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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Jets at Dolphins


New York offense vs. Miami defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 28
Tot. Yds. 25
Scoring 22
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 35
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 4
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 36
Turnover differential 0
Ray Lucas has done everything coach Bill Parcells could have ever expected from the quarterback, but the fact still remains that Lucas is just a backup quarterback in the league. The Jets' offense relies on RB Curtis Martin to carry the load.

Lucas has shown an awful lot of flair at the position, and his low-risk production has kept the team in games, but the running game must be effective for the Jets to move the ball. Martin rushed for 113 yards last week, which proved to be the difference in the game. The Dolphins will prove to be a tougher opposition to run against this week, as they allow an average of just 90.7 yards per game on the ground.

The play of DT Daryl Gardener has been a huge boost to a unit that was slumping over the course of the last four games. Miami held the Chargers to just 26 yards rushing last week, while Zach Thomas contributed with another dominating performance against the run, recording 13 tackles in the game.

The Dolphins have been forced to back off some of the pressure in the past few weeks because of the benching of Terrell Buckley at the cornerback position. While they were used to playing a lot of eight-men -in-the-box formations, Miami has been forced to play more conservative at the safety position to give help to Patrick Surtain in coverage.

Surtain left last Sunday's game with a concussion, which forced Buckley back into the starting role where he showed remarkable fervor at the position and will likely take the field as the starter this week against the Jets. The Dolphins are now equipped with an outstanding trio at the corner position, giving the defense enough talent in the nickel package to shut down New York's marginal passing attack.

Another huge advantage for the Dolphins is the fact that the Jets' tight ends Fred Baxter and Eric Green have combined for 14 catches on the season. Without the threat of a tight end in the passing game, it allows the Dolphins to put more emphasis on shutting down WRs Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet, and also permits Miami to use more personnel in the blitz package instead of dropping into zone coverage.

The Dolphins are aggressive by nature defensively, and will look to apply as much pressure as possible on the inexperienced quarterback. Lucas has held up wonderfully against the pressure since taking over the starting role, using his speed and quickness to get out of the pocket and create second look opportunities, but Miami is going to be too fast all-around. Against the speed of the Dolphin front seven, the pocket is going to break down a lot quicker, and the pressure is going to be more intense and consistent than what Lucas is used to seeing.

Miami offense vs. New York defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 25
Pass 17
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 34
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 20
vs. Pass 20
Total yds. allowed 22
# of Ints. 19
# of Sacks 25
Turnover differential +11
On paper, this matchup looks ideal for a breakout game for the Dolphin offense. New York's pass rush ranks last in the league, and they are susceptible to both the run and the pass, allowing 113.0 yards per game on the ground and 236.8 yards in the air. However, the one intangible that doesn't show up on paper is Dan Marino's life-long struggle against defensive schemes that Bill Belichick designs to throw the veteran quarterback off his game.

The Jets, however, are having to play a lot of soft zone coverage to protect their secondary, a tactic that worked well in the first meeting between the two teams when WR O.J. McDuffie did not play. McDuffie is one of the elite underneath receivers in the league, and should be able to take advantage of space in the middle of the field. Tony Martin has done an outstanding job of stretching the field, but without McDuffie in the lineup, there has been little production underneath to scare off defenses from dropping back.

Marino should have time to throw against a Jets defensive line that has done little to create a rush and has only recorded 25 sacks on the season. The return of McDuffie should also boost the Dolphins 38.6% touchdown percentage in the redzone. Martin is a vertical receiver who does not go over the middle well, and the Dolphins have had to turn to Orande Gadsden to use his size in the redzone to create space on the fade and crossing routes.

The bad news for the Dolphins is that Gadsden will have to sit out Monday night's game because of a recurring back injury, but the good news is that McDuffie and Yatil Green are both available and should complement each other well inside the redzone in three-receiver sets.

For a team that came into the season with enough running backs to field four full backfields, the current situation is a little disturbing. Miami is forced to shuffle FB Stanley Pritchett into the tailback position, and even though he is running hard, he does not have the breakaway speed or burst to make anything happen in the running game.

Jimmy Johnson is still hopeful that J.J. Johnson will return to the lineup, especially because the Dolphins' rushing game posed little threat to opposing defenses with Pritchett in the backfield rushing for 108 yards and one touchdown on 32 carries in two games. The return of Johnson to the lineup could be huge boost against a Jets' defense that is struggling against the run, giving up an average of 5.8 yards per carry last week on the ground against the Cowboys.

The Jets are still working in a lot of "43" looks up front to defend against the run and create more of a pass rush, but the move has not been effective since the first time they tried it three weeks ago. This unit is simply not big, strong or quick enough to get in the gaps and clog the holes.

Belichick has done an outstanding job putting his players in position by figuring out tendencies, but the defensive front seven is a weak spot on this team, and will have to be addressed in the offseason if the Jets are serious about contending in the AFC next season.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category N.Y. MIA
Punt return avg. 27 9
Kickoff return avg. 4 3
Opp. punt return avg. 15 18
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 31 20
Time of possession 12 8
John Hall, who is battling the most inconsistent season of his career, kicked the game winning 37-yarder last week against the Cowboys. Tom Tupa remains one of the top punters in the league with an average of 45.4 yards per punt. Dwight Stone has reemerged as a top punt return man with an average of 25.3 yards per return.

Olindo Mare is still the top field goal kicker, connecting on 37-of-43 attempts on the season. The Dolphin return teams are solid. Brock Marion is averaging 24.5 yards per kickoff return and Nate Jacquet is averaging 13.5 yards per return. The coverage units have been steady, allowing 10.3 yards per punt return and 22.2 yards per kickoff return.

Key matchups
  • New York RT Ryan Young vs. Miami LE Rich Owens
    Owens has recorded nine sacks on the season, becoming Miami's top pass rusher. This is an interesting matchup because Young has all the physical tools to get in position and lock onto Owens, but the rookie is going to have some trouble with some of Owens' moves off the edge.

  • New York RB Curtis Martin vs. Miami OLBs Derrick Rogers and Robert Jones
    Martin is the backbone of the Jets' offensive attack, and even though he has only notched 40 receptions on the season he is a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. Rogers and Jones play big roles on defense because they must keep contain against Martin and funnel him back inside where there is more help. The interesting part is that Rogers and Jones are integral parts of the upfield rush, but will need to show excellent recognition of where Martin is on the field.

  • Miami WR Tony Martin vs. New York CB Marcus Coleman
    Coleman has shown some flash as a big-play defensive corner, but he may struggle with Martin's speed in this matchup. The key is going to be his ability to turn and run with the burner. If Coleman struggles matching up early on, it will take away from some of the aggressive scheme's that defensive coordinator Bill Belichick is looking to employ.

    New York Jets will win if...
  • They get more out of the tight end position in the passing game. TE's Eric Green and Fred Baxter have been close to non-entities in the Jets' passing game, combining for just 14 catches on the season. The problem this presents is the fact that teams are able to give limited potential to the position, meaning that the safeties can give more help on the outside against WR's Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet.

  • They neutralize Miami's speed on defense by running the ball. The Jets are going to look to establish the run early in the game in order to protect QB Ray Lucas. The Jets' offensive line is shuffled and struggling some in pass protection, which makes running the ball that much more important.

  • The defensive line generates its own pressure. The defensive line has combined for just six sacks on the season, which is forcing the defense to take more risks and get out of position, which is parlaying into giving up a lot of big plays.

    Miami will win if...

  • The defense forces the Jets into throwing the football to win. The Jets do not want to get into a shootout with Ray Lucas behind center. The Dolphins are fast up front, but they tend to wear down and get out of position. Miami want to overcompensate against the run to lure the Jets into throwing the ball.

  • The offensive line does a better job in pass protection. Dan Marino is not taking a lot of sacks, as he usually does not, but the pressure has been consistently disruptive to the timing of the passing game. There is very little rhythm in the passing attack, and Marino is obviously less effective when throwing under duress. He has not adjusted since returning from injury, and the offensive line is going to have to do a better job protecting the veteran if the Dolphins are to match points on Sunday.

  • They get back to a more aggressive scheme defensively. Miami is going to have to over compensate to stop the run, playing more aggressive and gambling more at the cornerback position as they were so successful at doing earlier in the season. Ever since Terrell Buckley was benched, the team has been less aggressive in pass rush, but need to get back to the attacking style of defense in order to create opportunity.

    The War Room edge
    Bill Parcells' team seems to have dedicated itself to playing the role of the spoiler this season, and would love nothing more than a win on Monday night to make the Dolphins sweat their playoff hopes. The Jets are playing well because they are limiting turnovers and creating opportunities on defense. The Dolphins are going to struggle in this contest, as the Jets are undoubtedly going to be up for the event and will be well versed in defensive scheme against QB Dan Marino. Look for a see-saw contest that winds up as a shootout late in the game, where Marino steps up and reestablishes himself as the leader of this team as they head into the playoffs.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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