ESPN Classic - Can NASCAR flourish without No. 3?

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Wednesday, June 20, 2001
Can NASCAR flourish without No. 3?
By Darren Rovell
ESPN.com

1, 2, 4. That's how jarring NASCAR might be without the usual man sitting in the driver's seat of car No. 3.

Jeff "Earnhardt" Eberhardt, a longtime NASCAR fan, lost his No. 3 – and favorite driver – Sunday afternoon, Feb. 18. The 31-year-old man from Maple Lake, Minn., said he was like many NASCAR fans and purchased Earnhardt memorabilia after the driver's death in the Daytona 500.

Despite the loss of his hero, Eberhardt said he remains a NASCAR fan and probably will focus his favoritism on Earnhardt's son, Dale Jr.

NASCAR CEO Mike Helton might hope most fans remain as loyal to the sport as Eberhardt now that "The Intimidator" won't be in every driver's back mirror.

Earnhardt was NASCAR's equivalent to the NBA's Michael Jordan and golf's Tiger Woods. Last year, Earnhardt ranked 39th in the Forbes Power 100, which quantified celebrity popularity by factoring earnings, Web hits and press clippings.

According to a Harris Interactive Poll, 90 percent of the general population recognized Earnhardt's name in a January 2000 survey, just 9 percent less than recognized Jordan. Earnhardt's archrival, Jeff Gordon, was recognized by 72 percent of those polled. Further quantifying Earnhardt's importance to the sport was that 35 percent of people who attended a NASCAR event in the past twelve months cited Earnhardt as their favorite driver.

And when sports fans were asked by Harris Interactive who their favorite sports team or race driver was, Earnhardt placed third – just behind the New York Yankees and Dallas Cowboys.

Earnhardt, indeed, was NASCAR's biggest draw. And that's why his death calls off all projections – at least at this point – that seek to declare NASCAR as the fifth major sport in the near future.

"If Tiger Woods was hit by a lightning bolt, the PGA Tour wouldn't be anything like it is right now," said Max Muhleman, president of Muhleman Marketing, an IMG motorsports marketing firm. "It seems very unlikely that all the Dale Earnhardt (Sr.) fans will transfer to his son, and Jeff Gordon is his archrival so it won't necessary fall into his lap. So what we're dealing with right here is a big question mark."

One thing is for sure, those who weren't Earnhardt fans watched races to see how he'd prey on the competition. In short, he turned vanilla ice cream into a full-blown sundae. But whether those fans will continue to follow NASCAR in his absence is yet to be seen.

Some feel the void is too big to be filled.

"It's more far-reaching to fill the spot than what a lot of people understand," said Jack Flowers, editor of the "Winston Cup Beat" and a veteran auto racing reporter of 40 years. "It went from Fireball Roberts to Richard Petty to Dale Earnhardt. Tell me, where is that character now? Who is out there that fans absolutely have got to go see?"

While other sports leagues have struggled to replace their retired stars, NASCAR will turn to the likes of Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Bill Elliott and Mark Martin to fill Earnhardt's sizeable boots.

Formula One faced a similar dilemma when Ayrton Senna, the circuit's top driver, died in 1994. But Michael Schumacher stepped into the void and Formula One continued its meteoric rise internationally.

"NASCAR has positioned itself over the past 51 years to always roll forward with the punches," said Don Hawk, who was president of Dale Earnhardt Inc. from 1993 to May of 2000. "It's an impossible task and there will be a torch bearer. The torch might not be the same size and it might be a different hue of a flame, but someone will pick it up."

Hawk said he thinks most Earnhardt fans will become fans of Dale Earnhardt Jr. "They'll be adding a No. 8 underneath their No. 3 flag. Knowing Dale (Jr.), he can take the pressure. He saw his dad (Dale Sr.) follow his dad (Ralph), and now he's going to follow his dad."

Gordon's popularity was closing in on Earnhardt last year, according to an ESPN Sports Poll, a service of TNS Intersearch. The poll reflected that 39.2 percent of NASCAR fans, aged 12-17, said Gordon was their favorite driver, while 19 percent in that age group said they preferred Earnhardt. Earnhardt narrowly edged out Gordon in three older age groups: 18-24 (26.9 percent to 24.2 percent), 25-34 (25.4 percent-20.5 percent) and 35-plus (22.4 percent to 20.4 percent).

NASCAR's ratings are expected to rise, according to motorsports experts. Muhleman said he credits it to a sudden curiosity in the sport, but M. David Allen, president of Champions Sports Group, said he attributes the future rise to coverage of Earnhardt's death.

"Right this minute, we are front page news," said Allen, who worked with Earnhardt for 20 years and whose company was in charge of Earnhardt's appearances, sponsorship and media relations for Dale Earnhardt Inc.

"It's a sad and tough way to get it, and I'd far rather the second and third page and still have Dale here," Allen said. "But let's look at what's there. It's the cover of the New York Times, a People cover story on him, Connie Chung is interested, Larry King's people calling. Right now, we have a huge worldwide audience, and maybe in some ironic twist of fate, we could really grow from this."

Earnhardt memorabilia hot items
Dale Earnhardt memorabilia is flying off the shelves and creating a flurry of action on Internet auction sites. More than 60,000 Dale Earnhardt items were up for bid Tuesday, Feb. 20, on eBay, an online auction service. Eight-by-10 autographed pictures, previously valued between $50 and $100, are selling between $200 and $1,175.

Tim Vincent of Portland, Ore., who calls himself an Earnhardt fan, paid $2,550.08 for a bumper from Earnhardt's Chevrolet used in a 1997 Winston Cup race.

While demand for Earnhardt memorabilia is expected to cool off in the next 4-6 months, prices will remain high over the the long-term, according to Denny Parsons, price guide editor for Beckett Racing and Motorsports Marketplace. Parsons said NASCAR driver Adam Petty's autograph once sold for $20 to $40. Prices rose to $125 after his death, and have not gone down in the nine months since.

Parsons estimated that "just under a million" Earnhardt autographs are out in circulation, and his autograph probably will stabilize in the $150 to $200 range. He said there are more Jeff Gordon signatures than Earnhardt signatures, because Earnhardt signed fewer autographs over the past couple years as a result of his business obligations.

Fred Wagenhals, CEO of Action Performance Companies Inc., which controls the licensing for Dale Earnhardt Inc., said Earnhardt makes up 22 to 25 percent of the company's $300 million business. Earnhardt makes up 30 to 40 percent of the $500 million NASCAR collectibles market, Wagenhals said. Shares of Action Performance (ACTN) dropped 4.5 percent to $6.31 on Tuesday -- the first day of Wall Street trading after Earnhardt's death.

"I think that demand will go on," he said. "We've outlined a whole program to bring back Dale's nostalgia cars in the next two to three years and we've only put a few of them out thus far."

Prices of Earnhardt cards (Before Feb. 18):

1998 Press Pass (Triple Gear - 3 in 1) $800

1999 Press Pass (Triple Gear - 3 in 1) $800

1994 Max Medallion $500

1996 Zenith Seven Wonders $500

1994-95 Highland Mint/VIP $500

Source: Beckett Racing & Motorsports

Items sold on eBay since Earnhardt's death:

Autographed 8x10 photograph: $1,175

Dale Earnhardt Pit Crew Uniform: $610

Dale Earnhardt/Peter Max model car: $480.00

Dale Earnhardt Leather Cap: $400

5-foot-by-2-foot Inflatable No. 3 car: $355.51

Darren Rovell, who covers sports business for ESPN.com, can be reached at darren.rovell@espn.com.