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Thursday, July 25
Updated: August 3, 11:29 AM ET
 
Rookies helping run the show in WNBA

By Graham Hays
ESPN.com

No offense to Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes, but the WNBA's last two draft classes represent the next evolution of women's basketball. The existing stars have earned their place in history by getting the league off the ground, and many of them will be headlining all-star teams for seasons to come.

Tamika Catchings
Tamika Catchings is perhaps the league's most impressive rookie from the past two seasons.
But the rookies of 2001 and 2002 are the first generation born and bred on the WNBA. Mere days before Jackie Stiles arrived in Springfield, Mo., for her freshman year at Southwest Missouri State, Cynthia Cooper and the Houston Comets knocked off the New York Liberty to capture the WNBA's first title. Stiles, Tamika Catchings, Svetlana Abrosimova and the rest of that freshman class took the floor for their first collegiate practice knowing something that no previous freshman class had known: a pro career within the borders of the United States was within their grasp.

So it's not completely arbitrary to give that class and the subsequent class of 2002 a little extra attention. After all, these players are the future of the league. Cooper & Co. were gifts, and the ABL's demise provided another much-needed talent infusion, but these players are truly the WNBA's own generation.

Not surprisingly for a league as new as the WNBA, statistical analysis isn't always easy to find. Despite the best efforts of those who cover the game, women's college basketball often suffers from a lack of resources. Fans are lucky to get box scores with points, rebounds and assists, let alone more detailed stats. Some might think that the absence of "number crunchers" is part of the game's charm, like respectful players and reasonable salaries (far too reasonable by some accounts), but numbers aren't a bad thing to have on your side when arguing about which player or group of players is better than another.

Settling on a single comprehensive statistic is the easiest way to compare player value, regardless of position. Without an overall rating, comparing players from different positions becomes difficult at best, a muddle of meaningless numbers at worst. Are Natalie Williams' 7.4 rebounds per game worth more than Dawn Staley's 5.1 assists per game? It's hard to say. But a tool that measures each player's entire contribution, both strengths and weaknesses, is more useful.

Some inadequacies are immediately apparent. Defense is a tough thing to measure with statistics. Steals and blocks are defensive statistics, but they don't always represent great defense. A player who goes for steals on every pass is likely to come up with plenty of thefts, but she's also likely to cause innumerable defensive breakdowns when an unsuccessful attempt leaves her out of position. Similarly, plenty of events take place on the offensive end that aren't accurately tracked. How many picks does a player set, and are they quality picks? Did a player make the right cut against a zone defense, leaving a teammate open for a 3-point attempt on the skip pass? Other than through direct observation, those elements are tough to quanitfy.

And while no rating system is complex enough to factor in all of basketball's countless intangibles, elite players are rarely paid to take care of the intangibles. Sheryl Swoopes might be influenced by whether Kelley Gibson sets a solid screen, but the ultimate responsibility of hitting the shot lies with Swoopes. Teams can scrap and hustle all they want, but without rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and most importantly points, all they'll earn is a moral victory. Sure, statistics leave a lot of ground uncovered, but they also do a fair job of assessing a player's major contributions.

Here's a simple formula for measuring a player's complete statistical contribution, using per-game averages: (converted points + rebounds + (assists x 1.5) + three-pointers + steals + blocks) - turnovers.

Assists are given extra value because they lead directly to the ultimate positive result, a made basket. All of which might leave you asking, what are converted points?

Field Goals: This is the trickiest part of the equation. The only number that matters at the end of the game is the final score, and so it follows that the most important contribution a player can make is to put points on the board. But are all points equal? If Lisa Leslie and Lauren Jackson each score 20 points, but Leslie needs 15 shots while Jackson needs 20 shots, are their contributions really equal? Couldn't Leslie's teammates have scored on at least a couple of their five extra possessions? Multiply each player's field goals by their shooting percentage and the result is a better representation of the value of their shots. Leslie's 10 field goals on 67 percent shooting equal 6.7 converted field goals (10 x 0.67), while Jackson's 10 field goals on 50 percent shooting equal 5.0 converted field goals. In other words, Jackson gets credit for scoring the points, but she's penalized for poor shot selection.

Free Throws: The same holds true for free throws. Consider the NBA for a comparison. Shaquille O'Neal hit 5.9 free throws per game, and Paul Pierce hit 6.3 foul shots a night. That's pretty close to the same contribution on the scoreboard, but Pierce's free throws were more valuable than O'Neal's. The big guy wasted 4.8 charity attempts per game, while Pierce missed just 1.5 free throws per game. Any rating of their overall contribution must take into account that while O'Neal contributed more free throws per game, he cost his team an almost equal number of points.

Enough with the math, how about some rankings? First, a look at some of the WNBA's established elite, to use as a reference point. Ratings are for the 2002 season, based on statistics through the All-Star break (these are five randomly selected stars, not the season's five highest-rated players).

WNBA Ratings
Player Team Rating
Chamique Holdsclaw Washington 25.85
Lisa Leslie Los Angeles 24.12
Ticha Penicheiro Sacramento 23.81
Sheryl Swoopes Houston 20.05
Katie Smith Minnesota 16.14

With those ratings as benchmarks, how did the last two rookie classes fare in their debuts?

2001 Rookies
Player Team Drafted Rating
Lauren Jackson Seattle 1 18.97
Svetlana Abrosimova Minnesota 7 15.22
Jackie Stiles Portland 4 12.09
Marie Ferdinand Utah 8 11.92
Ruth Riley Miami 5 9.38
Penny Taylor Cleveland 11 9.45
Kristen Veal Phoenix 13 9.0
Katie Douglas Orlando 10 8.61
Semeka Randall Seattle 17 (2) 8.23
Amanda Lassiter Houston 15 7.31
Deanna Nolan Detroit 6 6.84
Kelly Schumacher Indiana 14 5.82
Kelly Miller Charlotte 2 2.9
Coco Miller Washington 9 1.44
Laquanda Barksdale Portland 12 Incomplete
Camille Cooper Los Angeles 16 Incomplete

  • Many observers felt Jackson did more to earn Rookie of the Year honors than Jackie Stiles, and these ratings support that line of thinking. Stiles scored slightly more points and shot better from the field, but Jackson's all-around numbers were head and shoulders above those of her rookie peers. Granted, Portland wasn't asking Stiles to rebound or block shots, but post players like Jackson aren't usually asked to hit 40 3-pointers. Stiles simply didn't score enough to earn recognition as a more valuable player than Jackson. For Stiles to have truly been the top rookie, she would have needed to outscore Jackson by a margin wide enough to offset Jackson's remaining statistical advantages.

  • Seattle's Semeka Randall might have offered the best return on investment given her second-round origins, but Minnesota and Cleveland lead the way when it comes to the most astute picks of the first round. By waiting an extra six games for Svetlana Abrosimova to return from the foot injury that ended her senior season at Connecticut, the Lynx got a potentially dominant inside-outside player. Four picks later, Cleveland nabbed Australian Penny Taylor. While Taylor didn't match Abrosimova's numbers, she rated better than four players (not counting Tamika Catchings) selected ahead of her. Only Kristen Veal and Amanda Lassiter did better, and neither matched Taylor's rating.

    2002 Rookies
    Player Team Drafted Rating
    Tamika Catchings Indiana 3 (2001) 26.85
    Sue Bird Seattle 1 16.46
    Tamika Williams Minnesota 6 16.41
    Swin Cash Detroit 2 16.19
    Stacey Dales-Schuman Washington 3 12.66
    Nikki Teasley Los Angeles 5 12.13
    Tamara Moore Minnesota 15 8.82
    Ashja Jones Washington 4 6.2
    Shaunzinski Gortman Minnesota 9 5.11
    Michelle Snow Houston 10 3.81
    Deanna Jackson Clevaland 8 3.41
    Hamchetou Maiga Sacramento 12 3.3
    Sheila Lambert Charlotte 7 Incomplete
    Danielle Crockrom Utah 11 Incomplete
    Tawana McDonald Indiana 13 Incomplete
    LaNeishea Caufield Utah 14 Incomplete
    Rosalind Ross Los Angeles 16 Incomplete

  • Sue Bird gets plenty of publicity for her rookie exploits, and rightfully so, but how about the job Tamika Williams is doing in Minnesota? The fourth of Connecticut's four first-rounders, Williams earns the second-best rating among this season's rookies. Used to playing as a slightly undersized (6-2) center from her college days, Williams is an active post presence on both ends of the floor. She's eighth in the league in overall rebounding and leads the league in offensive rebounding. Thanks in part to all those putback opportunities, she's shooting 55.5 percent from the field, one of only 10 players in the league shooting better than 50 percent from the floor.

  • Speaking of Minnesota, Betty Lennox is coming on strong in Miami, but acquiring Tamara Moore gives the Lynx the first round's two best value picks. The next-to-last pick of the first round, Moore's rating would be even higher if not for the three-week stretch in June where she slipped out of Miami's rotation and was then forced to learn Minnesota's system on the fly. Her rating over the last eight games, as a regular member of former coach Brian Agler's rotation, is up to 12.44. While it's still not clear that she's the distributor Heidi VanDerveer's team desperately needs to feed Williams, Katie Smith and Svetlana Abrosimova, Moore has terrific potential as a two-guard.

  • Turnovers are preventing Bird from matching Lauren Jackson's rookie rating. While Bird, as Seattle's primary playmaker, is bound to have more turnovers than a post player like Jackson, she needs to improve her ratio of assists to turnovers. While Bird is sixth in the league in assists per game, she has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio of any of the top 10. That's understandable for a rookie asked to lead a team (although Nikki Teasley is taking good care of the ball for Los Angeles), but it's holding back her overall value.

    Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
    Player Team Ratio
    Debbie Black Miami 4.5
    Ticha Penicheiro Sacramento 2.79
    Teresa Weatherspoon New York 2.51
    Dawn Staley Charlotte 2.11
    Nikki Teasley Los Angeles 2.09
    Jennifer Azzi Utah 1.98
    Gordana Grubin Phoenix 1.88
    Shannon Johnson Orlando 1.79
    Sue Bird Seattle 1.67

    So which class made the greater immediate impact? It's tough to argue against the depth of 2001. With the exception of Kelly Miller's poor play and Tamika Catchings' injury, the top picks performed up to expectations. But just as importantly for the group's overall rating, the rest of the draft produced immediate contributors. With 10 players earning ratings of at least 7.00, and just four first-rounders checking in with ratings beneath 5.00, only a handful of teams walked away from the draft without an improved playing rotation.

    Excluding Catchings, this year's draft class provided quality over quantity. While only three rookies emerged from the 2001 season with ratings of at least 12.00, five of this season's top six picks are on pace to better that mark. Depth is lacking after Tamara Moore, but producing five such accomplished starters is quite an achievement.

    It's fitting that any final determination rests with Tamika Catchings. Rank her with her original draft class and the combination of Catchings, Jackson and plenty of depth carries the day. Rank her as a rookie this season, and the overall brilliance of Catchings, Bird, Cash, Dales-Schuman and Williams takes the prize. The best player produced in either draft, and arguably the league's best player, Catchings simply transcends any label as constrictive as "rookie."

    And yet there's more to the story. No draft class can be judged on the basis of one season's statistics. Nothing makes that more clear than a look at how last season's rookies are faring this season. For while it's fun to debate which class did more their first season, it's important to remember that every one of these players has a long professional career in front of her. A career they've been preparing for longer than any other group of women's basketball players.

    Sophomore Ratings
    Player Team Rating Change
    Lauren Jackson Seattle 18.09 -0.88
    Penny Taylor Cleveland 17.12 +7.67
    Marie Ferdinand Utah 14.65 +2.73
    Svetlana Abrosimova Minnesota 13.45 -1.77
    Coco Miller Washington 13.22 +11.78
    Deanna Nolan Detroit 10.25 +3.41
    Katie Douglas Orlando 10.16 +1.55
    Kelly Miller Charlotte 9.23 +6.33
    Ruth Riley Miami 8.26 -1.12
    Semeka Randall Seattle 7.94 -0.29
    Amanda Lassiter Seattle 6.36 -0.95
    LaQuanda Barksdale Portland 5.97 NA
    Jackie Stiles Portland 4.96 -7.93
    Kelly Schumacher Indiana 4.49 -1.33
    Kristen Veal Phoenix 3.68 -5.32
    Camille Cooper New York Incomplete NA

  • Talent and work ethic are givens with most of these players, but there's no accounting for injuries. Abrosimova, Riley and Stiles are all in danger of finishing this season with lower ratings than last season, and in Stiles' case it's virtually guaranteed. All three have suffered through injury-plagued campaigns, and there's little time in a 32-game schedule to recover. As well as this season's top rookies are playing, will all of them remain immune to injuries?

  • Kelly and Coco Miller endured miserable rookie seasons, doubly so for Kelly given her draft position, but both are evidence that no player is a bust after one season. While Kelly quietly improves in Charlotte's deep rotation, Coco is enjoying the best turnaround of any player in the group. Given a chance to earn a starting job in Washington following Nikki McCray's departure, and after spending the offseason reunited with Kelly on the NWBL's Birmingham Power, Coco has responded. No single area of her game is most responsible for the dramatic improvement, but her shooting percentage (45 percent) and turnovers (1.5) are remarkable for a WNBA shooting guard with 3-point range.

    Graham Hays is a Fantasy Games editor at ESPN.com.





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