If Los Angeles is going to continue its quest for a threepeat, the Sparks are going to have to go through Sacramento.

LESLIE: CAMPBELL IS X-FACTOR

The Los Angeles Sparks were looking forward to renewing their rivalry with Houston -- the squad Lisa Leslie said is "the team that we love to hate'' -- but the four-time WNBA champions were eliminated in the first round for the third straight season. Instead, the Sparks will have to contend with the taller Monarchs, who feature the 6-foot-4 Yolanda Griffith and 6-4 Tangela Smith in the paint. The Sparks will counter with the All-Star combination of Lisa Leslie and DeLisha Milton. "(The Monarchs) pose a problem, but we match up well with them,'' Leslie said. "They can run. They have really good shooters outside. Ticha Penicheiro likes to get out and run and she's an excellent passer in the open floor.'' Leslie described Monarchs guard Edna Campbell as "the X-factor.'' "When she's hot, their team is very hard to beat,'' Leslie said. Sparks coach Michael Cooper said his team is quicker than the Monarchs. "We have to dig deep because now there's no easy road,'' he said. -- The Associated Press

Of course, this is really where it all started for the Sparks.

When L.A. won its first WNBA title two years ago, the Sparks defeated Sacramento 2-1 in the Western Conference finals. The Monarchs, in fact, are the only team Los Angeles didn't sweep in its back-to-back championship runs.

And it's no wonder. Both teams are incredibly athletic and experienced and match up very well, which explains their 2-2 record against each other in the regular season.

So which team will win its way into the WNBA finals? Here's how we see this series shaping up:

Season series
Tied 2-2. L.A. won the first two meetings -- 63-61 at home on June 5 and a 79-61 victory in Sacramento two days later. The Monarchs then beat the Sparks 69-60 in L.A. on June 28, and evened the regular-season series with an 83-75 victory at home on July 31 (L.A.'s Lisa Leslie did not play).

In 2001, the Sparks and Monarchs met in the Western Conference Finals. L.A. took a 1-0 lead after winning the series opener on the road, but Sacramento rebounded to win Game 2 on the Sparks homecourt. L.A. eventually won the series 2-1, then swept Charlotte for the 2001 WNBA title.

Sacramento's keys for success
The Monarchs' inside game must really play well together as a unit. Yolanda Griffith, Tangela Smith and DeMya Walker must score a lot of points in the paint and mix it up inside. They have played well so far -- though Smith's field-goal percentage was just 35.5 percent in the first round after she hit 44 percent of her attempts in the regular season -- and have combined to average 41.3 points and 22.7 rebounds in the first round.

This trio also needs to attack the basket, which would lead to points at the foul line and perhaps get the Sparks' inside players into some early foul trouble. L.A. is not a deep team, and forcing the Sparks to use their bench -- something they didn't have to do in either of their first-round victories -- would definitely favor Sacramento.

Griffith was fantastic against Houston, really taking her game to the next level -- which is what any great player does in the postseason. She averaged 21.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and shot 61.4 percent from the field in the first round, significantly raising her numbers in every key statistical category. In the regular season, Griffith averaged 13.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and shot 48.5 percent from the field.

In Game 3 of the Monarchs' series with Houston, nobody could guard Griffith. This four-time All-Star plays hard every night, but on Tuesday she played with such intensity that she simply refused to be denied. She wanted to shoot, she was attacking very aggressively, and overall Griffith really played like she did in 1999, her first season in the league when she won the MVP, defensive player of the year and newcomer of the year awards.

For as much as the Monarchs' inside game will be a key factor in this series, it's also important that Sacramento continue to hit shots in the halfcourt. As long as Edna Campbell (who shot 55.6 percent from the field in the first round) and Kara Lawson continue to hit shots from outside, the Sparks will be forced to defend the perimeter, which should free up things inside and make it easier for Griffith, Walker and Smith to get off some shots.

Sacramento loves to run and will play the fastbreak as often as it can. At times, Houston, the best defensive team in the league, took that away. When that happened, the Monarchs struggled -- see the 69-48 loss in Game 2 -- but they can't afford to do that against L.A., the second-highest scoring team in the league that usually makes you pay for long scoring droughts. The Monarchs need to rebound and run, have some success executing in the halfcourt and play with intensity for 40 minutes.

	Edna Campbell's outside shooting takes pressure off the Monarchs' inside game and compensates for Ticha Penicheiro's lack of scoring.

Los Angeles' keys for success
The Sparks have played very good, solid basketball so far in the playoffs. Even in their opening loss to Minnesota, the Sparks haven't made any real mistakes. Yes, they should have marked Katie Smith tighter at the end of Game 1 to prevent her from hitting that wide-open 3-pointer that tied the game, but L.A. is getting great productivity out of its posts and guards. The Sparks have been able to run, play the halfcourt and come up with a tough defense.

The biggest key for L.A. is to avoid foul trouble. The starting five is carrying this team right now, and with the Sparks' lack of depth, they need a lot of minutes from Lisa Leslie, Tamecka Dixon, DeLisha Milton, Nikki Teasley and Mwadi Mabika.

The Sparks' defensive adjustments are important. Minnesota didn't try to run and put the Sparks on their heels, but the Monarchs will run every chance they get. And because Sacramento matches up better with L.A. than Minnesota did in terms of athleticism and experience, the Sparks must do a better job of dominating the glass and make better decisions with the basketball on every possession. L.A. just needs to tighten up its defense and get more intense. The Sparks can't allow Griffith to get to the low block, turn and seal. They need to meet her at the foul line and make it more of a physical game inside.

X-factors
Point guards Ticha Penicheiro and Nikki Teasley are both great floor leaders who will entertain us with their flashy passing in this series. But Penicheiro's offensive output might be the bigger factor. Penicheiro averaged 5.4 points in the regular season but scored just seven points in the first round. Penicheiro's lack of scoring isn't a concern as long as Sacramento's bench scores to compensate for her 2.3 playoff scoring average (assuming, of course, that the Monarchs' post players are getting the job done inside). But if Sacramento's reserves aren't hitting their shots -- they went 0-for-15 in that Game 2 loss to Houston, for example -- Penicheiro's lack of offense becomes a problem and the Monarchs will struggle.

To beat the Sparks, you've got to force L.A. to use its bench. In their last two wins, the Sparks' starters each scored at least 12 points and played at least 36 minutes. If the Monarchs get L.A.'s Nicky McCrimmon, Sophia Witherspoon and Jen Gillom on the court, and prevent the Sparks' front five from playing 35 minutes or more, Sacramento will win this series.

Favorite
Los Angeles is clearly the better team when it comes to executing in the halfcourt. The Sparks also are a bit more skilled in the tempo of their offense. To win championships in this league, you must be able to score when the game slows down, and L.A. has proven it can.

While it wouldn't surprise me if Sacramento pulls off the upset, I'll stick with the incumbent.

Nancy Lieberman, an ESPN analyst and Hall of Famer, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com's women's basketball coverage. Contact her at www.nancylieberman.com.