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Tuesday, November 23
War Room: Bears at Lions


Chicago offense vs. Detroit defense
BEARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 24
Pass 2
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 25
   
LIONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 24
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 32
Turnover differential +5
The Lions stagger into this game a shaken bunch after last Sunday's embarrassment in Green Bay. Detroit's secondary, especially RDC Terry Fair, can't seem to defend a route longer than 15 yards without drawing a pass interference call. The Lions were flagged four times for 99 yards in the second half against the Packers, and they seem destined to have similar problems against the Bears' wide-open passing attack.

Detroit will be forced to play without the services of starting LDC Bryant Westbrook, who pulled a hamstring last week, and FS Mark Carrier (suspension). This will hurt the Lions from a depth standpoint because it forces players in their dime package to cover dangerous rookie WR Marty Booker. Robert Bailey and J.B. Brown filled in nicely for Westbrook early in the season and they must play big again on Sunday.

The Bears have spread the ball around nicely in the passing game, and the return of WR Curtis Conway (4 rec., 24 yds. vs. San Diego) gives the Lions another playmaker to defend. Chicago QB Jim Miller, who has thrown for 779 yards the past two weeks, will again look to WR Marcus Robinson for the big play.

The Bears coaching staff has done a tremendous job scouting its opponents' weaknesses, so look for them to exploit the Robinson-Fair mismatch. The past few weeks, opponents have been double-teaming slot receiver Bobby Engram, which leaves Robinson in man coverage on the outside. Don't look for the Lions to follow that dangerous path. If anything, they will leave Engram in single-coverage and use an extra man to contain Robinson.

The Lions secondary has been exposed the past two weeks due to a lack of pressure up front, and the Bears' offensive line is coming off a solid one-sack performance against the Chargers. The Lions have made a number of personnel changes at RDE without starter Tracy Scroggins in the lineup, but none have produced results. If their front four can't get consistent pressure on Miller it will be another long day for the Lions' secondary.

The Bears will come out looking to throw the ball, but RB Curtis Enis has to at least pose a threat on the ground. The Lions rebounded after a dismal effort against Arizona to hold Green Bay's Dorsey Levens to just 47 yards on 23 carries. With Conway healthy, expect the Bears to use even more multiple-receiver sets than in the past to spread the field and create wider running lanes for Enis.

The Lions are a tough team to run on because of MLB Stephen Boyd's instincts and the athleticism of OLBs Chris Claiborne and Allen Aldridge. If the Bears can hit on a couple of big plays early in the game, it will discourage SS Ron Rice from overplaying the run and thus create better blocking matchups for the offensive line.

Detroit offense vs. Chicago defense
LIONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 15
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 38
   
BEARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 23
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 28
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 29
Turnover differential -4
Detroit coach Bobby Ross has a tough decision on his hands in whether to start Charlie Batch or Gus Frerotte at quarterback. The early word out of Detroit has Frerotte penciled in for the Thanksgiving Day game. Batch's sore thumb has been slow responding to treatment, and the coaching staff doesn't feel he'll get enough practice reps before Thursday to be effective.

Frerotte has played well in Batch's absence, but a couple of poorly thrown balls really cost the Lions in Sunday's loss at Green Bay. His job won't be made any easier this week, because WR Herman Moore's expected return looks bleak. Without Moore, the Lions again will be limited in the number of formations they can implement.

WRs Germaine Crowell, who posted his third consecutive 100-yard game last week, and Johnnie Morton have done an excellent job of adjusting to coverage without Moore in the lineup. Last Sunday, the Packers took away the outside routes and forced them to make plays between the hashes. Despite a couple of drops, this duo made tough grabs over the middle and consistently got good separation from defenders.

The Bears shuffled their secondary before last week's win at San Diego, promoting rookie DC Jerry Azumah into a nickel role over former starter Tom Carter. The change didn't provide the desired results, as Jim Harabaugh completed 29 of 46 passes for 273 yards in a hurry-up gameplan. Look for the Lions to attack the deep part of the field with Crowell whenever he's matched against DC Walt Harris. Harris doesn't have the speed to stay with Crowell, and safeties Chris Hudson and Tony Parrish have been slow to provide help.

Aside from the injuries, Detroit has dropped two consecutive games because of its inability to run the football. The offensive line doesn't appear to be on the same page with the ball carriers, and the lack of cohesion has resulted in consecutive sub-par performances. Take away RB Sedrick Irvin's 51-yard jaunt last week and the Lions have rushed for just 101 yards on 36 carries the past two games.

RB Greg Hill is in jeopardy of losing his job to Irvin if he doesn't start running more decisively. The Bears like to slant their front four and let their linebackers take away the cutback lanes. If the Bears are successful with this strategy early, look for Irvin to get the bulk of the carries, because his shifty running style will be more effective than Hill's straight-line speed.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CHI DET
Punt return avg. 18 3
Kickoff return avg. 20 14
Opp. punt return avg. 18 13
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 5 1
Time of possession 24 11
If this one remains close, Detroit PK Jason Hanson gives the Lions a definitive advantage. Chicago's Chris Boniol hit the game-winner in overtime last week against the Chargers, but a previous miss from 33 yards could have cost his team the game.

Last week, the Packers chose to kick away from Terry Fair, and their strategy backfired, as the Lions often found themselves in great field position. Fair has made little happen in recent weeks and he'll have a tough time on Thursday against the league's top-ranked cover unit.

Ex-Lion and current Bears RS Glyn Milburn will be looking to make an impact in his return trip to the Silverdome. Milburn is currently tied for sixth in the league on punt returns (12.5 avg.) and 12th on kickoff returns (23.4).

Key matchups
  • Detroit DC Terry Fair vs. Chicago WR Marcus Robinson
    With Bryant Westbrook out, Fair must step up his level of play. He looked lost at times in coverage against the Packers and thus drew two costly pass interference calls. Fair hasn't faced Robinson in the past so the advantage is in favor of the receiver.

  • Chicago OLB Rico McDonald vs. Detroit TE David Sloan
    The Lions wide receivers are doing an excellent job of stretching the field and opening up things underneath for Sloan. McDonald must be aware of Sloan on quick-hitters over the middle.

  • Detroit QB Gus Frerotte or Charlie Batch vs. Chicago SS Tony Parrish
    Batch could be rusty after two games on the sideline. His thumb injury could prevent him from throwing the deep ball, which will allow the Bears to use Parrish as their primary blitzer. If Frerotte goes, look for the Lions to attack deep.

    Detroit will win if...
  • They are able to muster a pass rush. It is quite apparent that the Lions miss DE Tracy Scroggins on the right side. Detroit's pass rush has been non-existent the pass two weeks, and it has exposed some shoddy cornerback play. QB Jim Miller is capable of moving his team if he has time in the pocket.

  • The secondary plays with more intelligence. The loss of FS Carrier really hurts this unit. Carrier was the leader that got this secondary aligned in the correct coverage. Last Sunday, Westbrook, Fair, and J.B. Brown all committed pass interference penalties that kept Green Bay scoring drives alive. Chicago's offense will give Detroit's secondary plenty of looks they've never seen before, which will force the Lions to play smarter in coverage. The play of reserve FS Lamar Campbell will be pivotal.

  • They keep the sellout crowd involved. The Silverdome rarely reaches capacity but it's a very difficult place for opponents to play when it does. The Lions traditionally play well on Thanksgiving, and they need to get the crowd behind them early.

    Chicago will win if...

  • They can capitalize on Detroit's shaky secondary. The Lions' pass coverage had been respectable all season until Brett Favre carved them up last week. Chicago has more tools in the passing game than they've had at any point in the past and could make this one a shootout if QB Miller finds a rhythm early. Getting WR Conway back is a huge boost.

  • They can run effectively in the red-zone. Without a true red-zone receiver, the Bears must rely on RB Enis to get the job done inside the 20-yard line. Red-zone defense has been one of Detroit's strengths all season, primarily because they've been tough against the run.

  • DCs Harris and Cousin can take away the outside routes. Detroit's receivers have done an excellent job of working sideline routes the past few weeks, and the Bears can't afford to give up big plays in the passing game. Harris will be the guy the Lions target on Turkey Day.

    The War Room edge
    The Lions are 7-3 in Thanksgiving Day games since 1989 and always seem to get up for this one. The short work week is something the Lions have grown accustomed to over the years, and they normally prepare themselves well. The one downside for Detroit is that they won't have much time to prepare for Chicago's complex offense. Look for the Lions to come out strong and get the 80,000-plus in attendance into the game. People across the state of Michigan will enjoy their turkey and stuffing much more after the Lions win in a shootout.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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