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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Jaguars at Titans


Jacksonville offense vs. Tennessee defense
JAGUARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 2
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 4
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 30
   
TITANS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 12
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 21
# of Ints. 12
# of Sacks 49
Turnover differential +14
With James Stewart and Fred Taylor splitting the duties at the running back position this season, the Jaguars rank second in the league, averaging 134.1-yards per game on the ground. With Stewart likely to sit out the rest of the regular season with a foot injury, Taylor is back in the spotlight, handling the role as well as ever in a 136-yard rushing performance versus the Browns last Sunday. The key to this entire offense is the Jaguars ability to get the ground game rolling early.

With so many weapons at the specialty positions, Jacksonville thrives off the play-action fake. And if there is one aspect of the Titan defense that can be exploited, it is their discipline. Tennessee's scheme is extremely aggressive and calls for lots of blitz and stunt action, but it can also tempt players to over-commit and get out of position.

Tennessee has done a fair job against the run this season, allowing an average of 96.5-yards per game, but they have also given up some big plays against the run, which is scary against an explosive back like Fred Taylor.

In the first contest, the Titans were fortunate that Taylor was out of the lineup, and held Stewart to 98 yards on 25 carries. The difference this time is that the Titans are going to be forced to respect the Jaguars running game more, which means they will be able to double team the Jacksonville receivers less.

The Titans are going to have to overcompensate against the run, at least more than in the first meeting between these teams. Jacksonville should take advantage of the Titans aggressive style, because they have the talent at the receiver position to exploit the man-to-man matchups. Obviously, Tennessee is not going to ask their corners to play single-man coverage without help from the safeties or linebackers, but play-action becomes a major concern for the Titans because they are going to ask a lot of their safeties.

Safeties Marcus Robertson and Blaine Bishop are aggressive players and are fully capable of getting caught peeking at the play fake in the backfield. This is obviously not going to be a consistent problem, but the dangerous part of the Jaguar offense is that they can strike at any time. It just takes one time when the safeties get caught too close to the line of scrimmage for QB Mark Brunell to go up top to one of his home run threat receivers.

The trenches are also going to make for some truly marquee matchups. The one advantage the Jaguars have is at the offensive tackle position, where Tony Boselli and Leon Searcy are the league's top tandem. Against Tennessee's explosive edge rush, the Jaguars are better equipped to protect their quarterback than any other team in the league.

Searcy is going to draw assignment against DE Jevon Kearse. This is the marquee matchup of the game. Searcy has been the Jaguars top offensive lineman, but perhaps has not received the deserving credit because he plays opposite Tony Boselli. He will line head up on the league's top defensive rookie in what could be the most determining matchup of the contest. Kearse has shown Lawrence Taylor-like qualities in just his first season as the Titan's defensive end. Searcy is bigger and stronger than Kearse, but Searcy may have trouble with Kearse's speed and athleticism as a pass rusher.

Tennessee offense vs. Jacksonville defense
TITANS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 19
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 10
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 23
   
JAGUARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 4
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 2
# of Ints. 17
# of Sacks 54
Turnover differential +14
Steve McNair proved last week why he is, and will remain, the starter of the Titans. The War Room is not particularly excited about his passing skills and decision making, but he does know how to win and he is a competitor. On top of the fact that he did not throw an interception and threw for over 215 yards, McNair led the team in rushing with 76 yards on nine carries.

Also, McNair has taken a lot of flack since coming back from injury when he replaced Neil O'Donnell (4-1 as the starter), but his No. 1 receiver Yancey Thigpen has been out, and the timing of the offense has taken some time to come back. McNair finally looks comfortable in the offense, but he is still having trouble with some of the intermediate timing patterns and the pressure that the Jaguars are going to apply could set his progress back a few steps.

The Titans get Thigpen back this week, which is a huge boost to the passing game, but the concern is timing between the quarterback and his receiver. One big advantage the Titans have going into the game is the fact that the Jaguar pass rush is depleted because of injuries to DE Tony Brackens, 12 sacks on the season (knee), and Kevin Hardy, 9.5 sacks on the season (neck). The Jaguars will continue to play an aggressive scheme, but with two of their top pass rushers playing sparingly with injury, McNair is bound to have more time in the pocket to make his reads.

An interesting aspect of the previous Jags-Titans meeting is that Tennessee only threw for 206 yards and Eddie George rushed for just 57 yards on 18 carries. The Jaguars are stout against the run, allowing just 84.7 yards per game, which is a problem for the Titans. Tennessee is reliant on running the football to not only set up the pass, but to control the tempo of the game.

Jacksonville has not only benefitted from Dom Capers' aggressive scheme, but also from the emergence of DT's Gary Walker and Seth Payne at the defensive tackle position. Even though the defensive ends and linebackers seem to get all the recognition on this unit, Walker and Payne are the catalysts. It is their ability to clog gaps in the middle that opens up so many blitz lanes and room to stunt up front. As they did in the first game, the interior line of the Titans is going to struggle to create a surge against Walker and Payne.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category JAC TEN
Punt return avg. 8 16
Kickoff return avg. 31 24
Opp. punt return avg. 6 8
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 26 8
Time of possession 1 10
Mike Hollis is the second-rated field goal kicker in the league, connecting on 30-of-35 for the season with a long from 50-yards out. Bryan Barker's numbers are deceiving as the teams' punter. He is averaging only 41.9 yards per punt, but he is only allowing 16.7% of his punts to be returned and has landed 32 of his attempts inside the opponents' twenty-yard line. Reggie Barlow has shown some flair this season as the team's punt return specialist, averaging 11.0-yards per return with one touchdown.

Craig Hentrich is averaging 42.5-yards per punt, but direction and placement have been inconsistent throughout the season. Derrick Mason has been flashy, but is now only averaging 9.1-yards per punt return. The coverage units have been outstanding for the Titans, only allowing 7.5-yards per punt return and 19.9-yards per kickoff return.

Key matchups
  • Jacksonville RT Leon Searcy vs. Tennessee DE Jevon Kearse
    In the best game of the week, this is the featured matchup. Searcy has been the Jaguars top offensive lineman, but perhaps has not received the credit playing opposite Tony Boselli. He will line head up on the league's top defensive rookie in what should be the game's determining matchup. Kearse has shown Lawrence Taylor-like qualities in just his first season as the Titan's defensive end. Searcy is bigger and stronger, but may have trouble with Kearse's speed and athleticism as a pass rusher.

  • Jacksonville WR Keenan McCardell vs. Tennessee DC Denard Walker
    This is going to be a crucial matchup, especially considering that the Titans are going to be aggressive, using safeties in run support as well as in the blitz package. Tennessee is going to expect Walker to play lots of single-man coverage with little help in the deep third. McCardell is the key to the Jaguars offense. Because of all the attention that Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith get, McCardell is the player that needs to step up in man-to-man coverage and become the go-to receiver for Mark Brunell.

  • Tennessee HB Frank Wycheck vs. Jacksonville SS Donovan Darius
    Wycheck has become that one aspect of the Titan offense that poses a threat to opponents. He is not a deep threat in the passing game, but his ability to pick up critical yardage makes him dangerous. The Jaguars are not going to be able to matchup a linebacker on Wycheck because it would put them at an immediate disadvantage. This means that Darius is going to have to come up from his strong safety position to cover Wycheck off the line. Darius is a physical enough player to fight through the traffic underneath, but he is going to have to do an excellent job of getting in position and to cover the H-Back in the short-to-intermediate area.

    Jacksonville will win if...
  • They execute off the play-action. The Jaguars have the capability to be one of the most balanced offenses in the league. The running game is so effective, that it opens up the passing game and creates a lot of mismatches in coverage. The Jaguars need to take advantage of Tennessee's over-pursuit and single-man coverages off the play-action fake.

  • The defense forces Tennessee to the air. Jacksonville knows that if they force Tennessee to abort the running game that they put themselves in excellent position to win. Tennessee is one of the tougher teams in the league to beat when they are able to run the ball because of the play of their defense. Expect the Jaguars to gamble some up front, showing a lot of eight-man fronts to force the Titans to rely on the arm of Steve McNair.

  • LB Bryce Paup gives the defense more production. Paup has been a disappointment overall this season, giving the Jaguars less of a presence in pass rush than originally anticipated. Jacksonville still leads the league in quarterback sacks, but the team is in desperate need of more production out of Paup's position.

    Tennessee will win if...

  • The offense gets more production out of its vertical passing game. Tennessee needs some big plays out of its offense. The team is averaging just 219.6 yards per game passing, which has allowed for opponents to stack the line of scrimmage and over commit to the run without getting burned. If the Titans are going to move the ball offensively against the top overall defense in the league, they will need some big plays out of the receiving corps.

  • The offensive game plan is effective neutralizing the blitz. The Titans can expect an aggressive defensive look on Sunday. The Jaguars are going to use up to seven and eight men in the blitz package to stop the run and get pressure on Steve McNair. The Titans need to do a good job with hot reads, screens and draws in order to exploit the upfield rush.

  • FS Marcus Robertson plays disciplined. Against such a productive running game, and a team that takes chances off the play-action fake, the free safety is vital. Robertson is not only going to have to make his presence felt against the run, but must also be disciplined to avoid getting caught peeking in the backfield against the play-action fake.

    The War Room edge
    The likelihood of Tennessee gaining two games on Jacksonville in the final two games is slim, but this is an excellent opportunity to make a run at it. The Titans won this battle the first time the two teams met in Jacksonville, and now have the built-in advantage of playing at home in front of one of the better crowds in football. Do not look for a lot of fireworks out of these two clubs, as both teams will look to establish a running game and play physical defense. Even though the Jaguars have not played much of a schedule and struggled in the first meeting, the team has too many weapons on offense, and should be able to get to Steve McNair and force some big turnovers. The Jaguars will win what should be a close, low-scoring contest that features over 75 running attempts between the two teams.

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