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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Vikings at Giants


Minnesota offense vs. New York defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 3
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 6
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 37
   
GIANTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 7
vs. Pass 13
Total yds. allowed 8
# of Ints. 15
# of Sacks 31
Turnover differential -8
Despite playing without underneath possession receiver Cris Carter, the Vikings' passing game didn't miss a beat against the Packers. QB Jeff George strengthened his case as one of the team's legitimate leaders by throwing two huge touchdown passes in a must-win game. George withstood Green Bay's constant blitzing and completed critical third-down throws to sustain scoring drives. His recognition of coverages and ability to thread the ball into tight spots will demoralize the Giants on Sunday.

New York's banged up secondary will get a boost from increased play by Conrad Hamilton, who played in a dime role last week against the Rams, and the likely return of starting DC Phillipi Sparks. Journeymen Emmanuel McDaniel and Jeremy Lincoln played admirably in last Sunday's loss but St. Louis' ability to chew up yards after the catch ultimately killed them.

Unlike shifty Rams' WR's Issac Bruce and Az Hakim, the Vikings' receivers are more straightline-type players that will simply run past them. Randy Moss came up huge against the Packers, repeatedly beating single coverage en route to a 131-yard, two-touchdown performance. Defensive coordinator John Fox will learn from the Packers' mistake and choose to double-team Moss, forcing a hobbled Carter and healthy Jake Reed to beat them.

The Giants have overcome injuries in the secondary all year to hold opponents to a respectable 209.2 yards per game through the air. The reason for the team's surprising success has been the play of the front four. When this group plays up to its potential and puts heat on the quarterback, the Giants generally fare well. RDE Cedric Jones will give LOT Todd Stuessie trouble with his speed off the edge, especially if the Vikings' All-Pro struggles early.

The Rams took it to the Giants on the ground last week despite losing their best linemen (Orlando Pace) to an ejection. Minnesota must mirror St. Louis' game plan and beat the Giants physically at the line of scrimmage and on the second-level against the linebackers.

Pro Bowl OLB Jesse Armstead fought through his worst outing of the season, registering just two tackles against scatback Marshall Faulk. Vikings' RB Robert Smith will pose similar problems with his ability to bounce the run wide or take advantage of cutback lanes.

One area where the Vikes must improve this week is in short-yardage situations. Green Bay stuffed power back Leroy Hoard on numerous occasions last week, forcing Ray Sherman to call unconventional pass plays on third down.

The Giants are limiting opposing runners to just 3.1 yards per carry on the season and they must shut down Smith and Hoard on Sunday to prevent the Vikings from establishing offensive balance. If George has the benefit of play-action, New York's defense will be in for a long afternoon.

New York offense vs. Minnesota defense
GIANTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 17
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 18
Sacks allowed 30
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 19
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 29
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 34
Turnover differential -8
St. Louis' offense scored early last week, which afforded their defense the opportunity to play aggressive and gamble. Thus, the Rams' defense scored two touchdowns of their own en route to their 31-10 victory. This is the exact formula that the Vikings used last season when they posted a 15-1 record.

If New York's defense does their part, QB Kerry Collins must play a mistake-free game and eliminate costly turnovers. Collins put up some solid numbers in the passing game against a capable Rams' secondary but eventually reverted back to his propensity for errant throws. In his defense, Collins didn't have the benefit of a running game, but that might be the case again this week.

The Vikings' secondary held up surprisingly well last Monday against the Packers, holding Brett Favre in check for most of the night. The key to their success was the pressure created up front by DE Chris Doleman and a variety of blitzes that mostly featured OLB Dwayne Rudd. New York's interior offensive line held up well versus St. Louis but the Rams were able to generate pressure off the edges.

Minnesota defensive coordinator Foge Fazio will implement another aggressive game plan this week in order to rush Collins' reads. Look for the Vikings to roll coverage WR Amani Toomer's way and for the corners to funnel him inside where help will be waiting. Toomer continued his torrid season last week, amassing his fourth 100-yard game of the season.

Jim Fassel's offense continues to struggle in a one-dimensional mode. Their lack of a running game is putting too much added pressure on Collins to make plays. RB Joe Montgomery carried 12 times for 41 yards but his inability to provide a spark early forced the team to abandon the run once they fell behind. If the Vikings come out with an honest 4-3 defense, Montgomery should find some holes against a sagging run defense.

Minnesota's front seven didn't play the run well in the first half last week, allowing Dorsey Levens to pile up 76 of his 99 yards before halftime. It wasn't until SS Robert Griffith crept toward the line of scrimmage that the Vikings had success against the run.

Similar to the Vikings, Fassel's team has had trouble in short-yardage and goal-line situations. The offensive line must play with more of an attitude this Sunday if the Giants are to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIN N.Y.
Punt return avg. 14 4
Kickoff return avg. 10 12
Opp. punt return avg. 14 27
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 15 13
Time of possession 21 19
Luckily for the Vikings, fumbles by KOR Robert Tate and PR Randy Moss didn't cost the team a win last week. Although both players have game-breaking potential, they need to take better care of the ball against New York's marginal cover teams. The Giants did an excellent job of containing St. Louis' explosive return teams last week and must log a repeat performance in order to give their offense good field position. Giants PR Tiki Barber, who ranks fourth in the league with a 12.0 average, needs to make an impact in order for the Giants to pull out a victory. Neither New York's Cary Blanchard nor Minnesota's Gary Anderson is automatic and conditions in the Meadowlands could pose problems on Sunday. Dome kickers like Anderson don't typically fare well in late-season games outdoors, so the Giants could have the advantage in the kicking game.

Key matchups
  • Minnesota RDE Chris Doleman vs. New York LOT Roman Oben
    The Vikings need a strong effort from Doleman and the rest of the front four in order to rattle QB Collins early. Doleman, who has gotten stronger over the second half of the season, must counter Oben's finesse style with physical play at the point of attack.

  • New York LDE Michael Strahan vs. Minnesota ROT Korey Stringer
    Strahan's disappointing season continued last week when St. Louis' Fred Miller, who is a marginal starter for the Rams, neutralized him. Stringer has had an up-and-down season but the coaching staff likes his chances this week. Stringer could be susceptible to Strahan's quick double-moves in pass protection but he'll dominate when the Vikings run the football.

  • New York DC Jeremy Lincoln vs. Minnesota WR Randy Moss
    This could be Moss' biggest game of the season. The Giants' secondary, especially Lincoln, gave up way too many yards after the catch in the loss last week at St. Louis. Unlike the Rams, who did most of their damage with crossing routes, look for the Vikings to attack the deep third with Moss.

    Minnesota will win if...
  • They play better run defense between the tackles. Minnesota has been soft up the middle this season and Jim Fassel will attack them where they're most vulnerable. MLB Ed McDaniel isn't diagnosing plays well so quick-hitting draw and lead plays should work well for the Giants.

  • They don't look past this one. With a meaningful division battle against Detroit on deck, head coach Dennis Green must have his team prepared for the task at hand. This game is just as important as the finale and the Giants are dangerous team now that they're out of the playoff hunt.

  • They run the ball effectively on first down. Too many third-and-longs will be their downfall in the often-windy December conditions at the Meadowlands. QB George is a strong-armed guy but he won't have much room for error against the Giants' zone defense.

    New York Giants will win if...

  • They prevent the deep ball and keep plays in front of them. Because of all the injuries in the secondary, look for the Giants to play a deep zone that concedes underneath routes. The Rams burned them with great efforts after the catch, but the Vikings don't have the same shifty open-field threats. The only way the Vikings will beat them deep is if WR Moss catches a couple of jump balls.

  • They run the football and keep the Vikings' offense off the field. This is the same objective that the Giants couldn't successfully accomplish in last week's loss against the Rams. Third down specialist Tiki Barber continues to make an impact but the team isn't getting enough from starter Montgomery. Time of possession will be a key factor in this one.

  • They play with better poise than a week ago. New York was never a threat last Sunday once they fell behind 10-0 at halftime. QB Collins made some poor throws into tight coverage and ruined what turned out to be a pretty solid defensive effort by his teammates. The Vikings don't possess an opportunistic defense but Collins has proven to be an easy player to rattle.

    The War Room edge
    This one would play out entirely different if the Giants had everyone healthy on defense. However, look for QB George to pick apart a marginal secondary and RB Smith to keep the Giants off balance with consistent gains on the ground. New York will rebound from last week's disappointing loss and score some points but it won't be enough in this track meet affair. Dennis Green's team still has a chance to stir things up in the playoffs.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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