Invisible Ink
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
The son and grandson of Belmont Stakes winners (Thunder Gulch, Conquistador Cielo) is winless beyond 1 1/16 miles, and he may be overrated because he sneaked up to be a non-threatening second in the Kentucky Derby. The five-week layoff is a concern, and he's 0-for-3 in graded stakes. Make him beat you.

Balto Star
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Chris McCarron
He could be alone on the lead, always a good place to be. His problems are his distance-challenged pedigree and his company lines. He's never defeated a top-class field, and not running since the Derby is a negative. He's likely to lead to midway on the far turn before giving it up.

Dollar Bill
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Pat Day
The sucker horse of this 3-year-old generation is working well, as usual, and I expect Mr. Trouble will be overbet again. Has found traffic problems in his past four races for Day, and he's another one that's never won a race that mattered. Luckless plodder is overdue for a good trip, his backers say. Yeah, and the Red Sox are overdue to win the World Series. An overrated underlay.

Thunder Blitz
Trainer: Joe Orseno
Jockey: Jerry Bailey
Orseno proved last year that he could win a classic off a layoff when his Red Bullet took the Preakness after passing the Derby. This colt, unfortunately, isn't nearly as talented. His career moment was routing a lousy field in the Flamingo Stakes at Hialeah. Training well, and should handle 1 1/2 miles better than many of his rivals. First time with Bailey will hurt the price. May fit underneath in exotics if one or two of the favorites don't fire.

Monarchos
Trainer: John Ward
Jockey: Jorge Chavez
The Derby winner has won four races, all on hard surfaces (three at Gulfstream, one at Churchill Downs). Ward has admitted his colt likes firm going, and Belmont Park's deep, sandy loam should work against him. Deep closers often have trouble rallying strongly in the Belmont, and I'm not sure he wants to go beyond 1 1/4 miles. I had him in the Derby future book, so he's been a good friend to me. This time, I'm throwing him out.

Buckle Down Ben
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Yeah, I know, never ignore a Lukas horse in a big race, no matter what the odds, but I can't get enthused about this guy. Narrowly won a mile allowance at Churchill over a nondescript field on May 27, which didn't turn many heads. Showed speed that day, though, and could help the stalkers if he puts a little pressure on Balto Star early. Weak speed figures, and no shot.

Dr Greenfield
Trainer: Gerald Butler
Jockey: Edgar Prado
European shipper is the mystery beast for Team Valor, which imported My Memoirs to run second at big odds in the '92 Belmont in his North American debut. This colt's sire, Dr Devious, won the 1 1/2-mile Epsom Derby after flopping in the Kentucky Derby, so distance shouldn't be a problem, but can he handle Belmont's surface? Has run once on dirt, on an all-weather track in England, and beat nobodies by seven lengths last November. Worth a few stabs underneath in triples and superfectas, but no more.

A P Valentine
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Training brilliantly, 2-for-2 at Belmont and has the best 1 1/2-mile pedigree (A.P. Indy out of an Alydar mare) in the field. Shin problems delayed his 3-year-old debut, forcing Zito to play catch-up to make the Kentucky Derby. Made a breakthrough when he got up for second in the Preakness, and seems primed for another forward move. Unlike Point Given and Monarchos, hasn't delivered his "A" race yet, and Saturday could be his turn. Big chance.

Point Given
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Dominated the Preakness after running the only bad race of his life in the Derby. Here's his chance to prove he's clearly the best colt in his generation, and he may do it. Of course, he'll be less than 2-1, which is uninviting. If he runs to his potential again, no one will beat him, but there's no guarantee he'll take to 1 1/2 miles in a race that has eluded his trainer four times. Dangerous chalk.

McNamara's Belmont Stakes picks
1. A P Valentine
2. Point Given
3. Thunder Blitz
4. Dollar Bill