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Wednesday, November 24
War Room: Packers at 49ers


Green Bay offense vs. San Francisco defense
PACKERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 17
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 24
   
49ERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 24
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 27
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -6
Last week's performance by QB Brett Favre couldn't have come at a better time for the Packers. Much has been made of Favre's injured thumb, but that is beginning to become a non-issue for the three-time MVP.

Green Bay's offensive line did a much better job in pass protection, and the receivers finally started hanging onto his lasers. Favre's 26-for-40, 309-yard performance against Detroit was by far his best of the year. Most importantly, Favre didn't force the ball into coverage and went without an interception for the first time in six games.

The Packers will have a couple of new faces on the offensive line this week. ROG Raleigh McKenzie played well enough against Luther Ellis to warrant a second start, and Mike Wahle will fill in at left tackle for injured Ross Verba.

The Niners continue to get little pressure off the edge, but rookie Chike Okeafor provided a spark last week with his first sack. Wahle allowed only one hurry against the Lions but Okeafor should be able to beat him with a wide rush.

San Francisco DCs Ramos McDonald and Monty Montgomery could be the answer the team has been looking for in the secondary. This duo has the size to matchup physically with Green Bay's receivers, and they did an excellent job of preventing the big play against St. Louis' explosive passing game, holding them to a long reception of just 19 yards. The Packers had great success going deep and drawing pass interference penalties (4 for 99 yards) against the Lions, so look for them to try their luck again on Sunday.

As well as they performed in pass protection, the Packers' offensive line played equally as poor in the run game against Detroit. RB Dorsey Levens ran 23 times for 47 yards, marking the first time in franchise history that a player had rushed that many times without reaching at least 50 yards. Levens is becoming a bit indecisive but that should be expected when the line consistently allows penetration.

Offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis smartly designed a number of short dump-off passes to Levens early in the game in order for Favre to find his rhythm. Levens caught a career-high 10 passes for 99 yards and could have another big receiving day against a Niners defense that has struggled against running backs coming out of the backfield.

Look for the Packers to run a lot of misdirection plays and screen passes when Okeafor is on the field. The rookie's inexperience was noticeable last week on numerous occasions.

San Francisco offense vs. Green Bay defense
49ERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 24
Tot. Yds. 24
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 27
   
PACKERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 27
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 21
# of Ints. 20
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential +3
After directing the team to just 13 points in the past two games, QB Steve Stenstrom is in jeopardy of handing the starting duties back over to Jeff Garcia. Head Coach Steve Mariucci will make his decision late in the week but he appears to be leaning toward Garcia. The duo combined for three interceptions and four fumbles in last week's 23-7 loss to St. Louis.

It's difficult to place too much blame on the quarterbacks considering they had very little time to set up and deliver the ball. Aside from left guard Ray Brown, the rest of the offensive line had trouble picking up stunts and twists, resulting in a season-high seven sacks. Whoever is named the starter on Sunday should get a reprieve against a Packers team that is averaging just two sacks a game.

The Niners could have difficulty getting their receivers the ball this week without TE Greg Clark in the lineup. Look for Green Bay to overplay the outside and dare San Francisco to beat them down the middle.

Offensive coordinator Marty Mohrninweg should look to target DC Mike McKenzie, who had 5 of 8 passes completed on his side for 81 yards against Detroit. Opponents have thrown away from McKenzie all season, opting instead to go after Tyrone Williams, but the rookie is clearly having some confidence problems on the left side.

San Francisco can't afford for its receivers to have another off day like they had against the Rams. Terrell Owens' 120-yard performance was tainted by an inexcusable fumble deep in Rams territory.

The Niners continue to run the football effectively with RB Charlie Garner, who rushed 16 times for 77 yards, including an impressive 30-yard burst. FB Fred Beasley is doing a fine job opening holes for Garner, but he'll be facing an improved Packer run defense.

Green Bay has been gashed for 128.3 yards per game on the ground but better play inside from DTs Santana Dotson and Gilbert Brown helped hold the Lions in check last week. Minus a 51-yard run by Sedrick Irvin, the Pack held the Lions to 59 yards on 22 carries.

A reccurring theme has popped up again for defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas' crew -- poor tackling. FS Darren Sharper continues to take poor angles to the ball, and he missed an easy tackle on Irvin's long run. SS LeRoy Butler, who has been hampered with a broken left thumb, is also having problems bringing people down. If the offensive can spring Garner into the secondary, he should be able to break some long gains.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category GB SF
Punt return avg. 26 31
Kickoff return avg. 31 12
Opp. punt return avg. 17 10
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 31 12
Time of possession 25 23
Both teams' kickers are having excellent seasons, and Ryan Longwell or Wade Richey could easily decide this game. Longwell proved last week that he is capable of handling the swirling winds that he'll face at 3Com Park by going 4-for-4 in blustery Lambeau conditions.

Longwell, who could see double duty this week because of P Louis Aguiar's pulled groin muscle, dropped his only punt last week inside the 20. Packers RS Desmond Howard should return this week but the team is confident Antuan Edwards can handle the job in his absence.

San Francisco's cover units will receive a huge boost this week from the return of ex-Packer Pro Bowler Travis Jervey, who finally is back at full speed after recent ankle surgery.

Key matchups

  • Green Bay DT Santana Dotson vs. San Francisco ROG Jeremy Newberry
    Although there were signs of improvement last week, Dotson has not played well since returning from injury. He'll need to get an inside push to force the QB out of the pocket. Newberry should benefit from Dotson's lingering shoulder problems that limit his pass rush moves.

  • Green Bay LOG Marco Rivera vs. San Francisco RDT Bryant Young
    Rivera hasn't faced Young too much in the past, because he's always been on the right side, but he'll see plenty of him on Sunday. Rivera will need some help from OC Winters if Young's "double moves" become too tough to handle. The Niners are counting on Young despite the strained medial collateral ligament in his right knee.

  • San Francisco deep coverage vs. Green Bay WRs Bradford & Schroeder
    With Antonio Freeman feeling the effects of the concussion he suffered last week, Schroeder and Bradford have to play big for the Packers. San Francisco could be playing without starting safeties Lance Schulters and Tim McDonald, who were both injured against the Rams. The only reserve safety on the Niners' roster is Zach Bronson, forcing DC Pierson Prioleau into a position he hasn't played since college.

    Green Bay will win if...

  • They protect QB Favre. It's that simple. The patchwork offensive line did a tremendous job of keeping people off Favre last week, and the gunslinger responded with his best all-around effort of the season. This should not be a difficult assignment against the Niners' non-existent pass rush. San Francisco's only hope is a dominant effort inside by DT Bryant Young.

  • They get their wide receivers involved early. Favre took what the Lions gave him last week in the first half, but the offense really started to click when he took shots downfield to WRs Bradford and Schroeder. Antonio Freeman is struggling in all facets of the game, but San Francisco's secondary could be just what he needs to get untracked.

  • They tackle better than they did a week ago. Last week, Green Bay reverted back to a problem they encountered earlier in the season -- the inability to bring people down. FS Sharper will be in for a long day if he takes bad angles against Garner, Owens, and Rice.

    San Francisco will win if...

  • They win the turnover battle. Neither team has done a good job of taking care of the football this season, but the Niners cannot afford to be sloppy on Monday night. They can't give Favre a short field to work with, nor can the offense be expected to score many points if the defense doesn't set the table.

  • They are able to get pressure on Favre without blitzing. In last season's regular season contest, Favre hit Freeman with a couple of long strikes when SS Tim McDonald was near the line of scrimmage, and now he has Bradford on the opposite side. The Niners' struggling DCs need help over the top.

  • They go downfield in the passing game. Good things will happen if they test the Packers' secondary. Although Sharper has played better the past few weeks, Green Bay looks soft on the corners. San Francisco needs to get Owens and Rice in single-man matchups.

    The War Room edge
    Green Bay pulled out a huge win last week against Detroit, but they're facing a team that has nothing to lose. The Packers were sharper on offense last week but they were also helped by some horrendous secondary play by Detroit. Green Bay can't afford to let the Niners hang around in this one, because the emotion of this rivalry could help them land the upset. Look for the Niners' defense to put forth its best effort of the season and end the team's six-game losing streak.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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