. And for those lonely Expos fans who continue to ponder "what might have been" about 1994, I'm afraid I can offer no consolation. In a different economic era, the Expos might still be winning today. The youngest pitching staffs among our first-place teams: 1970 Reds (25.46 years average age) key pitchers: Gary Nolan (22), Jim Merritt (26), Jim McGlothlin (26) 1986 Mets (25.76) key pitchers: Dwight Gooden (21), Ron Darling (25), Sid Fernandez (23), Bobby Ojeda (28) 1947 Dodgers (25.92) key pitchers: Ralph Branca (21), Joe Hatten (30), Vic Lombardi (24) 1966 Orioles (25.98) key pitchers: Dave McNally (23), Jim Palmer (20), Wally Bunker (21), Steve Barber (27) 1969 Mets (26.19) key pitchers: Tom Seaver (24), Gary Gentry (22), Jerry Koosman (26), Tug McGraw (24) The 1970 Reds and 1969 Mets also appeared on the first list, so it's not a stretch to say they might be the two youngest great teams (or greatest young teams) ever. What is strange is how dramatically these two teams' fortunes diverged after their great years. The Reds had an off year in 1971, but after trading for 28-year-old Joe Morgan won division titles in 1972 and 1973, and blew the major leagues apart as the Big Red Machine in 1975 and 1976. The Mets, on the other hand, faded away after their Amazin' season. Though they beat the Reds to advance to the World Series in 1973, they went just 82-79 that season, the worst record by a first-place team in history. After winning 100 games in 1969, the Mets would not win more than 86 games in a season until 1984. Why the disparity between the two teams? It may be that whereas the Reds' best young players were all hitters, the Mets' strength lay in their young arms. Hitters are less likely to suffer career-threatening injuries than pitchers, and while guys like Bench and Perez and 22-year-old Davey Concepcion would be key parts of the Reds' offense for many years to come, none of the Mets' young hitters developed into stars after 1969. And while Tom Seaver is in the Hall of Fame, Gary Gentry was washed up at 25 and Jerry Koosman never again had a year quite as good as he did in 1969. (The pitcher who would prove to be the most durable on that staff -- or any staff -- was Nolan Ryan, who was traded to the Angels before he became a polished product. But hey, the Mets got Jim Fregosi.) What does all this have to do with the White Sox? It just goes to show that a dynasty can't be built on youth alone. Young players get injured. They develop slower than expected. They file for free agency. No team has so much promise that it can get away with not planning for the future. The team that is built for the long haul goes out and gets a future Hall of Famer, like the Reds did, instead of trading one away, like the Mets did. The team that wins year after year isn't afraid to retool with youth even while on top. At the beginning of their dynasty, the 1991 Braves actually had an older pitching staff than this year's White Sox, 27.34 to 26.95. But incredibly, the Braves' pitchers actually got younger each of the next two years as they continued to win pennants. When the Indians won the first of five division titles in 1995, their hitters were 29.44 years old and their pitchers were 30.95 years old, making them nearly four years older than the White Sox are this year. What kept them on top for so long was their ability to develop new talent to replace guys like Eddie Murray and Dennis Martinez with the likes of Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright and Richie Sexson and Brian Giles. In fact, their fall from grace this year can be traced to an increased commitment to veterans, which meant that players like Giles and Jeromy Burnitz and Sean Casey blossomed into stars elsewhere. Do the White Sox have what it takes to build such a dynasty? They might. As impressive as their major-league talent is, their minor-league depth -- particularly in pitchers -- is the envy of baseball. Along with rookies like Garland, Kip Wells and Mark Buerhle, all 22 or younger, they have Minor League Player of the Year and Olympic gold medalist Jon Rauch to head an impressive list of potential future aces. Depending on how seamlessly the White Sox are able to ease their pitchers into the major leagues -- and keep them healthy -- they may remain the class of the American League for years to come. So if you're a fan of one of the AL Central's Third World teams, don't give up hope that your team might yet win a division title some year soon. But don't be embarrassed about aiming for the wild card, either. Rany Jazayerli may be reached at ranyj@baseballprospectus.com. | ALSO SEE Baseball Prospectus archive | ||||
