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Belmont Stakes horse-by-horse analysis By Ed McNamara Special to ESPN.com I wish I had a dollar for every time I correctly predicted that an odds-on favorite in a major stakes would lose. Unfortunately, you can't cash in on such visions unless you land on the overlay that won. Most of the time, I didn't. Most handicappers agree that Saturday's Belmont Stakes is Smarty Jones' race to lose, and that only illness, injury, traffic trouble or rankness can stop his Triple Crown bid. That doesn't mean lots of wise guys won't be trying to beat him with Rock Hard Ten or Purge or Eddington. Here's the problem: Even if you're right that Smarty will be knocked off, and you narrow the likely upset candidates down to those three, you have only a 1-in-3 chance to be right. That's a foolish gamble, in my opinion, so I'm willing to concede the race to Smarty and play him on top in a $20 exacta with Eddington and in a $10 exacta with Master David, a plodder who may pass tiring horses late. Just in case, I'll put those two on top of Smarty in $4 exactas as potential savers. You never can tell. So that's my Belmont prediction. Smarty Jones wins, with Eddington second and Master David third. I'll play a $5 straight trifecta that way, too, and another $5 tri with Smarty first, Master David second and Eddington third. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis:
MASTER DAVID
He's a plodder with virtually no chance to win, but he could slip into the trifecta late by running on after the race has been decided. He won't be trying to put heat up front early on Smarty Jones and Purge, so he'll have energy left when the early chasers have packed it in. Definitely fits underneath in all the exotics.
PURGE
Performed brilliantly and ran a career pace top and best final fig while taking the Peter Pan by almost 7 lengths, and Peter Pan winners often do well in the Belmont. He has the distinction of being the only horse ever to be favored over Smarty Jones, at 2-1 when Smarty was 7-2 March 20 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Purge led before backing up to second, and he was off the board against Smarty in the muddy Arkansas Derby. Likely to be on or near the lead, and might not have enough left entering the stretch unless he really slows the pace. Velazquez is a brilliant front-end rider, and "waiting in front" is a traditionally strong tactic in the Belmont. Still, I don't like the 5-1 odds and Purge will be an underlay, a bad play even if he runs big.
CAIMAN
It's too bad that horses like this joke aren't barred from running when a Triple Crown is on the line. He was blown away in his two stakes tries, and he'd better just stay out of the way of the real horses since his connections won't let him stay in the barn. At 50-1, he'd be the underlay of the millennium. Even at 200-1, he'd be worthless.
BIRDSTONE
Other than winning the Champagne Stakes last fall, he's done nothing. He's been up the track in the Lane's End and the Derby, and his alleged great potential has never been realized. There have been more excuses for him than teenagers produce for not doing homework. He may be the equine version of Brazil, "the country of the future, and it always will be." Forget him.
ROCK HARD TEN
Here's the wise-guy play I'll try to counter. He's a magnificent specimen who never has run a bad one in four career starts, yet his main achievement is running a close second (DQ'd to third) in the Santa Anita Derby to Castledale, who looks like a turf horse. The California "experts" love him, yet unless Smarty Jones regresses dramatically, Rock Hard Ten has no chance of making up the 11½-length margin from the Preakness. Nice horse who's likely to win some big ones down the road, but a play-against Saturday.
ROYAL ASSAULT
He's only 2-for-5 lifetime, with unimpressive figures, and was nowhere in the Wood Memorial. Won the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton on Preakness day, as Sarava did two years ago before winning the Belmont at 70-1. I like him more than Zito's other colt, Birdstone, but I don't like him much. Might be fourth or third only if five horses go off form.
TAP DANCER
Like Smarty Jones, he has four legs and is stabled at Philadelphia Park. That's where the similarities end. He's winless beyond a mile and has lost six in a row. Please scratch him.
EDDINGTON
Goofy colt with great looks and the best distance pedigree in the field still hasn't put it all together. Has been working impressively, and Hennig and Bailey think his erratic focus is improving. Unlike some of the others, he still has upside, and if he can overcome his mild case of ADD, he should hit the board.
SMARTY JONES
He's unbettable and looks unbeatable. Sooner or later, as Servis has said, America's Horse has to go backward a bit, but even if that happens Saturday, he should become the 12th Triple Crown winner. After 26 years, more than 120,000 at Belmont Park and millions around the country should have something big to celebrate.
Undercard picks
2nd race: Potomac Chase (win, place), key in exacta boxes with Halawellfin Hala, The State and Mogador
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