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Wednesday, October 13
War Room: Seahawks at Chargers


Seattle offense vs. San Diego
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 1
Sacks allowed 15
   
CHARGERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 4
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 10
Turnover differential +5
Coach Mike Holmgren has had two weeks to dissect film and figure out what is wrong with his team's 27th-ranked run offense, although all the time in the world might not be enough to come up with a solution for San Diego's aggressive run defense. The Seahawks are averaging a paltry 74 yards per contest and will run up against a Chargers defense that held Detroit to 37 yards on 24 carries a week ago. The guy the Seahawks must contain is OLB Junior Seau. The rest of San Diego's defense does a tremendous job of funneling plays Seau's way, as the perennial All-Pro always finds a way to make the play.

Seattle FB Reggie Brown, who has yet to play up to expectations, will find the going much easier this week without MLB Eric Hill in the middle. Hill was injured last week against the Lions and will be spelled by Tracy Simien. Simien gets by on his football instincts and is still good enough to fill gaps, although he appeared rusty last week in relief, despite intercepting a Charlie Batch pass on the play following Hill's injury. RB Rickey Watters has run hard all season but his success will depend largely on Brown's ability seal off linebackers and the availability of starting ROG Brian Habib, who had arthroscopic knee surgery last week.

In light of their running woes, look for Seattle to come out throwing and test the Chargers' overachieving secondary. If Seattle can't get anything going on the ground, it will be a long afternoon for QB Jon Kitna. When it became clear last week that the Lions couldn't run the ball, defensive coordinator Joe Pascale used SS Rodney Harrison like a fourth linebacker and his aggressive calls resulted in consistent knockdowns and six sacks. Seattle's offensive line and RBs have done a poor job of picking up the blitz all season because of their unfamiliarity with the new offensive schemes. While Holmgren realizes that blitz pickups are usually the last thing that new players become accustomed to, 15 sacks in four games is unacceptable.

Kitna, who is doing a tremendous job of spreading the ball around, will be facing a banged up Chargers secondary. Kitna hung tough two weeks ago against the Raiders, making some nice improvisational plays, and should have an easier time this week against a secondary that has not yet established its consistency.

Although they welcome the return of Terrance Shaw, the Chargers' 24th ranked pass defense will be without Charles Dimry. Look for the Seahawks to use plenty of motion in order to get Sean Dawkins singled on Dimry's replacement, Jimmy Spencer. Spencer is a solid cover guy but he has struggled against big receivers in the past.

San Diego offense vs. Seattle defense
CHARGERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28
Pass 28
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 7
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 11
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 26
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 10
Turnover differential +5
RB Natrone Means returns to the lineup on Sunday but his presence in the backfield will not make much of a difference if teams continue throwing eight-man fronts his way. Means, who has been slowed by two sprained ankles and a sore knee, is averaging just 2.7 per carry this season with a long of only 15 yards. Coach Mike Riley envisioned a low-risk, ball-control attack when he put this team together in the off-season, but a couple injuries on the line and an ineffective passing game have changed those plans.

Seattle's defense is starting to adjust to their new gap-control style of play and it showed in the second half against Oakland. It's hard to imagine the Chargers doing much on the ground against the Seahawks if they could muster just 64 yards against the Lions. The big-play man thus far for Seattle has been OLB Darrin Smith, who lines up all over the field and will be an elusive target for the Chargers' guards to block.

San Diego will most likely start Erik Kramer for the second week in a row after he led the team to an important road win against the Lions without Means in the backfield. Kramer only pieced together one scoring drive last week, but he did a better job of incorporating different people into the passing game. Although they are still ranked 28th in the league in pass offense, the combination of former Bears teammates Kramer and Chris Penn is reason for Chargers fans to be optimistic. Penn was unspectacular last week but he did consistently use his size to dominate Lions DC Terry Fair.

The only hope the Chargers have of moving the ball through the air is if they can establish a ground game with Means. If that is accomplished, which it wasn't last week, it will be easier for playmaking TE Freddie Jones to get open on play-action.

Seattle is among the NFL leaders with seven interceptions and they are getting solid play from both their nickel and dime packages. Look for Seattle go after Kramer with a variety of blitzes out of their new 3-4 pass defense alignment. With Cortez Kennedy playing two-gap technique over OC Roman Fortin, the Seahawks should have a field day sending guys straight up the middle.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category SEA SD
Punt return avg. 1 21
Kickoff return avg. 21 31
Opp. punt return avg. 26 23
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 24 21
Time of possession 26 17
Seattle Coach Pete Rodriquez threatened some jobs after a poor start and the team has responded well, particularly the return teams. Though rookie PR Charlie Rogers is seeing things well, credit must be given to job done up front. Rogers will face a confident group of San Diego cover men, who held Detroit's explosive KOR Terry Fair to a long of just 28 yards last week. The kicking game is a virtual deadlock, with Seattle PK Todd Peterson connecting on 8-of-10 and San Diego's John Carney, who missed is only try in eight attempts last week.

Key matchups
  • Seattle OL vs. San Diego OLB Junior Seau
    Seau disruptive style of play will cause plenty of problems for Kitna is he doesn't get protection. The Seahawks must find an answer for Seau, who dominated the Lions all afternoon last Sunday.

  • San Diego QB Erik Kramer vs. Seattle DCs Williams & Springs
    Kramer found a way to get his wide receivers involved last week but the Seahawks boast a much more formidable duo than the Lions. Seattle likes to gamble on defense and Kramer must hit a couple of deep balls to prevent the front seven from gearing up for the run.

  • Seattle MLB Anthony Simmons vs. San Diego run game
    The Chargers averaged less than three yards per carry without RB Natrone Means last week and that won't get it done against Seattle's active linebacking corps.

    Seattle will win if...
  • RB Ricky Watters can do enough on the ground and in the short passing game to prevent the Chargers from teeing off on Kitna. The Seahawks defeated the Raiders two weeks ago because Watters kept the Raiders on their heels. Kitna is still learning the system but he can make all the throws against an honest defense.

  • The defense eliminates the big play from the Chargers' passing game. Seattle cannot afford to allow the San Diego's marginal offense to score easy points.

  • They dictate the tempo of the game. Seattle wants nothing more than to get the Chargers into a shoot-out because the Chargers cannot win a high-scoring game.

    San Diego will win if...

  • The front seven continues to apply pressure. The Chargers rang up six sacks last week and that total could have been much higher if they weren't facing a mobile quarterback like Charlie Batch.

  • They can win the field position battle. Mike Riley's offense simply doesn't have the personnel to string together multiple long scoring drives. This team lives and dies with its defense.

  • They can convert on third down. QB Kramer made a lot of nice throws last week and he must do the same this week in order to keep Seattle's offense on the sideline.

    The War Room edge
    San Diego is winning ugly but they are doing just enough to get by. They run into a Seattle team that has rebounded well after a disappointing opener. Instead of preparing for an opponent, Coach Mike Holmgren's club used the bye week to work on its timing offensively, which will be apparent on Sunday. Kitna beat a solid Raiders defense two weeks ago and the confidence gained from that victory will carry over against the Chargers.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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