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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Giants at Bills


New York offense vs. Buffalo defense
GIANTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 25
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 16
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 34
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 1
Total yds. allowed 1
# of Ints. 9
# of Sacks 29
Turnover differential -4
The New York Giant offense finally exploded last Sunday against the Jets after weeks of frustration. Quarterbacks coach Gary Payton took over play-calling responsibilities from head coach Jim Fassel, and the players seemed to respond to his aggressive style.

Rookie RB Joe Montgomery has bounced back from a knee injury and seems to be the go-to-guy for the New York ground game. He will have his work cut out for him this weekend, however, as he goes up against one of the league's better run defenses.

Key to Montgomery's success will be the play of OC Derek Engler, filling in for starter Brian Williams who injured his left knee against the Jets. Engler needs to neutralize Buffalo LILB Sam Cowart, one of the better run stoppers in the game. Engler must get off the LOS and engage Cowart, who runs down ball carriers all over the field.

The rest of the Giant offensive line also needs to raise its game against a Bills defense that has been able to consistently pressure the passer without exposing its secondary. The Giants need to take advantage of their size and athletic ability at the WR position, and get the ball to Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard in positions where they can run for yards after the catch. Buffalo's secondary does not give up a lot of deep balls, so QB Kerry Collins must be patient and take the underneath stuff when it is available.

The Buffalo defense has had two weeks to prepare for the Giants, and will definitely not take them lightly given the team's offensive explosion last weekend against the Jets. The Giants thrived on the big play last week, and as a result, expect Buffalo head coach Wade Phillips to continue to rush only three or four defenders, dropping the rest of the team into pass coverage.

DEs Bruce Smith and Phil Hansen are having great seasons, and due to the considerable depth along the Bills' defensive line (which goes seven deep) Smith and Hansen are fresh late in games when opposing teams are trying to rally.

Buffalo definitely needs to pressure Collins this week. He appears to be gaining confidence, and has enough athletic ability at WR to create match-up problems for most teams that play man coverage -- particularly a team like the Bills where the corners are at a size disadvantage relative to the Giant receivers.

The Bills will move both Smith and Hansen around in passing situations to get the best match-up. This means Smith will often line-up over Giants LOG Mike Rosenthal, who despite his considerable size, is no match for Smith's speed and power game. Buffalo should play the Giants with a lot of straightforward looks, and force New York to establish a running game by consistently playing at least five players in the secondary.

Buffalo offense vs. New York defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 3
Pass 21
Tot. Yds. 14
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 20
   
GIANTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 7
vs. Pass 13
Total yds. allowed 7
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 26
Turnover differential -7
Buffalo's receiving corps, coming off a bye-week, needs to get healthy against a Giant secondary that is one of the most banged-up units in the league. WR Eric Moulds, Buffalo's big-play WR, is in the position to have a huge game this week, particularly if New York's top healthy corner, Phillipe Sparks, can't go because of a groin injury.

Moulds has the speed to get behind defenses; look for him to open up the underneath routes for WRs Andre Reed and Peerless Price. Both of these guys are effective on short routes and each has the ability to do things after the catch.

The Giants are still effective defending the run despite the rash of injuries in their secondary. For Buffalo to be successful this week, the team has to be able to run the football. Running to the left side of the field behind LOT John Fina and LOG Reuben Brown is the Bills' best bet. Running right will be more difficult, as newcomer at ROT Marcus Spriggs will be matched up against perennial Pro-Bowl LDE Michael Strahan.

The Bills get a huge boost this week with the return of RB Thurman Thomas, who adds an entirely new dimension to the Buffalo offense, particularly coming out of the backfield as a third-down back.

What can the Giants do to slow down their opponents' passing games when their secondary is so banged-up? Things got worse for New York this week when LDC Jason Sehorn went down for the remainder of the season with a broken leg.

Against Buffalo, defensive coordinator John Fox needs to tailor a game plan that maximizes the number of players dropping into coverage, while also generating pressure on Buffalo QB Doug Flutie. That means LDE Strahan needs to get out of his season-long sack slump and dominate Buffalo ROT Spriggs. Spriggs will undoubtedly get help from a RB or from ROG Jamie Nails. Other players on the Giants' front seven, such as ROLB Jesse Armstead, will therefore have to step up and have big games.

MLB Pete Monty will be saddled with the duty of spying on Flutie, making sure that the Bills' mobile QB does not beat the Giants with his scrambling ability. By forcing Monty into this role exclusively, Buffalo forces the Giants to dedicate one less player to protecting the team's porous secondary.

The Giants back-up corners must employ a "bend but don't break" philosophy this week -- playing loose enough to not give-up the deep ball and making fundamental tackles on the balls that are completed underneath.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NY BUF
Punt return avg. 2 8
Kickoff return avg. 13 23
Opp. punt return avg. 27 11
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 13 18
Time of possession 18 5
Both teams have return men who are potential game breakers - the Giants' Tiki Barber and the Bills' Kevin Smith. The teams' have similar kickers in Cary Blanchard and Steve Christie -- accurate guys from inside 40-yards, but questionable leg strength limits their effectiveness from outside of 40. Buffalo is particularly reliant upon Christie, as the team is ranked in the bottom third of the league in red zone effectiveness. This time of year in Buffalo, a reliable kicker who can be effective in bad weather is of paramount importance.

Key matchups
  • Giants WR Amani Toomer vs. Bills DC Thomas Smith
    Toomer had a huge game versus the Jets last weekend and he and QB Kerry Collins seem to be on the same page. Thomas Smith is a good cover corner, but he is only as good as the Bills' pass rush, led by DE Bruce Smith. Toomer is a big rangy receiver and could be especially effective in the red zone.

  • Bills FB Sam Gash vs. Giants MLB Corey Widmer
    Gash is the best blocking fullback in the NFL and the Bills love to run behind him in their inside running game. He will give Widmer all he can handle and more, especially in the red zone.

  • Buffalo pass rush vs. Giants QB Kerry Collins
    Kerry Collins had a solid outing versus the New York Jets because he had time to throw the football, and also because the Giants established a run game. He is a physically gifted QB who can burn the Bills if he has time to throw the football and let his receivers finish their routes, but an effective pass rush could easily force him into bad decisions and turnovers.

    New York Giants will win if...
  • They continue to be creative on offense. Quarterback coach Sean Peyton called the offensive plays last week, and the Giants appeared to play a lot more loose, and the offense appeared to be much more wide-open. They need to continue this trend, especially with a suspect run game. Their defense is good enough, but they need to put more points on the board offensively.

  • They contain QB Doug Flutie. Flutie is most dangerous when he's rolling out of the pocket and creating plays with his feet. The Giants must keep him in the pocket, not let him run the football, and get their hands up to force him to throw over the top.

  • They encourage the Bills to throw the football. If the Bills are smart, they will grind the ball out in the run game versus the Giants defense, but for some strange reason, they seem to want to throw the ball a lot more than they need to. If they abandon the run game, the Giants are in pretty good shape to stop them in the passing game and may be fairly well-equipped to get into an offensive shoot-out with Buffalo.

    Buffalo will win if...

  • Their defense doesn't give up big plays. The Bills must force the Giants to drive the length of the field. Last week New York really destroyed the Jets with big plays, which isn't their usual trademark. If theGiants don't get some quick scoring, they may not be capable of mounting enough offensive drives together to win this one.

  • They stay committed to the run game. Buffalo's best chance for a victory is to run the football behind FB Sam Gash. They are capable of pounding the Giants into submission, and success in the run game will make Doug Flutie even more effective throwing the football. The Bills do not want the Giants to have the luxury of sitting back and playing coverage schemes.

  • QB Doug Flutie can exploit a depleted Giants secondary. Jason Sehorn is gone for the year and the Giants are not very healthy, nor do they have a lot of depth. Look for Buffalo to open up the passing attack with multiple WR sets, which will really test the depth of the Giants' secondary and will also open up the Bills run game.

    The War Room edge
    All of a sudden, everybody is excited about the New York Giants and their new-found offense with QB Kerry Collins at the helm. However, they beat a Jets team that is not very good last Sunday, and they face a well-rested Buffalo Bills team that is ready for the stretch run to the playoffs. The Bills' defense will bring Kerry Collins back to reality, and if the weather is a factor, Buffalo is much more equipped to run the football and control the clock than the Giants. Look for the Bills to grind this one out in a very physical game on both sides of the ball.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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