Teenage nervous breakdown
Most scouting directors feel that this year's draft, which will be held on June 5th, is "a high school pitching draft." The classic example is right-hander Colt Griffin from Marshall, Texas, who this spring has been clocked at 101 mph. Righty Gavin Floyd, who is from Severna Park, Maryland, could also be one of the first four selections.
But for those teams that get carried away with high school arms, history is against them. For instance, if the Minnesota Twins already had signed USC's Mark Prior and offered him to the Rays for Matt White ($11 million signing bonus), the D-Backs for John Patterson ($7M), the Indians for Jaret Wright(5.03 lifetime ERA) or St. Louis for Rick Ankiel -- all examples of what can happen to high school phenom pitchers, long after Todd Van Poppel's infamous struggles -- would all those teams not make the deals?
Here are two studies on the risk of paying big money to high school pitchers:
Productive pitchers
There were 77 pitchers who received first-, second- or third-place votes for the Cy Young Award from 1991-2000. Of those 77 pitchers, three -- Steve Avery, Bill Gullickson and Tommy Greene -- were drafted and signed as first-round high school pitchers (Alex Fernandez was drafted in the first round out of high school, but didn't sign and was signed two years later out of junior college). Tom Glavine, Kevin Tapani, Greg Maddux, Al Leiter and David Wells were second-round high school picks. John Smoltz and Andy Pettitte were signed out of high school as 22nd rounders.
First-round picks
From 1987, when baseball went to one draft, through 1997, there were 60 high school pitchers taken in the first round. Of those, 11 have at least .500 major-league records, 24 have never made the majors and only Avery has won more than 50 games.
In that time, the following were taken in the top eight picks of the first round: Willie Banks, Dan Opperman, Brien Taylor, Avery, Kurt Miller, Kirk (Hound Dog) Presley, Doug Million, Kenny Henderson, Kerry Wood, Patterson, White and Geoff Goetz.
And your kicks for free
With Tampa Bay conducting a fire sale to pare payroll and prepare for the 2003 season, a look back at previous fire sales:
1993 San Diego Padres
Fred McGriff to Atlanta for OF Melvin Nieves, OF Vince Moore and RHP Donnie Elliott.
Gary Sheffield and left-handed pitcher Rich Rodriguez to Florida for right-handers Trevor Hoffman, Andres Berumen and Jose Martinez.
RHP Greg Harris and LHP Bruce Hurst to Colorado for RHP Andy Ashby, C Brad Ausmus and RHP Doug Bochtler.
1995 Montreal Expos
John Wetteland to the Yankees for OF Fernando Seguignol.
Marquis Grissom to Atlanta for RHP Esteban Yan and outfielders Tony Tarasco and Roberto Kelly.
RHP Ken Hill to St. Louis for OF Darond Stovall, RHP Kirk Bullinger and LHP Brian Eversgaard.
1998 Florida Marlins
Kevin Brown to San Diego for 1B Derrek Lee and right-handers Rafael Medina and Steven Hoff.
Al Leiter and 2B Ralph Milliard to the Mets for RHP A.J. Burnett, LHP Jesus Sanchez and OF Robert Stratton.
Robb Nen to San Francisco for RHP Joe Fontenot, RHP Mike Villano and RHP Mick Pageler.
Moises Alou to Houston for RHP Oscar Henriquez, RHP Manny Barrios and RHP Mark Johnson.
Edgar Renteria to St. Louis for LHP Armando Almanza, RHP Braden Looper and INF Pablo Ozuna.
Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich and Manuel Barrios for OF Preston Wilson, LHP Geoff Goetz and LHP Eddie Yarnall.
The moral of the story is with rare exceptions, about all you get is a reduction in debt.
Walking the line
The Baseball Immortals web site points out that at their present rates Rick Reed (0.30 walks per 9 IP) and Brad Radke (0.64) would rank first and fourth all-time in fewest walk rates. Babe Adams (0.62, 1920), Christy Mathewson (0.62, 1913) and Bret Saberhagen (0.66, 1994) have the best single-season records.
Who's been foolin' you
When the Toronto Blue Jays optioned right-handed reliever John Frascatore to Triple-A Syracuse last week so he wouldn't reach incentives guaranteeing his 2002 contract, he had a 2.97 ERA since July 14, 2000. Incidentally, Toronto once went to a grievance on the same matter by sitting pitcher Dennis Lamp in 1986 so he wouldn't make his vesting option. The Blue Jays lost the case.
Howard Johnson's got his HoJo workin'
Marlins owner John Henry was on the trip to San Diego last weekend, but took his wife to dinner and missed A.J. Burnett's no-hitter. When Henry got into his car after the meal and turned on the game, he tried to get to the park, but couldn't get there in time because of traffic.
Searching for reasons
Last season, Buck Showalter was roundly criticized by the media for allowing Randy Johnson to throw too many pitches early in the season. Here are Johnson's first nine-game pitch totals for this season (not including Friday's game) and last year: 1,118 in 2001, 1,054 in 2000.
The space between
On May 5, the Cubs scored 20 runs against the Dodgers. In their next 12 games through Friday they scored 37.
It's a jungle out there
"If Desi didn't have such good stuff, it would have been a lot worse."
-- Mets manager Bobby Valentine, maintaining his sense of humor and sanity after a 15-3 blowout loss to the Padres, referring to the one-inning stint by infielder Desi Relaford in which he was clocked at 91 mph.
What you are
On the phenom watch: Double-A Midland (A's) LHP Mario Ramos, who was 14-5, 2.66 in his first pro season last year between Class A Modesto and Midland. He is 5-1, 2.29 with 34 hits allowed in 59 innings at Midland this year, one of the minors' most well-known hitting parks.
All that you dream
A letter from Dodger Stadium, May 11, 2000:
"In the third inning a foul ball hits in the loge section above us and bounces down into the row where we were sitting, and the ball lands soft as a feather in (three-year-old) Gillian's lap. The usual scramble occurs and a yuppie with his date reaches back and snatches the ball right from her lap; she starts to cry, not because she lost the ball, but because all the sudden movement scared her. And this yup-scum is so pleased with himself 'cause he finally got a ball at the game. During his reverie I casually say, "hey duffas, thanks for scaring my little girl", and he finally turns around and sees Gilli crying and says ... oh, uh, sorry, and goes back to whoopin' it up with his newfound baseball, and his date. Everyone around him starts a mild chant of give her the ball, but he just moves on. Around the seventh another ball heads our way and a 20-year-old out on the aisle gets it and walks it over and hands it to Gilli."
-- Paul Barrere
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