Wednesday, January 19 Bucs need perfect 10 By Tom Oates Special to ESPN.com

The game has been held up to the light, put under the microscope and dissected like a lab animal all week.

	Warren Sapp and the Bucs defense face a huge challenge in St. Louis.

Still, no one has figured out a way for the Buccaneers to beat the Rams in Sunday's NFC Championship Game at the Trans World Dome in St. Louis.

No matter how hard anyone tries, they can't come up with any valid reasons why the Bucs, a defense-first team for whom an offensive explosion is 17 points in a game, can beat the quick-strike Rams, who usually have 17 points by the first television commercial.

Las Vegas has already spotted the Bucs a couple of touchdowns, making this the most one-sided matchup since David Letterman had Cher as a guest on his show. Virtually everyone thinks the Rams will scorch the Bucs and leave them for dead on their artificial turf, where nine victims have already been buried by an average score of 37-13.

And don't bring up the Falcons' upset of the equally high-powered Vikings in last year's NFC title game. Sure, the Vikings were favored by a bunch, but the Falcons brought an offense with them to the Twin Cities. The Bucs don't have that luxury.

Sunday's game will match contrasting styles, with the Rams' fast-break offense going up against perhaps the best defense in the league. Last week's divisional playoff results offered a perfect illustration of what these teams are all about.

The Buccaneers (12-5) fell behind the Redskins, 13-0, but limited Washington to 26 yards on 27 second-half plays, forced two turnovers and turned both into touchdowns for a 14-13 victory.

The Rams (14-3) rolled up 446 yards and scored 35 consecutive points in the second half to bury the Vikings. The score ended up 49-37, but it was 49-17 midway though the fourth quarter.

"I don't think we'll be able to win an 80-point game," Bucs coach Tony Dungy said.

The prevailing theory in the NFL these days is that good offense will beat good defense in the playoffs. A glance at the season-long numbers indicates the enormity of the Bucs' task.

The Rams have scored 27 or more points in 15 of their 17 games. They average 34, with a season-low of 21.

The Bucs have scored more than 21 points only five times in their 17 games. They average 17, with a season-high of 31.

Given that, it is virtually impossible to picture the Bucs' 28th-ranked offense scoring more than 17 points against the Rams' sixth-ranked defense. It is equally difficult to picture the Rams' top-ranked offense scoring less than 24 points against the Bucs' third-ranked defense.

Put those two together and the best you can come up with is a seven-point Bucs loss. That's why no one outside of their immediate families thinks the Bucs have a chance to be in Atlanta for Super Bowl XXXIV next week.

"We're going to have to play a near-perfect game," Dungy said, "but it's nothing we haven't been faced with before."

What follows is a list of things the Bucs must do to play a near-perfect game, which might or might not be enough to upset the Rams:

1. Keep the game close.
The Bucs are comfortable in close games, the Rams are not. Only three of the Rams' 17 games have been decided by 12 points or less, and they've lost all three. Nine of the Bucs' 17 games have been decided by seven points or less, and they have a 6-3 record in those contests.

If the Bucs can keep it close until the fourth quarter, the Rams might panic like the Vikings did a year ago.

2. Don't fall victim early to the lethal combination of the Rams' exceptional speed, the fast artificial surface and the noisy crowd.
In recent years, the Bucs have routinely played against explosive offenses such as Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, San Francisco and Washington. They've also played regularly in domes at Minnesota and Detroit.

If the Bucs can withstand the first wave or two of the Rams' attack -- remember the 77-yard, Kurt Warner-to-Isaac Bruce touchdown pass on the first play against the Vikings last week? -- they might be able to stay within reach until the second half.

3. Stick to the game plan.
The Bucs go into every game with the same approach. They start out conservatively on offense, let their defense take control and then try to win the game in the fourth quarter. The Bucs will be tempted to go up top by the Rams' vulnerable secondary, but with a rookie quarterback and pedestrian receivers, that would be a mistake.

If the Bucs deviate from their style and try to match scores with the Rams, John Madden and Pat Summerall will be reduced to telling old war stories by halftime.

4. Win the turnover battle.
The Rams' only offensive weakness is a propensity to turn the ball over. In their 14 wins this season, they have 37 takeaways and 22 giveaways. In their three losses, they have two takeaways and 12 giveaways.

If the Bucs force the Rams into turnovers, it will have the dual effect of helping their offense. In their last three games, the Bucs have forced eight turnovers that have turned into scores.

5. Let the defense do the work.
Tampa Bay's defense has a string of successes almost as impressive as the Rams offense. The Bucs held the Redskins' second-ranked offense to 157 yards and no touchdowns last week. The Vikings' third-ranked offense scored only 38 points on them in two games. The Bears' eighth-ranked offense didn't score a touchdown in eight quarters.

The Rams offense has played against only three defenses that ranked in the upper half of the league. If anyone can stop them, it is the Bucs, who have the fastest defense in the league.

6. Try to disrupt the Rams' timing on offense.
With coordinator Monte Kiffin's elaborate stunts and the front four of Chidi Ahanotu, Brad Culpepper, Warren Sapp and Steve White, not to mention reserves Anthony McFarland and Marcus Jones, the Bucs defense can be very disruptive.

If Sapp and friends can get some pressure on Warner early and force the St. Louis offense off the field a couple of times, they could erode some of the Rams' incredible confidence.

7. Don't let wide receivers Bruce, Torry Holt and Az-Zahir Hakim get behind them.
The Bucs traditionally play a two-deep zone designed to keep speedy wide receivers in front of them. The Rams boast that all of their receivers can't be covered at once, but the Bucs have the secondary depth to match up with the Rams' three- and four-receiver sets.

If Tampa Bay's front seven can control the run and its fast linebackers can cover Rams running back Marshall Faulk on pass routes, it will free up the safeties to help out on the receivers deep.

8. Run the ball between the tackles.
The Bucs are a running team, but they're not a particularly good running team. Their average of 3.5 yards per carry ranks in the bottom third of the league. Now, for the really bad news: The Rams were No. 1 in the NFL against the rush, allowing only 74.3 yards per game.

If the Bucs can make poke some holes in the Rams' quick but small front seven for 240-pound running back Mike Alstott, they can control the ball and keep it out of the hands of Warner and the explosive Rams offense.

9. Get Shaun King untracked early.
King, the Bucs' unflappable rookie quarterback, is 5-1 as a starter, but he has had to engineer second-half comebacks in all five wins. Some of that is due to his erratic play early, some is the result of the Bucs' conservative play-calling. Against the Redskins, King struggled early but was almost perfect in the fourth quarter.

If the Bucs can find a way to get King going in the first half, they could reach the 20s on the scoreboard. A hint: Against the Redskins, King didn't get going until he started throwing to Warrick Dunn out of the backfield.

10. Make it a kicking duel.
Rookie kicker Martin Gramatica connected on 27 of 32 field-goal attempts for the Bucs, with a long of 53. Rams kicker Jeff Wilkins has tendinitis in his plant leg and might not be available, leaving the job to 43-year-old Nick Lowery, who hasn't kicked it the league since 1996.

If all Lowery has to do is kick extra points, the Rams will be OK. But if it comes down to a field-goal battle, the Bucs have the edge, even if Wilkins is healthy.

There you have it, 10 reasons why the Bucs can beat the Rams.

Unfortunately, there are 10 times that many reasons why the Rams will beat the Bucs.

Green left red-faced
The ridiculous ease with which the Rams cruised through the Vikings defense for 49 points in their divisional-round playoff loss last week has again opened up Minnesota coach Dennis Green to criticism.

During the Vikings' magical 1998 season, Green persuaded owner Red McCombs to give him complete control over the team's personnel. Green then took that control and virtually assured the Vikings wouldn't repeat their 15-1 record.

Most of the damage was done in the April draft. Green had the 11th and 29th picks in the first round, which could have been used for much-needed defensive help. Instead, the Vikings got no contribution from the two players they drafted. That's no contribution as in none, zero, zilch.

With the 11th pick, Green chose Daunte Culpepper, a quarterback of the future, over defensive end Jevon Kearse. Culpepper carried a clipboard all season, while Kearse had 14½ sacks and became one of the NFL's dominant pass rushers with the Titans, who, incidentally, are in the AFC Championship Game.

With the 29th pick, Green took defensive end Dimitrius Underwood, a troubled player who participated in one practice with the Vikings before leaving the team. Underwood is now out of football.

Meanwhile, it sure looked like the Vikings could have used Kearse to rattle Rams quarterback Kurt Warner on Sunday. And a cornerback such as the Packers' Mike McKenzie or the Rams' Dre Bly, both taken in later rounds, might have been able to stay within shouting distance of the Rams' Isaac Bruce.

Green forgot a fundamental rule of the modern NFL in last year's draft: With the salary cap and free agency, the window of opportunity to win a Super Bowl is only two or three years for any particular team. Because Green drafted for the future instead of the present, the Vikings' window now appears closed.

Thick 'Skins
It probably won't happen, but the Redskins, a team desperate for defensive playmakers, could land two in this year's draft.

Thanks to a lovely parting gift from fired general manager Charley Casserly, the Redskins have the second, 12th and 24th picks in the first round of this year's draft. That gives them lots of flexibility, and they're looking to use that to their advantage.

The 49ers have the third pick in the draft, but appear willing to move it. They are so strapped under the salary cap that they probably wouldn't be able to pay the large signing bonus that will go to whoever is picked third overall.

In what could be a marriage of convenience for both teams, there have been rumors the 49ers will trade the third pick to the Redskins for the 12th and 24th picks. Based on similar deals made in the past two years, the 49ers will probably hold out for more than that, but in the end their hand might be forced.

With the second and third picks, the Redskins would land two of the top three players in the draft. If the Browns take Florida State wide receiver Peter Warrick, as expected, that would leave the Redskins with the Penn State tandem of linebacker Lavar Arrington and defensive end Courtney Brown. In a matter of 15 minutes, the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL would get a much-needed transfusion of youth, speed and playmaking ability.

Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes a weekly NFC column that appears every Thursday during the regular season.