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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Raiders at Chargers


Oakland offense vs. San Diego defense
RAIDERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 8
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 42
   
CHARGERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 22
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 34
Turnover differential -5
The Raiders are coming off their most dominating rushing performance of the season, as both Tyrone Wheatley (19 att., 111 yds.) and Napoleon Kaufman (8 att., 122 yds.) broke the 100-yard barrier, marking just the second time in franchise history the feat has been accomplished.

Oakland attacked the heart of the Bucs' defense last week instead of trying to run wide against their speedy linebackers. That game plan won't work this week versus San Diego DTs Norman Hand and John Parella because the Raiders will not be able to simply engulf the massive run-stuffers. The Chargers were strong up the middle against Wheatley in the first meeting between these teams, holding him to just 2.7 yards per carry. Therefore, expect Oakland to attack the flanks with Kaufman, where he can use his speed to get outside and take advantage of the Chargers' injury-riddled secondary in the open field.

One area that defensive coordinator Joe Pascale will stress is quarterback containment. QB Rich Gannon had his way with the Chargers, breaking contain for 43 yards on seven carries. OLB Junior Seau, who is at his best when he freelances, must play with great range and prevent Gannon from keeping drives alive with his feet.

Although he wasn't asked to win the game with his arm last week against the Bucs, Gannon came out sharp and prevented the Bucs from using SS John Lynch near the line of scrimmage in run support. The Raiders jumped out to a fast start against Tampa Bay, marching 84 yards on nine plays with Gannon making some critical third-down throws.

In their Week 10 contest, Gannon made some crucial throws not only on third down, but also in the red-zone. The Chargers must play more aggressive pass defense inside the 20 if they want to split the season series. Complicating matters, San Diego could be without Pro Bowl SS Rodney Harrison, who re-injured his shoulder in last week's loss at Miami.

Against the Raiders' seventh ranked red-zone offense, OLB Lew Bush needs to do a better job shadowing TE Rickey Dudley, who burned him for to touchdowns six weeks ago. Bush has a good feel in coverage and rarely makes mistakes but Dudley was able to lose him in the endzone for a pair of short scores.

The Raiders' run game was so successful last week that it discouraged the Bucs from going hard after the quarterback. The Chargers get little pressure without the blitz and they can't afford to sit back and play conservatively against an accurate quarterback like Gannon.

San Diego offense vs. Oakland defense
CHARGERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 31
Pass 18
Tot. Yds. 27
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 39
   
RAIDERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 10
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 11
# of Ints. 19
# of Sacks 39
Turnover differential +5
San Diego's no-huddle offense confused defenses for a couple of weeks but the Dolphins game planned effectively and completely shut down the Chargers. Head coach Mike Riley needs to come up with a new gimmick this week to catch Oakland's inconsistent defense off-guard.

The Raiders were dominant last week, exposing Tampa QB Shaun King for what he is, a rookie. While they won't be able to rattle QB Jim Harbaugh as easily, Oakland's front four should have their way with an offensive line that struggles to contain quick one-gap players.

The Chargers have been relying too heavily on the short passing game to move the football. While Riley wanted his quarterback to take more shots down the field against Miami, Harbaugh simply didn't have enough time in the pocket to let the routes develop. San Diego's go-to guy in the passing game, Jeff Graham was bottled up last week with double-teams and coverages that funneled him inside. WR's Chris Penn, who flopped the starting job with now No. 3 Mikhael Ricks, managed just one catch and didn't pose a threat opposite Graham. Oakland's underneath coverage versus the Bucs was outstanding, holding RB Warrick Dunn to just 36 yards on five receptions.

TE Freddie Jones needs to make a greater impact on Sunday than he has in recent weeks. Jones, who caught just two passes a week ago, should be able to work on "Sam" linebacker Richard Harvey. The Raiders just moved Harvey to the strong side a couple of weeks ago and is still working to find his feel in coverage.

In order for the undermanned Chargers to compete, they must develop good balance on offense. If last week's 21-carry, 26-yard rushing effort -- the team's lowest of the season -- is any indication of the direction the Chargers' running game is headed, Harbaugh will be running for his life. Neither Fletcher nor Natrone Means is running with enough authority to make a difference. Their struggles compound the team's woeful red-zone attack. After having three first down opportunities inside the 14-yard line, the Chargers settled for three field goals last week in their 12-9 loss. With solid cover corners like Charles Woodson and Eric Allen on the outside, Means has to step it up and run hard between the tackles.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category OAK SD
Punt return avg. 15 25
Kickoff return avg. 28 27
Opp. punt return avg. 19 13
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 17 28
Time of possession 2 17
Oakland might have found an answer to their kicking problems with the addition of PK Joe Nedney, who connected on his only field goal attempt and nailed 3-of-8 kickoffs into the endzone. San Diego's John Carney, normally automatic from inside 40 yards, pulled a potential game-tying 36-yarder. Carney will surely bounce back but the Chargers shouldn't be relying on him so much for points. P Darren Bennett needs a big game to help his team's struggling offense with good field position. Oakland PR Darrien Gordon hasn't busted a long one in quite some time but he will test San Diego's solid coverage units. Charger PR Charlie Jones fielded all his attempts cleanly against Miami but he was unable to make an impact. Oakland P Leo Araguz will give Jones chances.

Key matchups
  • Oakland front four vs. San Diego QB Jim Harbaugh
    The Raiders got after Tampa rookie Shaun King last Sunday and finished with four sacks. Defensive coordinator Willie Shaw is lucky he has such vast depth up front because he's going to need it against Harbaugh and the no-huddle attack. Harbaugh must stand in and take some punishment in order to keep his team competitive.

  • San Diego LDE Al Fontenot vs. Oakland ROT Lincoln Kennedy
    Kennedy and the rest of the Raider offensive line did a tremendous job against Tampa's elite defense, holding them to a single sack and paving the way for 262 rushing yards. Fontenot is a run-stuffing specialist whos poses problems because of his ability to stack and shed at the point of attack. This one promises to be a physical battle.

  • San Diego SS Rodney Harrison vs. Oakland RB Tyrone Wheatley
    With Harrison back in the lineup, the Chargers have a much better chance of slowing down Wheatley's inside power game. Wheatley averaged only 2.7 yards per carry in the first meeting between these teams but he managed to snare a pair of touchdown passes from QB Gannon. If the Raiders can't get him on track on the ground, look for them involve him on screens.

    Oakland will win if...
  • The offense can run the ball and keep their defense fresh. The Raiders dominated time of possession in their previous win over the Chargers by running 18 more (68-50) offensive plays. Oakland is a tough team to beat if they execute head coach Jon Gruden's ball-control game plan.

  • They are efficient on third down. QB Gannon is the type of poised veteran who completes big plays to keep the chains moving. Earlier in the season against the Chargers, he helped his team convert 8-of-13 third down chances. San Diego can't afford to give up big chunks of yardage on first down like they did in the previous meeting.

  • The defense is able to shut down one aspect of the Chargers' offense. San Diego has been competitive against good competition the past few weeks with a stingy defense and an offense that confuses defenses. The Raiders must get after the quarterback early and force some poor throws or shut down a floundering running attack. If they do either, look for Oakland to roll.

    San Diego will win if...

  • They don't let QB Gannon beat them with his feet. The Chargers did an excellent job of containing the running backs in the initial contest but Gannon broke loose on a couple of key plays that kept drives alive. San Diego must do a better job of keeping contain on the outside and being more gap responsible between the tackles to prevent a repeat performance.

  • They play better defense in the red-zone. The Chargers had a tough time with TE Dudley and RB Wheatley in their Week 10 loss, allowing both players to score a pair of touchdowns from short distance. QB Gannon has made good decisions with the football inside the 20 all season and is always aware of his dump-off options. San Diego needs solid play from their linebackers in coverage.

  • They get production out of the running game. This has been a huge problem area for the Chargers all year and last week's 21-carry, 26-yard performance was no different. The Raiders' aggressive style of defense will pose the same problems that Miami's did last week. RB Means needs to be a factor to compliment resurgent QB Harbaugh.

    The War Room edge
    After last week's 45-0 blowout of Tampa Bay, it's hard to envision them struggling with the Chargers, but that's exactly what will happen on Sunday. Head coach Mike Riley has his team competing but getting them up after the heartbreaker in Miami will be difficult. Everything went the Raiders way against the Bucs and Jim Harbaugh won't be as easy to defend as Shaun King was last week. San Diego's defense will keep it close once again but Oakland simply has too much offensive balance for them to pull out the win.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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