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Thursday, December 9 War Room: Dolphins at Jets The War Room Miami offense vs. New York defense
All of this points to Miami coming out throwing the ball to win. However, Miami needs to get back to the formula that was winning them football games with Marino out of the lineup. It was no coincidence that Miami went 5-1 with Damon Huard behind center. They were running the ball more, chewing time off the clock and winning the field position battle with excellent defensive play. The Dolphins came away from last weeks' loss to the Colts with a feeling of confidence because they found a lot out about their offensive scheme, and seem to have turned to a three-receiver set as their base formation. The three-receiver set forces defenses to back out of the eight-men in the box look that was giving Miami lots of trouble when running the ball and in pass protection. The Jets are going to look to blitz a lot on Sunday, but they are going to have to do so with a seven-man front. Defensive coordinator Bill Belichick will undoubtedly take a lot out of last weeks' loss against the Giants, as well as the Miami loss to the Colts, when he draws up his defensive scheme. The Jets' secondary was annihilated last week because of the single-man coverage that they played against the Giant's bigger receivers. Marino, throughout his career, has had tremendous success against zone coverage, which means Belichick will play a lot of man/zone coverage. This will feature an aggressive approach by the cornerbacks, pressing the Dolphin receivers at the line of scrimmage. They will be able to bite on a lot of first moves, knowing that they have help from their safeties if they get caught jumping the receivers' first move. This entire scheme means that the Jets are going to play an aggressive front, but will be forced to do so without enough personnel. The Dolphins will find success running the football, but need to avoid a lot of third-and-long situations, where Marino is forced to make something happen. Marino proved last week that he is still capable of throwing the ball with great success, but the team also learned that running the ball successfully equates into victory. New York offense vs. Miami defense
Miami is going to have to game plan similar to the Giants' defensive system of a week ago. The Dolphins were also a bit out of character last week, playing softer in coverage and less aggressive up front. Expect two different game plans this week, as the Dolphins and Jets will look to return to the backbone of their respective offensive and defensive schemes. The Jets need to establish the run, not only to neutralize Miami's speed on defense, but also to limit turnovers and slow down the pace of the game. QB Ray Lucas has done an extraordinary job of taking over this team midway through the season, not throwing an interception in his last 92 attempts, but he is simply not equipped to throw the ball over 30 times a game yet in his young career. The Dolphins realize that the Jets need to run the ball, which means that they will game plan for just that. The Dolphins have been extremely successful defensively, mainly because of their corner play. They are used to matching up man-to-man on the outside and using the other nine defenders to stack the middle. With the benching of CB Terrell Buckley, the team has been forced to a more conservative plan, but if nothing else, the Dolphins learned last week that CB Patrick Surtain can handle himself on an island in coverage. Miami will revert to a more attacking style up front, using more "44" looks to stop the run. When the Jets look to open it up more on offense, the Dolphins have the luxury of brining in Buckley off the bench as the nickel corner. The Jets will struggle to do much offensively against the Dolphins. This game is a must-win for Miami, and the defense knows how important its role is on Sunday. Lucas is still going to create second chances in the passing game and he is blessed with an outstanding wideout unit, but Lucas is not at the level necessary to carry the Jets' team throwing the football. Parcells will avoid getting into a shootout situation as much as possible, but with injuries on the offensive line, and little production in the middle of the field from TE's Eric Green and Fred Baxter, the Jets are going to be put into the compromising situation of having to throw the football on third-and-long too many times for this Dolphin defense not to capitalize. Special teams
The Jets kicking game has been sporadic, with John Hall hitting on 16-of-20 for the season. Tom Tupa continues in his excellence, averaging 45.8-yards per punt. Dwight Stone has shown some flash as the Jets' kickoff return man, averaging 25.3-yards per return with a long of 50-yards. Key matchupsThis is an interesting matchup, featuring age versus speed. Elliot is sadly overmatched against Taylor on the edge, and will have tremendous trouble in pass protection. However, Elliot is a crafty veteran with excellent strength, and should be able to win the battle in the run game.
Against a "34" scheme, the most important matchups seem to always be against the inside linebackers that have to be so versatile for the defense. Mixon and Donnalley are going to play without any one head up, meaning that they will have to be more active in the run game and more aware of the blitz in pass pro. Cox has been playing injured the past couple of weeks and seems to be having a difficult time changing direction and playing with good base. This bodes well for the Dolphin offensive line that will work to get out on the linebacker to seal Cox off.
Marion is the key read for quarterbacks throwing the ball against Miami's defense. Marion is an extremely active free safety who is often left back playing center field. He will make the decision to cheat to one side in help, and the read is usually to the opposite side where the receiver is left in man-to-man coverage. Lucas has been a big boost for the Jets' offense and has created a lot of second chances, but he is still making inexperienced mistakes, and Marion could have some big pays reading the young quarterbacks' eyes. Miami will win if...
New York Jets will win if...
The War Room edge
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