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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Colts at Browns


Indianapolis offense vs. Cleveland defense
COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 18
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 4
Scoring 3
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 14
   
BROWNS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 31
vs. Pass 15
Total yds. allowed 31
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 25
Turnover differential -10
The impressive thing about the Colts is their ability to adjust. Watching film becomes a schooling session on how to tweak schemes and balance the attack in order to exploit defensive tendencies. Obviously, when you have talent like the Colts have, the job of the offensive coordinator is made much easier, but this is still a technically sound group that has the capability to break any defensive look because of their adaptability.

Perhaps the most important player in the entire system is RB Edgerrin James. It is true that without an offensive line, strong receiving corps and Pro Bowl quarterback that James would be much less effective, but the manner in which he finds a way to contribute in all facets of the game is special. James is a proven runner, blocker and receiver, which make this offense so diverse.

Take a look at last week's film. The Redskins dedicated their entire defensive scheme to stopping the run, which they did successfully in the first half, limiting James to just 19 yards rushing, but James then contributed a 37-yard touchdown reception before the end of the half. This type of production plants the seed in the defenses' mind and will change the aggressive nature of the unit, as evidenced when the Redskins backed off some in the second half and James struck for 70 yards.

All of this said, the Browns are in over their heads against the Colts' offensive attack. Despite the fact that they held Jacksonville relatively in check, only allowing 24 points, the Colts are more consistent in their attack, and should be able to methodically sustain scoring drives on the league's worst run defense -- yielding 174.4 yards per game on the ground.

Injuries have forced Indianapolis to spread the production around in the passing game, and they have been extremely successful doing so. James' role has increased as a receiver out of the backfield because of injuries to No. 2 receiver Jerome Pathon.

E.G. Green has also had to step up his level of play, moving from the nickel receiver to the second spot, although consistency has been a problem for Green. He looked to be having a breakout game with two big first-down catches in the first half last week against the Redskins, but then proceeded to drop an easy catch late in the third quarter. Green will play a critical role in the passing game this week as he needs to draw attention from the No. 2 receiver position in order to free up some room in the secondary for Marvin Harrison to work.

Daylon McCutcheon is the Browns top cover corner, but he will cover Green instead of Marvin Harrison for a couple of reasons. First, McCutcheon plays the right cornerback position and does not move sides for fear of footwork and technique problems. Also, if McCutcheon takes Green out of the game, it leaves the rest of the secondary to cover Harrison and the tight ends.

Cleveland offense vs. Indianapolis defense
BROWNS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 25
Tot. Yds. 30
Scoring 31
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 60
   
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 15
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 17
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 41
Turnover differential -5
As if the Browns did not have enough offensive worries, they now enter their final game of the season without starting OTs Lomas Brown and Orlando Brown, as well as QB Tim Couch.

The Browns, especially with the injuries on the line, are incapable of establishing a running game. Too many times RBs Karim Abdul-jabbar and Terry Kirby get to the line of scrimmage and find absolutely no crease or running room to work with. The Browns are facing too many second-and-long and third-and-long situations, and the Colts are not a team you want to get in those situations against.

However, if Indianapolis has one weakness, it is a run defense that ranks just 15th in the league, surrendering over 4.1 yards per carry. The Browns, especially with Couch out of the lineup, will take their chances on the ground early on. The problem Cleveland cannot overcome is the shape of its offensive line.

The popular thinking would be to open up the offense and take some more chances in the passing game to neutralize the blitz, but the Colts are one of the top pass defenses in the league, and their zone-blitz scheme is going to give QB Ty Detmer problems in just his second start this season.

The Browns must make some serious precautions against the blitz this Sunday. In this their last game, the Browns need to find a way to protect their quarterback. Too many seven-step drops and not enough help from tight ends and running backs in pass protection have resulted in a league-high 60 sacks.

The Colts have had a steady edge pass rush, mostly in part to great upfield burst from DEs Chad Bratzke, Bernard Whittington and Mark Thomas. OTs Lomas Brown (knee) and Orlando (suspension) are out of Sunday's game, which means the Browns are stuck with Steve Zahursky and Chris Ruhman at the tackle position and the Colts are going to target this position in the blitz package. Cleveland is going to have to motion and align TE Irv Smith back and forth to give him some assistance to his tackles on passing downs as well as in the run game.

The problem is going to be when defensive coordinator Vic Fangio goes to his athletic "34" look, replacing a defensive tackle with OLB Mike Peterson. Fangio has been extremely successful using his athletic personnel to create a greater pass rush, and it should create tremendous problems for an offensive line that is depleted by injury and slow-footed as whole.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category IND CLE
Punt return avg. 18 29
Kickoff return avg. 13 22
Opp. punt return avg. 31 25
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 23 5
Time of possession 14 31
Mike Vanderjagt has emerged as one of the top kickers in the league, connecting on 29-of-30 attempts this season, with a long of 53 yards. Hunter Smith is averaging 43.3 yards per punt, but he has only had to make 49 attempts on the season. Terrence Wilkins has brought flash to the return units, but consistency is a problem. Overall, Wilkins is averaging 23.6 yards per kickoff return and 9.1 yards per punt return.

Chris Gardocki has now attempted 100 punts, averaging 43.9 yards per attempt. The Browns coverage units have been horrid this season, especially the tackling. The unit has allowed 10.8 yards per punt return and a costly 72-yard kickoff return two weeks ago.

Key matchups
  • Indianapolis WR E.G. Green vs. Cleveland CB Daylon McCutcheon
    McCutcheon is the teams' top cover corner, but he will cover Green instead of Marvin Harrison for a couple of reasons. First, McCutcheon plays the right cornerback position and does not move sides for fear of footwork and technique problems. Also, if McCutcheon takes Green out of the game, it leaves the rest of the secondary to cover Harrison and the tight ends.

  • Indianapolis OC Larry Moore vs. Cleveland MLB Wali Rainer
    Rainer is the Browns playmaker against the run, and has shored up the inside on the worst run defense in the league. If the Colts can take Rainer out of position, RB Edgerrin James will have a huge game on the ground. The Browns are undersized and outmanned up front, which means Moore will have the opportunity to get out off the line of scrimmage and chip Rainer in the run game.

  • Cleveland TE Irv Smith vs. Indianapolis DEs Chad Bratzke, Bernard Whittington and Mark Thomas
    The Colts have had a steady edge pass rush, mostly in part to great upfield burst from Bratzke, Whittington and Thomas. OTs Lomas Brown (knee) and Orlando (suspension) are out of Sunday's game, which means the Browns are stuck with Steve Zahursky and Chris Ruhman at the tackle position and the Colts are going to target this position in the blitz package. Cleveland is going to have to motion and align Smith back and forth to give him some assistance to his tackles on passing downs as well as in the run game.

    Indianapolis will win if...
  • They attack the Browns offensive tackles. Playing without Lomas and Orlando, Cleveland is in trouble against the edge blitz. Indianapolis is going to come after Ty Detmer, who is starting his first game since Week 1, looking to exploit the inexperience and lack of talent at the position.

  • The offense dedicates itself to the ground game early. In a game like this, the Colts would love to win the battle in the trenches by running the ball over 30 times and chewing up the clock. The Colts do not want to have to send Peyton Manning back into the pocket with great frequency, and would love to slow down the tempo of the game by controlling the ground game.

  • Peyton Manning gets his tight ends involved in the passing game. This game is a perfect opportunity for the Colts to establish their tight ends as threats in the passing game. The Colts need more production out of the position in order to draw more attention in the middle of the field, giving the wideouts and RB Edgerrin James better matchups to work against.

    Cleveland will win if...

  • Defensive coordinator Bob Slowik takes a more aggressive approach. The Browns are playing soft on defense. They are doing little up front to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the secondary is not playing aggressive either. In the final game of the season, Slowik needs to employ a more aggressive scheme to take some chances on making big plays.

  • Safeties Corey Fuller and Marquez Pope play disciplined. Fuller and Pope are crucial components in the defensive scheme, because they are the two players that not only need to have huge roles in run support to help their undersized front seven, but they also cannot afford to get caught peeking when the Colts play-action to the pass.

  • QB Ty Detmer can handle the blitz. Detmer is starting a game for the first time since Week 1, and he is bound to be rusty. The Browns are in trouble up front, which means that Detmer is going to be working against the blitz on most passing downs. Detmer may be somewhat of a sitting duck, but as the game progresses, the veteran should be able to make some of the recognition calls that force the Colts to give a more honest look.

    The War Room edge
    A tough way for the Browns to go out, but in a year that has seen it all, the Browns will end the season much to the way they started the season, when they dropped the opener to Pittsburgh 45-0. With both offensive tackles missing and QB Tim Couch out for the last game of the season, the Browns are going to be able to do very little offensively. Indianapolis is going to play it close to the vest and will likely pull the starters out mid-way through the second half after already clinching the division, but will not do so until the game is well in hand. The Colts are going to be able to do just about whatever they want on both sides of the ball, and have proven this season that they will take care of business against the lower-echelon teams.

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