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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Cardinals at Falcons


Arizona offense vs. Atlanta defense
CARDINALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 31
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 25
Sacks allowed 41
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 29
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 15
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 38
Turnover differential -20
The Arizona offense has been plagued all season by an inability to run the football and the inconsistency of QB Jake Plummer. Plummer has thrown 19 picks in only 9 games, against only 7 touchdowns. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals are 2-7 when Plummer starts (both wins were against Philadelphia). With backup QB Dave Brown at the helm, the Cardinals were 4-1. A predictable correlation: Brown threw only six interceptions in his time as a starter.

This week against Atlanta, the Cardinals need to establish the run early in the game to set-up play action for QB Plummer. The Falcons have a talented front seven and this unit will be in Plummer's face all day unless the Cards prove that they can run the ball early.

The running game, aside from buying Plummer a little more time, will also force the Atlanta linebackers to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and open up the underneath routes for Arizona's wide receivers and TE Terry Hardy, who was a favorite target of Plummer earlier in the season. Arizona's receivers need to start holding onto the football -- the team dropped eight balls last week against Buffalo and will need to be sharper this week against the Falcons.

Atlanta's defense has done a valiant job this season, but the inability of the offense to sustain any drives has left the defense susceptible to big plays later in games. The defense's ability to tackle opposing rushers seems to deteriorate considerably as games progress, and depending on whether QB Chris Chandler is in the line-up, this could be a problem again this week against an Arizona team that boasts a huge offensive line.

It is important that Falcon defenders, particularly the front four, don't overpursue against Arizona RB Adrian Murrell. Murrell is a shifty, cutback runner who doesn't hit the holes hard, but waits for daylight and then makes his moves.

RDE Lester Archambeau will be matched up against Arizona LOT Matt Joyce, who is filling in for injured starter L.J. Shelton. Archambeau is a veteran, who should be able to use his experience and a combination of moves to take advantage of Joyce, who will be making only his second start as a tackle. If Archambeau can draw double teams or force the Cardinals to keep a tight end or back out of the play to help block him, it should open things up for his linemates, DT Chuck Smith and RDE Shane Dronett.

Atlanta offense vs. Arizona defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 30
Pass 16
Tot. Yds. 26
Scoring 29
Int's allowed 19
Sacks allowed 50
   
CARDINALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 18
# of Ints. 16
# of Sacks 31
Turnover differential -8
Whether or not QB Chris Chandler plays is a huge factor for the Falcons this weekend. Without Chandler, the team will be forced to go with Tony Graziani, whose play has been average this season at best. Whoever starts will not have an easy task against an Arizona secondary that is quick to the football, and that is quick to capitalize on opposing offenses' mistakes.

The Falcons need to run the football, and the team's best option to do so is RB Winslow Oliver, who has breakaway speed but is undersized at 170 pounds. Oliver's size prevents him from being an every down back, and repeated hits from opposing linebackers make Oliver a threat to turn the football over. He has three fumbles in the last two weeks. Atlanta needs to game-plan to get Oliver the ball in space, where his speed and escape ability make him a more dangerous weapon, so look for the Falcons to throw the ball to Oliver in the flat early.

Whoever starts at QB will be missing a valuable weapon this weekend, as WR Tim Dwight will probably not step on the field again this season. Dwight has deep speed and is one of the few players on the Falcon roster who is capable of stretching a defense. This leaves the team with WR's Jammi German and rookie Eugene Baker, neither of whom is a gamebreaker.

Arizona's defense looked like a different unit without DT Eric Swann in the line-up. The Cardinals had been solid against the run with Swann playing about 40% of the team's downs, but when Swann didn't play last weekend against Buffalo, Arizona's run defense looked downright porous.

Luckily for the Cardinals, they will be facing one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL in Atlanta. The Falcons are averaging just over 71 yards per game on the ground and have a depleted corps of wide receivers, so expect the Cardinals to be aggressive and come at Atlanta QB Chandler with a variety of blitz packages.

The Cardinals have confidence in a secondary anchored by LDC Aeneas Williams and will not hesitate to leave their corners in single coverage to get in Chandler's face. Chandler is much less effective when he is forced out of the pocket and has to throw on the run, so expect to see SS Kwame Lassiter on the line of scrimmage for much of the day.

The Cardinals' defense has been solid for most of the year despite all the team's injuries, aside from a letdown last week against Buffalo. LOLB Rob Fredrickson has been a bright spot playing over the opposing offense's TE, so he should be able to neutralize Atlanta's O.J. Santiago, who has had an awful year to this point.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ARI ATL
Punt return avg. 10 13
Kickoff return avg. 5 29
Opp. punt return avg. 3 1
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 9 25
Time of possession 30 27
Without KR/PR Tim Dwight in the lineup, the Falcons are missing one of their most potent weapons. Winslow Oliver has played poorly filling in for Dwight, so coach Dan Reeves might shake things up this week by allowing LDC Ray Buchanan to take a couple shots as a punt returner. Arizona's kick-off unit committed a grievous error last week when it allowed Henry Jones to return an on-side kick for a touchdown. Special teams coordinator Al Everest needs to have his troops sharp, as special teams play could be the difference in a match-up of two offensively weak football teams.

Key matchups
  • Cardinals WR Rob Moore vs. Falcons DC Ray Buchanan
    Atlanta's Ray Buchanan will apply press man coverage to Rob Moore and can afford to, because of his quickness and fluent backpedal. Moore runs excellent routes and has a significant height advantage over the 5-foot 9-inch Buchanan, he'll use both to his advantage.

  • Falcons FB Bob Christian vs. Cardinals MLB Ronald McKinnon
    The success of the Falcon's running attack is predicated on Christian, and his ability to kick opposing linebackers out of running lanes. McKinnon is a tough assignment for the slow-footed Christian, because of how McKinnon's speed allows him to cover so much ground. Christian will need to know where McKinnon is at all times, locating him before McKinnon can get to the ball carrier.

  • Cardinals OT L.J. Shelton vs. Falcons Lester Archambeau
    Shelton has had an up and down season, in which he is making progress mentally each week by facing different looks. Archambeau will be coming hard at Shelton for all four quarters, Shelton must limit the mental breakdowns on Sunday, because they all we be capitalized on by Archambeau.

    Arizonawill win if...
  • Plummer can develop a rhythm throwing. Plummer is a streaky QB, but early success can turn him on. Plummer has to look to easy targets early, building confidence and eventually putting up big numbers leading to a Cardinal win.

  • Rice & Co. can provide a pass rush. The Falcon QB's have all had trouble dealing with pressure this season. Atlanta's OL is having trouble identifying the blitz and line stunts, so an active front should be able to cause trouble.

  • The WR play is elevated. With the exception of Rob Moore the Cardinal WR's are having mental breakdowns. They can't afford to run wrong routes and drop passes against Atlanta's DB's. If they can play smart football, they'll be able to sit underneath coverage and catch footballs.

    Atlanta will win if...

  • They eliminate Bailey early. Plummer has been experiencing mental woes lately, because he's been throwing into coverage. This is a result of the Cardinals non-existent running game. Taking Bailey out of the contest will allow for another meltdown by Plummer.

  • Tim Dwight can play big, providing he plays. Too often opposing CB's are able to eliminate Mathis because there is no threat from Dwight. If Dwight can attract attention, Mathis will be able to have a big game, because of the balance Dwight will provide.

  • They somehow establish a running game. Arizona can come with quite a pass rush, without a running attack Graziani will be under fire for the better part of the day. Atlanta needs to establish a ground game to prevent this from happening.

    The War Room edge
    The Cardinals are mathematically a part of the playoff picture, but reality says they don't have a shot. Arizona QB Plummer has been inconsistent all season and is also taking too many chances. With Ray Buchanan phasing Rob Moore out of the game, Plummer will turn to Frank Sanders, whose mental lapses have been resulting in dropped passes lately. Mario Bates isn't the answer to the Cardinal running woes, so Plummer will be throwing frequently, and errant throws against the Falcons will lead to turnovers. Atlanta returns home for the first time in two weeks. Last week's injury to QB Danny Kanell has him out for the season, so Graziani will be at the helm for Atlanta. The Falcons will try to spread the Arizona defense thin by using several different formations, but it will be the Falcon defense and their ball-hawking corners who lead the way for Atlanta. Plummer will try to do too much to compensate for the inept Cardinal running attack, turnovers will win this game for Atlanta.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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