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My take on Triple Crown 2000


This Saturday's 132nd Belmont Stakes marks the end of this year's Triple Crown series. So let's take a look back at the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes before trying to figure out who has the best chance to capture the Crown's most demanding jewel.

Fusaichi Pegasus
Fusaichi Pegasus was the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby in 21 years.
The performance of Fusaichi Pegasus in this year's run for the roses was only sensational. His prep races were excellent and Neil Drysdale did a great job of bringing the Mr. Prospector colt up to the mile and a quarter classic. Prior to the Derby, only one horse had beaten him: David Copperfield. The Derby effort was one of the best performances by a 3-year-old that we have seen in years.

Chief's Crown in the Blue Grass, Althea in the Arkansas Derby, Skip Away in his Blue Grass and Talkin Man in the Wood Memorial are all examples of good horses peaking before the first Saturday in May. Three-year-olds are trained a lot differently now than they were in the days of the Jones boys. Back in the 1940's and 1950's, Derby starters had a lot more racing under their respective girths. There were also fewer roads to the Triple Crown. Don't you like the current lead-up better?

The fact that Fusaichi Pegasus had only five starts prior to this year's Kentucky Derby did play some role in his defeat as the favorite in the Preakness. There is always a benefit to seasoning, but the main reason Fusaichi Pegasus lost the Preakness was because of the three tough races he had in the space of five weeks. The Wood Memorial, the Derby and the Preakness all took their toll at the midway point of Pimlico's far turn. You could see jockey Kent Desormeaux was expecting another explosive stretch run from Fusaichi Pegasus, but it did not come.

I also discount the squeeze at the start and the track condition as reasons for his defeat.

But just because I was the only announcer on the ABC Sports broadcast that did not pick Fusaichi Pegasus to the win the Preakness does not diminish the respect I have for him. Just like any other racing fan, I would have loved to see he and Red Bullet square off again in the Belmont Stakes.

With the Derby and Preakness winners out of the Belmont, I'm leaning towards Wheelaway as my "final answer" as this son of Unbridled attempts to become a 3/4 millionaire. Whether or not I pick him to win, I guarantee he will be on my exacta ticket.

If you saw a videotape of the March 11 Tampa Bay Derby, you may have noticed a few clues to a very nice horse. Wheelaway had a bad beginning when he bobbled at the start in a 10-horse field, but he overcame the adversity and went on to win by 2 * lengths. But it wasn't the trouble or the margin of victory that impressed me. It was the ease at which Wheelaway won this race, something that actually turned out to be a negative factor later.

It was too easy!

Wheelaway needed a tough effort to prepare himself for the upcoming battles of the Blue Grass and the Triple Crown and he simply didn't get it!

But he did get a very tough effort in the Blue Grass, where he came from nine lengths back to finish third against a huge speed bias. Unfortunately, that set him up to be a classic "bounce" candidate when May 6 rolled around.

In the Kentucky Derby, Wheelaway did get to the front briefly, but veered to the left through the stretch drive and almost caused a pile up when he banged into Captain Steve. It could have been a really bad scene. This was one tired horse.

So all this leads back to Wheelaway and the Belmont. The colt starts off having the right bloodlines to win the grueling mile and a half test: He is by Unbridled out of a Damascus mare. Good news top and bottom.

And the timing of the "too easy" effort plus the "bounce" in the Kentucky Derby may in the long run end up helping Wheelaway win a Triple Crown event.

Another plus for this horse is Richard Migliore. He fits this animal. And the trainer? John Kimmel is ready to pop into the highest echelon of conditioners. The timing is perfect.

In the 1950's the Peter Pan Stakes was the prep for Belmont winners Counterpoint, High gun, Gallant man and Cavan. Then in 1961, its stakes status was taken away and was run as an allowance event two weeks before the Belmont for the next 15 years.  In 1968, Stage Door Johnny used "the Peter Pan Purse" on his way to Belmont history. After stakes status was reinstated in 1975, Coastal, Danzig Connection and A.P. Indy all used a victory at a mile and an eighth as a prelude to a mile and a half score in the Belmont.

The Belmont becomes more interesting with the victory of Postponed in this year's Peter Pan. The "go with what got you there" philosophy has worked for trainer Scotty Schulhofer before. He prepped Colonial Affair and Lemon Drop Kid in the Peter Pan prior to their Belmont triumphs.

Even without the Derby and Preakness winners, Belmont Stakes day will be a terrific afternoon at the races. The Belmont itself has more than enough good 3-year-olds and stories to go along with them. The supporting card is a daylong parade of Grade 1 horseflesh and competition at the grand dam of racetracks. Can't wait. See you in Elmont for the Belmont.



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