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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Browns at Bengals


Cleveland offense vs. Cincinnati defense
BROWNS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 31
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 31
Scoring 31
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 51
   
BENGALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 19
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 25
# of Ints. 26
# of Sacks 29
Turnover differential -6
Cleveland would desperately like to establish a running game to take some of the pressure off of its rookie quarterback Sunday, but as usual they will struggle in doing so. The Browns are healthy up front, but they simply do not have the horses to generate running lanes and sustain drives.

The Bengals are not stout against the run, giving up an average of 105.9-yards per game on the ground, but they do have an athletic linebacking corps, and the Browns running backs do not have enough flair as a unit to break any runs in the open field.

Cleveland's simple running scheme will meet the Bengal defense at the wrong time of the season. The Bengals switched from a "34" scheme to more four-man fronts recently to help stack against the run and generate more pressure on the quarterback. The revamped alignment, known as the Elephant Package, features a fourth down lineman, usually Kimo von Oelhoffen or Glen Steele, to replace ROLB Adrian Ross. With a bigger body on the line, the defense is stacking better at the line of scrimmage and is creating more of a surge.

QB Tim Couch has been under constant pressure this season, and the Bengals will look to continue that trend. By getting upfield, it forces a disruption in the backfield that throws off the timing of the running attack. Good teams are capable of beating the pressure by catching the defense out of position with screens, misdirection and draws, but the Browns do not have the athletes in the backfield to make plays that would force a defense to play a more honest scheme.

The Browns are going to be forced to the air, and it could be the best idea against a Cincinnati secondary that has had some trouble of its own. The corners, Artrell Hawkins and Rodney Heath are playing better and with more confidence, but they are still giving up too many big plays.

The critical matchup is Hawkins on WR Kevin Johnson. If the Browns are going to get some big plays to stay in the game, it is going to be on this side of the field. Hawkins may have his hands full covering Johnson if he is stuck in single-man coverage. The one advantage Hawkins does have is the fact that the Browns have few other options in their receiving corps and that his front seven should be able to get great pressure on QB Tim Couch. Hawkins is the team's best cover corner, but he will take some false steps in coverage and he has had some trouble this season against receivers with deep speed similar to Johnson's.

Look for the Bengals to roll coverage to Hawkins side, giving him help in the deep third. The Brown's receives are going to have to do a better job of complementing Johnson who will draw a lot more double coverage, which will leave more room for the complementary receivers to work.

Cincinnati offense vs. Cleveland defense
BENGALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 39
   
BROWNS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 31
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 30
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 24
Turnover differential -8
As we have discussed all season, this is a Cincinnati offense with excellent talent at the skill positions, and a unit that is capable of ranking near the top in most offensive categories. Granted, last weeks' performance is asterisked by the fact that it was against a 49ers' defense that is among the worst in the league in just about all statistics, but this offense also showed some signs two weeks ago against a much more formidable Steeler defense.

The biggest turnaround for the Bengal's offense has been the play up front, where the offensive line is finally coming together as a unit, missing less-and-less assignments each week. The running lanes have been there the past couple of weeks and Blake has had time to throw in the pocket.

Blake's best attribute is his mindset. He is a fearless quarterback who will take chances. When given time, Blake has done an excellent job of timing his throws and putting the ball where his big-receivers can go up and make plays. The biggest complaint in this offense has been that the receivers are among the top tandems in the league, but do not get enough touches.

Sunday, the Bengals will look to get vertical against a Browns secondary that is going to have trouble matching up in size. The problem the Browns have is that they are undersized up front as well, and cannot afford to play honest against the run.

Cincinnati has won every time that RB Corey Dillon has run the ball over 22 times in the game. Dillon should have a big day against a defense that is allowing 165.8 yards per game on the ground. Dillon is going to be the biggest key for the Browns to stop. If Dillon gets rolling early on, which he should given the recent breakout of the Bengal's offensive line, Cleveland is going to be forced to desert their secondary by walking up a safety closer to the line of scrimmage. In this case, the Bengal's are going to have a field day working the ball to Darnay Scott and Carl Pickens in the deep third of the field, where the free safety will be forced to pick a side in coverage, leaving one of the two in mismatch man-to-man coverage.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CLE CIN
Punt return avg. 28 9
Kickoff return avg. 24 2
Opp. punt return avg. 20 25
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 9 7
Time of possession 31 20
Doug Pelfrey has been one of the most underused field goal kickers this season, but has landed 17-of-25 attempts with a long of 50-yards. Will Brice is currently the league's worst punter, averaging just 41.3-yards per punt and allowing 36.9% of his punts to be returned. Tremaine Mack has been a huge boost to the kickoff return team, averaging 26.9-yards per return including a 99-yard touchdown.

Chris Gardocki is still the most used punter in the league, averaging 43.9-yards per punt on 87-attempts. Ronnie Powell has shown some flash as a young punt return specialist, averaging 23.3-yards per return with a long of 66-yards. Cleveland's punt coverage team is allowing 11.1-yards per return with a touchdown. The unit has done a poor job of keeping its lanes and tackling down field.

Key matchups
  • Cleveland WR Kevin Johnson vs. Cincinnati CB Artrell Hawkins
    Hawkins is going to have his hands full in this matchup. The one advantage he has is the fact that the Browns have few other options in their receiving corps and that his front seven should be able to get great pressure on QB Tim Couch. Hawkins is the teams best cover corner, but he has had some trouble in single-man coverage this season against receivers with deep speed similar to Johnsons'. Look for the Benglals to roll coverage to Hawkins side, giving him help in the deep third.

  • Cleveland OC Dave Wahlabaugh vs. Cincinnati NT Oliver Gibson
    The Bengals are going to come after the Browns with a heavy blitz package. Wahlabaugh is going to have to handle his head-up assignment against Gibson. Gibson is not much of a sped rusher, but he takes up space and require a double team if Wahlabaugh does not play with good base and leg drive. The Cleveland offensive guards are going to need to be freed up to pick up the blitz of the inside linebackers as well as to get out and block downfield in the run game.

  • Cincinnati FB Cliff Groce vs. Cleveland MLB Wali Rainer
    Rainer has become the teams' top playmaker in the middle of the field against the run, but he is still inexperienced, and has trouble against lead blockers that lock onto him. Groce has the size and ability to become a dominating iso-blocker in this offense, but he has simply not been effective. If the Bengals are to run the ball with any consistency, Groce is going to have to take better angles and kick Rainer out in the middle to spring RB Corey Dillon.

    Cleveland will win if...
  • FB Mark Edwards makes more of an impact in the running game as a lead blocker. The Browns rank last in the league rushing the football, and much of it has to do with the play of FB Mark Edwards. Granted, the offensive line has not created much room to operate, but Edwards has been out of position, slow to make the block and generally ineffective as an isolation blocker all season long. The Bengals have been running a lot more "43" sets to stack up better against the run, which means that Edwards assignment is going to be to get out and chip the middle linebacker that will be waiting in the hole.

  • The receiver corps give the offense more production after the catch. Cleveland has simplified much of its passing game, throwing the ball more underneath in a low-risk approach. The problem Cleveland is having is the fact that their receivers are not making any plays after the catch. The Bengal's secondary has not been tackling well, which means that Cleveland will have a chance to break a couple short passes into big plays. On an offense where everything comes so hard, the Browns could really use some big plays out of their receiving corps.

  • SS Marquez Pope is active. Pope is going to be the most important player on this defense. Cleveland is undersized up front and are outmatched in the secondary, meaning that Pope's role is going to be two fold. Pope is going to have to show excellent recognition of the run/pass, and take no false steps. He needs to make his presence felt in run support up front, and also needs to play an outstanding centerfield, giving his cornerbacks help in the deep third.

    Cincinnati will win if...

  • QB Jeff Blake has time to make his reads in the pocket. Blake is in a zone throwing the football the past couple of weeks, but the biggest difference has been the play up front. The Bengals have been protecting Blake, allowing him to make reads and for his receivers to come out of their routes. The Bengals have an outstanding receiving corps, and Blake has a strong arm. The to creating a successful passing game is going to be the offensive lines ability to pick up the blitz and protect Blake when Cleveland comes after him.

  • Safeties Myron Bell and Cory Hall take away the middle of the field in pass defense. Couch has had some trouble the past few weeks throwing the ball, because defenses have been forcing the rookie to make throws to the outside. Couch has a good, not great arm, and his timing is not there yet with his entire receiving corps. Cincinnati's cornerbacks are playing better, with more confidence, and should be able to hold up outside if the safeties take away Couch's underneath and safety valve routes.

  • The front seven can shut down the run in a soft cover-two defensive scheme. The Browns are only running the ball for 72.6-yards per game, and the Bengals are going to force them to do so in order to move the ball. Expect to see a soft zone in the secondary, taking away the middle of the field and backing off five and six men in coverage when the Couch drops back to throw. The Bengals are not going to get much from their secondary in run support, so it is critical that they are able to stop the run on their own.

    The War Room edge
    The "Battle of Ohio" does not say much for the state's current shape in the NFL. The teams have a combined record of 5-21, and the game gives the teams a chance to fight head-to-head to see who stays out of the cellar. Coming off consecutive wins, the Bengals are playing the best football of their season. Cleveland is going to have a difficult time containing Cincinnati's receiving corps, which will open up bigger running lanes for Corey Dillon late in the game for the Bengals to put the finishing touches on the Browns. Cleveland has made some improvements, and have a bright future with some of their skill positions, but the Bengals are too much for this first-year franchise and even home field advantage will not keep the game close.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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