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Monday, November 1
War Room: Seahawks at Packers


Seattle offense vs. Green Bay defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28
Pass 15
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 2
Sacks allowed 19
   
PACKERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 25
vs. Pass 19
Total yds. allowed 24
No. of INTs 15
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential 0
Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren is doing his best with the Seahawks' marginally talented offense and he might have uncovered a new weapon last week in RB Ahman Green. Seattle's sagging run game needed a jolt of speed and Green delivered against the Bills, tearing off three carries for 29 yards. It is becoming apparently clear with each passing week that starter Ricky Watters is unable to carry the load for this offense.

Considering how the Packers have struggled this season against speed backs like Napoleon Kaufman and Warrick Dunn (in the passing game), look for Green to get a few more carries on Monday night. Seattle's much-maligned offensive line played their best game of the season last week but the Seahawk coaching staff has reminded them that the Bills were playing without starting DE Phil Hansen and MLB John Holecek -- two of their three best run defenders.

The Packers rebounded last week after being embarrassed by Denver's Olandis Gary and they'll need another big game from OLBs George Koonce and Brian Williams. Koonce always plays physical but he anticipated better last week than at any point in recent memory.

Look for Seattle to run predominantly to the strong side of the field on Monday because offensive line coach Tom Lovat knows what kind of player RDE Vonnie Holliday is. Although LOT Walter Jones is playing at a higher level than any player on Seattle's line, they can't afford to run at Holliday's side of the field because it's basically a losing proposition. Holliday is so valuable to Emmitt Thomas' defense that he has sat out just 10 plays the entire year.

Seattle recognized that teams were sitting on their flat routes and made some nice adjustments to target the middle of the field in last week's win over Buffalo. QB Jon Kitna came out and hit underutilized TE Christian Fauria with three quick strikes before connecting deep with WR's Derrick Mayes and Sean Dawkins. Between MLB Bernardo Harris and FS Darren Sharper, the Packers don't play very tight coverage up the middle. If they can get their running game on track early, look for Seattle to run a lot of play-action passes to exploit the Packers' seams.

Word out of Green Bay has DT Santana Dotson returning this week after a lengthy stint in the training room, which should help restore the inside pass rush. Replacement Billy Lyon has been solid against the run but neither he nor Gilbert Brown has collapsed the pocket. In fact, the only player that has gotten after the quarterback with any consistency is edge rusher Keith McKenzie. McKenzie normally uses his outstanding speed off the edge to simply run by OTs, but he is beginning to stunt more inside, which sets up SS LeRoy Butler on the blitz.

Green Bay offense vs. Seattle defense
PACKERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 20
Pass 5
Tot. Yds. 8
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 13
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 21
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 23
No. of INTs 13
No. of Sacks 18
Turnover differential 0
Everything looked back to normal for the Packers offense last week -- few dropped passes, proper reads by Favre, better running lanes for Dorsey Levens. The thing the Packers did best was convert in the red-zone. The most underrated aspect of being successful inside the 20 is the ability to run the football. The Packers got much better blocking from their tight ends last week and were able to spring Levens outside on a couple of impressive jaunts. FB William Henderson is beginning to be used just enough to take advantage of teams overplaying Levens. The key to the Packers' run game all season has been the quietly effective play of OC Frank Winters. Against a penetrating tandem like DTs Cortez Kennedy and Sam Adams, Winters must be crafty and get underneath his opponents and let Henderson "clean up the trash".

Over the past few years, offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis campaigned to open up the offense but his ex-boss always overruled his pleas. Now that Lewis doesn't need approval, look for Favre to take his share of shots deep on Monday. The Packers finally have two receivers (Schroeder and Bradford) that can stretch the field and they have both drawn huge pass interference calls in recent weeks.

The Seahawks will likely attack Favre with a blitz-heavy approach so look for Green Bay to counter with a lot of three-receiver sets, which will force Seattle to replace their playmaking LB's with nickel and dime backs. The Chargers went after Favre with five or more rushers on half the downs last week and the Packers line held up well, allowing only two knockdowns the entire game.

Jim Lind's defense, LDE Michael Sinclair in particular, has had trouble putting pressure on the quarterback but the secondary has done a good job of holding coverage longer than usual. Seattle's opportunistic secondary, which got their hands on 15 of 26 incompletions last week, has some guys playing the best football of their careers. The one thing Seattle DB's cannot afford to do on Monday is turn their backs to Favre while they run with receivers. A good amount of Favre's big third-down completions occur when WR Antonio Freeman breaks off his route and comes back to the football in front of an unsuspecting defender.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category SEA GB
Punt return avg. 1 22
Kickoff return avg. 8 24
Opp. punt return avg. 24 18
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 1 24
Time of possession 26 29
The Packers scrapped Desmond Howard last week and went with rookies Basil Mitchell and De'Mond Parker. Both players displayed better speed than Howard, who is also playing too cautious on punt returns. Seattle's return units continue to make a difference, with both KOR Ahman Green and PR Charlie Rogers among the league leaders. Green's 54-yard return on the opening kickoff set the tone for last week's win. Neither Louis Aguiar nor Jeff Feagles are booming their punts but Seattle should win the battle of field position because Feagles has at least shown the ability to place his kicks.

Key matchups
  • Seattle head coach Holmgren vs. Green Bay offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis
    Sherm Lewis finally gets his chance to play chess with his former colleague. Holmgren got the majority of the credit for the Packers' offensive success during his tenure with the club while Lewis was largely unappreciated. No one knows the Packers' personnel like Holmgren.

  • Seattle WRs vs. Green Bay secondary
    The Seahawks don't have many playmakers in this group but they could have some success against the Packers' susceptible secondary. WR Derrick Mayes would like nothing more than to show up his old team in Lambeau.

  • Packers OC Frank Winters vs. Seattle DTs Kennedy & Adams
    Crafty veteran Winters must be able to help his young OG's prevent inside pressure. The Seahawks must get pressure from the interior to compliment the outside rush of DE's Sinclair and Daniels in order to prevent Favre from stepping into his throws.

    Seattle will win if...
  • They can overcome the crowd. The noise at Lambeau always becomes a factor for visiting teams and the crowd will be extra boisterous because of Holmgren's return. If this one stays close, the offense will have a tough time hearing Kitna's cadence.

  • Their opportunistic defense can force two or more turnovers. The Packers have gone into the tank this season when Favre & Co. struggle early. Defensive coordinator Jim Lind and his staff defensed the Packers' personnel every day for many years and they know their tendencies. Seattle shouldn't be caught out of position on Monday.

  • The offensive line protects Kitna. Aside from edge rusher Keith McKenzie, the Packers haven't generated a pass rush for weeks. Defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas stepped up his blitz packages last week, which means the Seahawks must account for SS LeRoy Butler.

    Green Bay will win if...

  • They focus on the task at hand. The Holmgren holdovers have to block out the distractions that will surround the team this week. Favre must guard against getting too geared up early.

  • They get RB Levens on track early. The key to the Packers' offense is not Favre, it's Levens. The Packers passing game feeds off Levens' ability to gain positive yardage early. Seattle's run defense has stiffened the past two weeks so look for the Packers' young linemen to have their hands full.

  • The secondary defends the middle of the field. Holmgren has devised many plays to free receivers over the middle the past few weeks, with ex-Packer Derrick Mayes being the main beneficiary. Green Bay needs a solid game from FS Darren Sharper.

    The War Room edge
    As much as the players on both sides try to block it out, the attention surrounding Mike Holmgren's return will be a distraction. While things got away from them a bit last season, Green Bay players have had time to appreciate what Holmgren did for them as individuals and as a team. Seattle needs to jump out to an early lead and build on it or else Favre will have time to do his thing. The crowd will be behind the home team more so than any regular season game in recent memory. Packers squeeze by their former leader.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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