The Imperial Palace casino in Las Vegas claims to offer more Super Bowl proposition bets -- 161 -- than any other casino in Sin City. I've seen the list and, when you can wager on whether Joe Jurevicius will catch more passes than goals scored in the Real Madrid versus Athletic Bilbao match, I'm not going to contest the validity of the Imperial's claim.
By comparison, the New York-New York casino sports book offers just 40 proposition bets. In its case, action speaks louder than frivolity. To paraphrase New York-New York sports book director Robert Walker, people don't put a lot of money down on the bets that juxtapose Super Bowl players and teams with other games being played on Super Bowl Sunday. Walker's list is an aggregation of the 40 most monetarily popular propositions of the past few years. And deciding whether Rich Gannon's first pass will be complete or incomplete is about as crazy as it gets down at the New York-New York.
That is not to say that the Imperial Palace doesn't take their list seriously. Says sports book director Jay Kornegay about coming up with the lines for their prop bets, "It's eight guys in a room with pizza, beer and Tylenol for about eight hours." He says that lengthy arguments will break out over a 10-cent discrepancy on where a line should fall. So when you think you have the angle on a wager of whether Creighton's men's basketball team will score more points than Jerry Rice's receiving yardage total (+16.5 yards), you can be sure that the Palace is well aware that the Blue Jays average 83.5 points, their opponent (TCU) allows an average of 82.1 points and Rice has averaged 74.3 yards in 18 games this season.
Yes, the Vegas operators simply can't afford to not crunch their numbers. And if you plan on waging battle with their propositions, you'd best come informed. I've had a chance to peruse the lists, and here are the 10 bets I'd be most tempted to let my money ride on. Call it Prop. 101:
1. Rich Gannon rushing yards or Celtics made 3-point field goals (Imperial Palace)
The Celtics average just over nine treys per game, but that's with Antoine Walker in the lineup. Now that he's out for two weeks with a knee injury, Boston has a void of 2.8 treys to fill. Sans Walker, the Celts aren't a good bet for more than half a dozen deep balls. Can Gannon gain six rushing yards against Tampa Bay? Well, the Bucs gave up more than six rushing yards to a quarterback nine times in 18 games, but no QB topped 19 yards. I'm guessing that Gannon can play it forward for at least 10 yards. Verdict: Gannon
2. Charlie Garner rushing yards (+16.5) or lowest fourth-round score by any player at Phoenix Open (Imperial Palace)
Oakland run? I don't think so. The Bucs haven't yielded more than 66 rushing yards to a running back in their past six games. On the season, they ranked fifth in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed. Figure the best final round score at the TPC at Scottsdale will be around 64-65. If Garner rushes for near 50 yards, he probably wins this bet. But Garner has finished with less than 50 yards in six of his past 13 games. Verdict: Phoenix Open (minus 16.5)
3. Amare Stoudemire points plus rebounds (-3.5) or Brad Johnson completions (Imperial Palace)
Stoudemire has averaged 31.8 combined points and rebounds in his past six games. If he were to keep pace, Johnson's completions to beat Stoudemire would have to range in the very upper 20s with the spread. He's completed more than 24 passes just twice all season, and never more than 28. Verdict: Stoudemire minus 3.5
4. Jerry Rice receptions or Jalen Rose made free throws (Imperial Palace)
The Palace offers this one even up, as Rice has averaged 5.6 receptions in 18 games this season, while Rose hits an average of 5.0 freebies per game. But here's the thing: Rose faces a Houston team that gives up the fewest fouls in the league. And Rice has had reception totals of 11, 7 and 10 in his three previous Super Bowl appearances. Sure, he hasn't played in a Super Bowl since '95, but he's still the leading receiver for a team that led the NFL in completed passes. Verdict: Rice
5. Raiders + Bucs points (-1.5) or Dirk Nowitzki + Steve Nash points (Imperial Palace)
The over/under for the Super Bowl is 43.5 points. Nash and Nowitzki average 40.9 points per game. But, of course, this gap is closed by the 1.5 points that the Imperial Palace is giving the Mavericks' duo. The Bucs have been in only three games this season in which the total score exceeded 43.5 points. And interestingly enough, Nash and Nowitzki have averaged 42 points in the two previous meetings with Portland, Sunday's opponent. With the extra 1.5, they'd be right at the 43.5 number. So, if you think the Super Bowl is going to hit on the under, you'd best go with the hoopers. I do. Verdict: Nash and Nowitzki plus 1.5
6. Who will score last, Tampa Bay (+110) or Oakland (-130) (New York-New York)
I like the history of this one. The Buccaneers have scored last in 14 of the 18 games they've played this season. And, if you believe like I do, that the Bucs will be playing from behind in the waning moments, then odds are they'll be the more aggressive offense down the stretch. Verdict: Tampa Bay
7. Will there be a defensive TD or kickoff/punt return for a TD -- Yes (+190) or No (-230) (New York-New York)
The Super Bowl has been the home of many great defensive touchdowns and return scores over the years. In fact, there has been a defensive or special teams score in seven of the past 10 Super Bowls. And, with six defensive and special teams TDs apiece this regular season, the pirates of the NFL are no strangers to non-offensive scoring. With an affirmative bet offering such sweet odds, it's hard to pass up. I won't. Verdict: Yes
8. Total receptions by Tim Brown -- under 5.5 (-110) or over 5.5 (-110) (New York-New York)
Brown has averaged just 4.5 receptions in his past 11 games, including the postseason. Ignore his nine receptions last week versus Tennessee. The Titans were 10th in the league in completions allowed. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, allowed the fewest completions in the NFL. Brown has to be above average against the league's best pass defense. I don't like it. Verdict: Under 5.5
9. Will Jerry Rice score a touchdown -- Yes (+180) or No (-220) (New York-New York)
Big games suit Rice. He scored three touchdowns in two Monday night appearances during the regular season. And let's not forget those seven touchdowns in three career Super Bowls. The odds are pushing for a "Yes" bet. History is demanding it. Verdict: Yes
10. Total points scored by the Raiders -- under 24 (-110) or over 24 (-110) (New York-New York)
How about this: Just once in 18 games played this season has Tampa Bay allowed more than 24 points, and that was in Week 1 versus New Orleans (26). So, that's 17 straight games allowing 24 points or less. I'm betting on 18 straight. Verdict: under 24
More Imperial Palace Prop. Bets (vs. other sports)
Raiders points or Chris Webber points
Bucs points (-4) or goals scored in all NHL games (+4)
Rich Gannon completions (-2) or Steve Francis points (+2)
Rockets + Bulls 1st-quarter points (-2.5) or Raiders + Bucs (+2.5)
Michael Pittman receiving yards (+2.5) or Jermaine O'Neal points + rebounds (-2.5)
Tim Brown receiving yards (+7.5) or Phil Mickelson's 4th-round score (Phx. Open) (-7.5)
Zack Crockett rushing yards (+3) or Tyson Chandler points (-3)
Raiders first-half points only (+8.5) or Bucs full game points (-8.5)
Brad Johnson TD passes or Markus Naslund points
Charlie Garner receptions or Coyotes + Canucks goals
Rich Gannon gross passing yards (-50.5) or Magic + Celtics points (+50.5)
Jerry Rice receiving yards (+16.5) or Creighton points (-16.5)
Jerry Porter receiving yards (+13.5) or Michigan points (-13.5)
Longest TD of game (-2.5) or Canucks shots on goal (+2.5)
Rich Gannon TD passes (+1) or West Ham + Manchester United Goals (-1)
Joe Jurevicius receptions (+1/2) or Real Madrid + Athletic Bilbao goals (-1/2)
Raiders points (-2.5) or Yao Ming's points + rebounds (+2.5)
More NY-NY Prop. Bets
Team to score first -- Oakland (-150) or Tampa Bay (+130)
Last team to score in 1st half -- Oak (-140) or TB (+120)
First team to score in 2nd half -- Oak (-140) or TB (+120)
Will there be a score in last two minutes of first half -- Yes (-280) or No (+240)
Will there be a score in last two minutes of second half -- Yes (-130) or No (+110)
Total points scored by the Buccaneers -- under 20 (-110) or over 20 (-110)
Will there be a score in the first 5:30 min. of the game -- Yes (even) or No (-120)
Team to have the longest touchdown -- Oak (-150) or TB (+130)
Team to make the longest field goal -- Oak (even) or TB (-120)
Team to make more field goals -- Oak plus 0.5 (-140) or TB (+120)
Will there be a succesful two-point conversion -- Yes (+375) or No (-500)
Team to have more first downs -- Oak minus 2.5 (-130) or TB (+110)
Team to commit more turnovers -- Oak plus 0.5 (-140) or TB (+120)
Team with more punts -- Oak plus 2.5 (even) or TB (-120)
Which team will have most rushing yards -- Oak minus 14.5 (-110) or TB (-110)
Team to complete most passes -- Oak minus 4.5 (-120) or TB (even)
Will Keyshawn Johnson (TB) score a touchdown -- Yes (+220) or No (-260)
Will Zack Crockett (Oak) score a touchdown -- Yes (+120) or No (-140)
Total gross passing yards by Rich Gannon -- under 250.5 (-130) or over 250.5 (+110)
Total rushing yards by Rich Gannon -- under 12.5 (-110) or over 12.5 (-110)
Total passing & rushing touchdowns by Rich Gannon -- under 2.5 (-130) or over 2.5 (+110)
Total rushing and receiving yards by Charlie Garner -- under 109.5 (-110) or over 109.5 (-110)
Total receptions by Jerry Rice -- under 5.5 (-110) or over 5.5 (-110)
Total receptions by Jerry Porter -- under 4.5 (-110) or over 4.5 (-110)
Total gross passing yards by Brad Johnson -- under 231.5 (-110) or over 231.5 (-110)
Total passing and rushing touchdowns by Brad Johnson -- under 1.5 (-130) or over 1.5 (+110)
Total rushing yards by Mike Alstott -- under 47.5 (-110) or over 47.5 (-110)
Total receptions by Keyshawn Johnson -- under 4.5 (-110) or over 4.5 (-110)
Total receptions Keenan McCardell -- under 3.5 (-110) or over 3.5 (-110)
Will Rich Gannon's 1st oficial pass be complete (-150) or incomplete (+130)
Will Brad Johnson's 1st official pass be complete (-130) or incomplete (+110)
Will Charlie Garner's 1st rushing carry be for 3 yards or less (even), 4-7 yards (7/5), 8-12 yards (7/1), 13-20 yards (10/1), 21 or more yards (18/1)
Will Mike Alstott's 1st rushing carry be for 3 yards or less (-180), 4-7 yards (8/5), 8-12 yards 10/1), 13-20 yards (18/1), 21 or more yards (30/1)
Will Jerry Rice's 1st reception be for 5 yards or less (6/1), 6-10 yards (5/2), 11-20 yards (-130), 21 or more yards (5/1)
Will Keyshawn Johnson's 1st reception be for 5 yards or less (8/1), 6-10 yards (5/2), 11-20 yards (-140), 21 or more yards (4/1)