Looking at the final results from Monday's rain-delayed qualifying session for the Daytona 500, I couldn't help but be struck by the number of surprises.
Jeff Green on the pole? Tony Stewart suffering engine problems that prevented him from even taking a run at the top spot? Ricky Rudd going from a bad ending at Robert Yates Racing to a spectacular first effort with the Wood Brothers, winding up fifth (while former teammate Dale Jarrett was seventh and the guy who replaced Rudd at RYR, Elliott Sadler, was a disappointing 20th)?
Or how about Robby Gordon ending up third? Kevin Harvick making a case to rebound from last year's sophomore slump by finishing sixth? Bobby Labonte bouncing back from an off-year to place eighth? And one of the biggest surprises of all, Kyle Petty placing 10th?
Wait, the list of surprises doesn't end there. Last year's wunderkind, Jimmie Johnson, couldn't do better than 16th? Or defending Daytona 500 champ Ward Burton ending up 19th? And what about three of what will be the most-watched rookies in 2003, Greg Biffle (21st), Casey Mears (23rd) and Christian Fittipaldi (24th)?
Or how about Matt Kenseth, who led every driver last season with five wins, placing 25th, while Ryan Newman, last year's Rookie of the Year, scrapping to a disappointing 32nd? And then, next to Stewart, the biggest surprise was Rusty Wallace's disappointing 42nd-place showing.
If Monday's field would have been allowed to stand for Sunday's race, there's no question it could have been one of the most unusual Daytona classics we've seen in many years.
But fortunately for drivers like Stewart, Wallace, Newman and others who didn't do well Monday, they'll have a chance to improve their lot in Thursday's Gatorade 125s, which will ultimately set the field for Sunday's race.
What happened Monday likely won't be what you get Sunday. Here are a few observations:
Team owner Richard Childress is not used to mediocre performances, yet that's what he got last season when Green, Robby Gordon and Harvick finished 17th, 20th and 21st, respectively. Gordon said last month that Childress made it "very clear" just how unacceptable last year's effort was, and that no one was untouchable.
"Richard did a lot during the offseason to make sure we all have a season that is more up to the Childress-like standards in 2003," Gordon said. "It's up to us now."
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| Richard Childress' three cars posted fast laps Monday at Daytona. |
And given that Childress' drivers grabbed Sunday's pole, as well as finished third and sixth, it appears RCR has thrown down the gauntlet for 2003.
Once again, we got the unexpected out of Joe Gibbs Racing, with Labonte, whose team underwent a major overhaul this offseason after a year of struggles, posting the eighth-best time Monday. Meanwhile, Stewart couldn't even get going. It was engine problems that knocked Stewart out of last year's 500 after just two laps, and the same problems which kept him from qualifying Monday.
Engine problems are not typical of JGR, and more emphasis was placed on development and refinement during the off-season, yet motor mayhem still seems to confound the No. 20 team. Could it be Stewart's turn to suffer the fabled Daytona curse that has afflicted certain drivers for decades?
No surprise here: Dale Earnhardt Jr. earning the outside pole, thus avoiding having to race himself into the field in Thursday's 125s. And while 2001 Daytona 500 winner and teammate Michael Waltrip will have to race Thursday, finishing fourth Monday again proved that DEI cars will be among the favorites Sunday. The third DEI driver, Steve Park, was 17th on Monday, but look for a big jump in the 125s.
While Dodge earned the pole at Daytona in 2001 and won the race in 2002, it did not have a good effort Monday. Not one Dodge was to be found in the top-eight finishers. But then positions nine through 12 were Dodge's providence, with Sterling Marlin, Petty, rookie Jamie McMurray and Bill Elliott all in a row. Dodge needs to have better performances Thursday if it hopes to repeat as 500 champion.
Speaking of manufacturers, Chevrolet executives have to be walking around with puffed-out chests, as not only did their Monte Carlo sweep the front row, but six of the top-eight wore the Chevy nameplate. Those results could be an indicator of things to come, at least during the first part of the season.
On the flipside of the manufacturer coin, expect Ford to start screaming about unfair "advantages," particularly if similar results are found in Thursday's 125s. Sure, Ford had two drivers in the top-seven Monday -- Rudd in fifth and Jarrett in seventh -- but only two other Tauruses placed in the top 20.
OK, with all that said, what should we expect from Thursday's races? Will there be any surprises?
Staring into my crystal ball, here are some predictions:
Robby Gordon and Harvick's showings Monday were not flukes. I expect them to be in the first five rows of Sunday's race, provided neither suffers mechanical failure or an on-track mishap Thursday.
Joe Gibbs Racing is burning the midnight oil to come up with a solution to the engine curse that has plagued Stewart at Daytona. I don't expect the defending champion to be in the top-10 for Sunday's field, but look for him to start somewhere in the middle of the pack. At this point, Gibbs engineers will be looking more for durability to get Stewart into the field and help him survive the grueling 200-lap race.
Given DEI's superiority on superspeedways, and Earnhardt Jr.'s individual prowess, the one crown jewel missing from his mantle is a Daytona 500 trophy. It's hard to bet against the No. 8 car, particularly since he'll be one of the two drivers leading the pack at the start -- and he likely could be in the same position at the end.
Jeff Burton struggled last season, struggled in qualifying and could continue to struggle in the early part of the season if he doesn't make a turnaround this week. Even when he released longtime crew chief Frank Stoddard last September, Burton's performance did not improve much. Given the success his Roush Racing teammates enjoyed last season, this could become a make-or-break year for Burton. One more poor showing in the standings and he and the No. 99 car could wind up parting ways.
Hendrick Motorsports' stable Monday saw Joe Nemechek (13th) leading its three-car pack, with teammates Jeff Gordon 29th and Terry Labonte 37th. Look for Gordon to bounce back Thursday, and for Nemechek to have another strong effort. Nemechek could become the most surprising driver on the circuit this season.
In one sense, it's not much of a surprise that Newman was 32nd and Wallace was 42nd on Monday. After Penske South Racing campaigned Fords for nearly a decade, both drivers are still getting used to the Dodge. Neither driver will likely do well at Daytona or the early part of the season. But both should be figures to be reckoned with for the final two-thirds of the season. It's just a matter of getting things sorted out.
There are certainly a lot more surprises, but there will be a lot more proof after Thursday's Gatorade 125s.
Jerry Bonkowski covers NASCAR for ESPN.com.
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