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Friday, September 24 War Room: Bengals at Panthers The War Room Cincinnati offense vs. Carolina defense
QB Jeff Blake & Co. jumped out to an early 7-0 lead but then did everything in their power to lose the game. The Bengals' offense turned the ball over five times, including four fumbles, and kept possession of the ball for only 21:30, leaving their defense on the field for an exhaustive period of time. The majority of Cincinnati's troubles are fundamental mistakes that should be correctable if offensive coordinator Ken Anderson begins to instill some discipline in his unit. An offense cannot afford to have botched handoffs and blown blitz pickup assignments in the second week of the regular season. The Panthers' run defense has been exposed in the first two games, so look for Cincy to get RB Corey Dillon untracked early. Going up against arguably the best run defense in the league a week ago, Dillon was held to just 37 yards on 12 carries, but he should find some room behind LOT Rod Jones and ex-Jet LOG Matt O'Dwyer. The right side of Carolina's front four has been suspect thus far, in part due to RDT Sean Gilbert's sore ribs, failing at the point of attack on Jags RB James Stewart's 44-yard touchdown run. The Bengals should get a boost in the run game this week when starting FB Brian Milne returns to the lineup. Milne will provide Dillon with better running room than he had last week against the Chargers. The Bengals need to control the clock this week and will run plenty of off-tackle plays behind Milne to do so. QB Jeff Blake left last Sunday's game with a shoulder in jury and will be replaced this week by rookie Akili Smith. Last week, Blake was sharp on the team's opening 66-yard touchdown drive, going 3-for-3 for 40 yards, but his effectiveness waned as the game progressed. Although he played admirably despite last week's circumstances, Smith is not ready to assume the reigns of this offense. Smith's prolonged contract holdout will now come back to haunt him and his team. Due to his unfamiliarity with the system and lack of reps in practice, the Bengals will be forced to eliminate about half of their playbook on Sunday, which puts an even greater burden on the running game. After a couple of full weeks back with the team, WR Carl Pickens should be over the effects of missing training camp, which should help Smith. The key again for Carolina will be the play of CBs Eric Davis and Doug Evans. After giving up a huge play in Week 1 to the Saints' Keith Poole, Evans responded well last week against the prolific Jaguar passing game. Although WR Jimmy Smith caught 10 passes last Sunday, the Panthers defense did an outstanding job of keeping plays in front of them. In fact, Carolina only gave up two completions over 15 yards. Expect the Bengals to try get Smith out of the pocket as much as possible in order for him to make plays with his athleticism. Smith will test the perimeter early in hopes of hitting on a big play, which will force second-year SS Mike Minter, who had eight tackles a week ago, to play honest run defense.
Carolina offense vs. Cincinnati defense
Carolina is running the ball only 38 percent of its offensive downs, which is an extremely low number considering they have not had to play from behind in either of the first two contests. Look for RBs Tim Biakabutuka, who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry on the season, to continue sharing the workload with Fred Lane. The biggest area of improvement from last season has been the run blocking ability of the offensive line. New position coach Tony Wise has his unit playing smart, sound football, but they will be tested by an underrated Cincinnati run defense. In two games, the Bengals have held Tennessee's Eddie George to 3.5 yards and San Diego's Natrone Means to 2.9 yards per carry respectively. ILB Brian Simmons, who had 15 tackles a week ago, is surprisingly outplaying fellow second-year man Takeo Spikes. The Panthers' passing game is again in good hands with Steve Buerlein, but he has had very little time to sit in the pocket and make his reads. Buerlein has completed over 55 percent of his passes and has thrown only two interceptions, despite being sacked 11 times. While they have improved in the run game, Carolina's offensive line is really struggling, especially LOT Clarence Jones. Fortunately for the Panthers, Cincinnati does not have a true pass rush threat on the right side to test Jones. If RDE Jevon Langford struggles to create pressure early, look for the Bengals to send OLBs Reinard Wilson and Adrian Ross off the edge, putting pressure on Biakabutuka and Lane to recognize and pick up the blitz. With an accurate passer like Buerlein, the Panthers can afford to be patient offensively but they will surely look to expose the Bengals' suspect secondary-namely rookie LDC Rodney Heath, who will be making only his second start. San Diego had success going to Michael Ricks last week and Carolina's Mushin Muhammad should cause similar problems with his height.
Special teams
Both Doug Pelfrey (Cincinnati) and John Kasay (Carolina) are solid veteran PKs but neither has been tested this season. A huge surprise for the Bengals has been the punting of free agent signee Will Brice, who is averaging over 45 yards per attempt. Keep an eye on Cincinnati RS Damon Griffin, who starred with the 49ers in the pre-season. Griffin had an up-and-down performance last week against San Diego, taking one kick back for a 96-yard score and fumbling another that led directly to a San Diego field goal.
Key matchups The Panthers have been effective running the ball, but they are not moving the chains in critical situations. Cincy's young 'backers are getting much better at shedding lead blocks, which means Floyd must be on top of his game. Muhammad is emerging as Buerlein's "go-to" receiver, and he is now mature enough to take advantage of young corners like Heath. Cincy's rookie corner had trouble with Michael Ricks' size last week, and Muhammad will pose similar problems. This is definitely much sooner than Bruce Coslet would have liked to play his rookie. Panthers defensive coordinator John Marshall will give Smith plenty of looks up front in order to rattle the rookie.
Cincinnati will win if...
Carolina will win if...
The War Room edge
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