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Friday, September 24
War Room: Colts at Chargers


Colts offense vs. Chargers defense
COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 13
Pass 8
Tot. Yds. 8
Scoring 8
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 29
   
CHARGER DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 3
Ints. 13
Sacks 12
Turnover differential -3
The Colts have proven capable of scoring in bunches, but the challenge for this young offense is to keep the level of play up for all four quarters. Edgerrin James has established himself as a prominent NFL running back that will carry the load for the Colts throughout the season. This week will be a test of wit for James and the run game.

The Chargers have made a reputation as being a physical and for the most part a dominant defense, especially against the run. San Diego's front four does an excellent job getting up field and disrupting opponent's backfields, but perhaps the most important aspect that goes unnoticed on this unit is the play of OLB Lewis Bush. Bush takes on a lot of the garbage and protects Junior Seau from lead blockers and pulling interior lineman.

Adding to the problems, when trying to run on the Chargers, is SS Mrvin Harrison. Harrison is virtually another linebacker that can cover tight ends and running backs when called upon. With eight men in the box against a team that loves to play upfield and gang-tackle, Indianapolis best be prepared with a run game to counter the zone blitz.

Peyton Manning has control of this offense and continues to improve with every start. He sees the field well, can pick up the blitz and can make all the throws. His quick maturation to the NFL style and the emergence of James as the team's premier back has defensive coordinators beginning to question how to contain this balanced attack.

The buzz around Indianapolis when Marshall Faulk left was that James would be unable to match his production as a receiver out of the backfield. That's absolutely correct, but not because James is incapable but because he doesn't have to match Faulk's production. Last season, the Colts were without receivers Marvin Harrison and E.G. Green for most of the season, which forced Faulk to help out in the passing game. Also, the team was concerned with its rookie quarterbacks ability to throw the ball downfield and sit in the pocket and take shots, so offensive coordinator Tom Mora simplified the passing game. Now with a healthy receiving corps and a year under Manning's belt, the passing game doesn't need to rely on its backs to make plays when it can be more effective throwing the ball down the field.

San Diego will face its first real challenge of the year defensively when Indianapolis comes into town. The Chargers realize the importance of putting pressure on Manning, so they will continue to use Norman Hand and Jamal Williams on passing downs. The Colts have not given up a sack in the first two games, so look for the Chargers to see how the sophomore reacts to more pressure.

The Charger's aggressive approach on defense will create a lot of interesting matchups in the secondary and put pressure on safeties Marvin Harrison and Michael Dumas to cover ground in the deep third. Corners Charles Dimry and Terrence Shaw are solid matchup corners, but will have their hands full with Harrison and Green if they try to match up in single-man coverage.

Chargers offense vs. Colts defense
CHARGERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 20
Pass 20
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 2
Int's allowed 26
Sacks allowed 22
   
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 5
vs. Pass 27
Total yds. allowed 24
Ints. 13
Sacks 12
Turnover differential -3
There are a lot of keys to the Charger offense, but scoring a ton of points is not one of them. San Diego is a defense-oriented team, and the offense understands that and knows its role in the equation. The reason the Chargers were so successful in the opener is because the offense did not turn the ball over and ate up more than 38 minutes of clock. Natrone Means did not run for 100-plus yards, but gave the offense the tough yards when needed and pounded away at the Bengal Defense so to wear them down and set up the playaction for QB Jim Harbaugh.

The Colts will cause more problems for the Chargers with speed off the edge and better cornerback play, which will allow the defense to use more bodies in run support. San Diego realizes that the key to Sunday's home opener is to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning & Co.'s hands by controlling the clock with a steady run game. In order to do so, the offensive line is going to have to control the line of scrimmage and force Colts linebackers to make plays two and three yards behind the front. Natrone Means will pound the ball away and wear down the Colts front seven, but he's not agile or quick enough to create his own running room so the Colts are going to be able to break contain without the fear of Means winning the race to the corner.

The Chargers will work their passing attack off the run game with play action and roll-outs to try to catch the Colt defensive ends, Chad Bratzke and Shaun King, overpursuing and out of position. QB Jim Harbaugh is most effective when he's outside the pocket and throwing underneath to his running backs and tight ends. Patriot QB Drew Bledsoe exploited the Colts' ineffective underneath coverage last week. Tight ends Rod Rutledge and Ben Coates, and running backs Tony Carter, Terry Allen, Lamont Warren and Kevin Faulk combined for 13 receptions for 90 yards and three TDs.

Because there is no real mismatch to exploit in the Colt secondary, the Chargers passing attack will be limited to mostly short and intermediate routes. Ideally for San Diego, the passing game will be as low-risk as the run game and pick up short chunks of yardage when needed to sustain the drive. The Colts challenge will be to break up the monotony of the offense and force the Chargers into third and long situations. Harbaugh is a marginal threat to throw downfield and the Colts feel that the best answer to the Charger offense will be to stack it in on first and second down, trying to stuff the run, and on third downs force Harbaugh to make the throws versus their nickel package.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category IND SD
Punt return avg. 4 12
Kickoff return avg. 24 20
Opp. punt return avg. 23 15
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 12 28
Time of possession 8 2
The biggest question mark facing the Chargers gave them some reason for encouragement. The special teams still gave up way too many yards on the returns, but they also forced and subsequently recovered two fumbles on kickoffs. There is some reason for hope here, something that was rarely seen in the preseason. John Carney was on the mark on all four of his attempts and PK Darren Bennett nailed a 60-yard punt, finishing with an average of 47.0 yards per punt.

Punter Hunter Smith averaged just 39.7 yards per punt on Sunday but landed two inside the 20, pinning the Patriots during important moments of the game. The return game was solid, but not real impressive. Terrence Wilkins averaged over 20 yards per punt return and came close to breaking a couple.

Key matchups

  • Indianapolis OT Tarik Glenn vs. San Diego RDE Raylee Johnson
    Glenn has successfully eliminated two the AFC's top pass rushers (Bruce Smith and Willie McGinest) in his first two games, and will line up against Johnson, who is a gifted player but needs to play with more consistency if he is to make an impact vs. the Colts.

  • San Diego OTs Jon Jackson and Vaughn Parker vs. Indianapolis DEs Chad Bratzke and Shawn King
    This is a marquee matchup between two units that are off to excellent starts. The game may be won in this matchup, because if Harbaugh does not have time to throw or room to roll out off the playaction, the Chargers could be in for a long day offensively.

  • Indianapolis WRs E.G. Green and Rodney Harrison vs. San Diego CBs Michael Dumas and Charles Dimry
    The Colts receivers are out of the gate quick this season and look to pick on one of the league's slower corner units. If the Colts win this matchup and are able to spread the Charger defense, it neutralizes the aggressive front seven and should open up some run lanes for rookie RB Edgerrin James.

    Indianapolis will win if...
  • The offense can spread the field to neutralize San Diego's aggressive defensive front seven.

  • Defensively, the Colts can stack eight men in the box and force QB Jim Harbaugh to beat them by throwing the ball from the pocket.

  • The Colts offense can keep balance by passing the football to set up the run. Against a tough Charger front seven, the challenge will be to establish enough running game to keep the defense honest and give Manning some time to make reads in the pocket.

    San Diego will win if...

  • The Chargers' offensive tackles can give Jim Harbaugh protection so he has time to step up in the pocket and find his receiver. The Colts have had excellent success rushing the opposing passer off the edge, where free agent acquisitions Shawn King and Chad Bratzke have been brilliant.

  • The defensive front seven of the Chargers can contain RB Edgerrin James and force Peyton Manning to throw the football with little protection or running game to rely on.

  • The Chargers can continue to win the turnover battle (plus-5 against the Bengals) by playing an aggressive style of football defensively and on special teams, and playing very conservative on offense to eliminate mistakes.

    The War Room edge
    Indianapolis is coming off a gut-wrenching loss in the final seconds of last week's game to AFC rival New England. The Chargers, on the other hand, are coming off a convincing 34-7 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Sunday's matchup features two teams that are playing good football, especially on defense, and will look to attack each other on defense and force the opponent to beat them in the air. The Colts are an up-and-coming team in the AFC and should be able to used a balanced attack to handle San Diego at home in a low-scoring affair.

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