Thursday, December 2 Colts breaking free By Mark Cannizzaro Special to ESPN.com

Few people have a better perspective on the AFC East landscape than Jets coach Bill Parcells.

	Peyton Manning and the Colts will own a two-game lead in the AFC East if they win Sunday in Miami.

And so, when the question was posed to Parcells on Wednesday about how he believes the top of his division will play out in the next five weeks, Parcells warned that the Indianapolis Colts could be running away without looking in the rear-view mirror.

The surging Colts (9-2) play the stumbling Dolphins (8-3) on Sunday in Miami in the most pivotal game on the AFC schedule yet this season.

A Colts' victory, and they'll hold a two-game lead in the division with four weeks remaining.

A Dolphins' win, and the division will be wide-open. The Colts would be tied with the Dolphins, but Miami would own the tiebreaker by sweeping the season series.

"Oh, if the Colts win this game, they're definitely pulling away," Parcells predicted. "They'd have a two-game lead with four to go. That would be a pretty good lead. I think Buffalo is very much in it as well, because they've beaten Miami twice, and they have a chance to get even with Indianapolis (in the regular-season finale)."

Whatever happens, it figures to be a wild ride, beginning with this weekend.

Miami and Indianapolis enter this game with significantly differing mindsets and psyches.

The Colts have won seven games in a row, and give or take a play or two, could legitimately be 11-0 right now. Remember, they blew a huge lead to the Patriots in Week 2 and lost to the Dolphins on a controversial call involving an apparent Dan Marino fumble in Week 5.

And speaking of Marino, Miami's quarterback situation is definitely in question.

Marino, coming off a long layoff because of arm and neck problems, was as miserable as he has ever been in the Dolphins' 20-0 loss at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. He threw five interceptions and finished the game with the worst one-game quarterback rating (17.8) of his career in games in which he has throw 20 or more passes.

Marino conceded to Miami reporters on Wednesday that his arm doesn't feel as good as it did earlier in the season and that the pain "feels like a toothache."

The Dolphins are clinging to the hope that one trend will take over as it has throughout Marino's Hall of Fame career. Whenever Marino is coming off a poor personal performance and is facing pressure situations, he responds with his best games.

Case and point earlier this year: After a 22-for-44 performance against Buffalo for 251 yards, two interceptions and a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, Marino was railed publicly by Jimmy Johnson, who for the first time openly threatened to bench him.

What did Marino do? He responded against the Colts with a 25-for-38 performance for 393 yards and two TDs to beat Indianapolis.

Every day in Miami, there is a new twist on the Marino story.

"I think it's crap, really," Miami receiver Tony Martin said. "The guy still can throw it. The guy has a lot of zip on his balls. He can still get it there. I think it's really unfair for somebody to say he has nothing left on his arm. He has to get back to feeling comfortable, but his arm strength is there."

Even Johnson admits, "I watch him every day in practice, and I've watched him every day for the past four years. I don't see any difference in arm strength."

The Colts and their rising-star quarterback, Peyton Manning, are having no problems with QB controversies or arm strength problems. They're merely rolling along, having already tripled last year's victory total of three.

What the Colts are hoping for this week is their best game. Though the Jets defense seemed to have somewhat solved the Indy offense in two games, the Colts chose to look at it from the angle that they just didn't play that well, that they were fortunate to come away with last week's 13-6 win over the Jets.

"You're always looking for that perfect game, and I don't know if we'll ever get that," Manning said. "We've beaten some good teams, and we have played extremely well at times, but I feel like we're still looking for our best game. It would be a great time to do it this week."

Added Colts coach Jim Mora, "I hope we haven't played our best game yet. I hope we play it Sunday."

Mora called the Miami defense "the best we have played or will play this year." How quickly he forgot about the Jets, who held the high-powered Colts to 29 points -- their per-game average this season -- in the two games the teams played.

As good as Miami's defense is, the Dolphins will be hard-pressed to hold the Colts to 13 or 16 points Sunday. They're going to need to score a minimum of three touchdowns to win this game, and if they don't, the Colts might be making plans to host a playoff game for the first time since 1977.

For the Colts' part, they're doing everything they can to not get ahead of themselves, as exciting as this resurrection has been.

"I don't even want to talk about that (the playoffs) right now to be honest with you," Colts safety Jason Belser said. "Talk to me about Miami."

The Colts' remaining schedule includes a home games against a desperate Patriots' team on Dec. 12 and Washington on Dec. 19 and finally a road game in Cleveland against the expansion Browns and the finale in Buffalo.

"Not that we're looking ahead, but these next games have a lot of ramifications to them," Manning said.

But a win Sunday could end a lot of the suspense.

Steelers armed with tough decision
Steelers quarterback Kordell Stewart, who signed a five-year, $27 million contract in April, has performed so poorly that he has been relegated to being a receiver again. An expensive receiver.

After Pittsburgh's embarrassing loss to the hapless Bengals last week, embattled Steelers coach Bill Cowher demoted Stewart and said Mike Tomczak would start at quarterback, adding that Stewart will have to help out at receiver because of injuries at that position.

"We have a receiver situation," Cowher said, referring to injuries to Will Blackwell and Courtney Hawkins, "and I'm sure Kordell will be used a little bit in that role because of that situation."

The last time Stewart played as a wide receiver was the 1996 season, his second in the league. In 1995, he caught 14 passes for 235 yards and one touchdown, averaging 16.8 yards per reception. In 1996, he caught 17 passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 17.2 yards per catch.

"He hasn't played receiver in a long time," Cowher said. "When he was playing receiver, if he wanted to work at it, he could have been pretty good. How quickly can he recapture that? That's hard to say."

If the Steelers were to get rid of Stewart, they'd take huge hits on the salary cap because of his $8.1 million signing bonus.

If they would trade or cut Stewart before June 2000, he would count $6.48 million against their salary cap next season, which cannot be an option. If they waited until after June 1, he would count just $1.62 million against their cap in 2000 and the remainder, $4.86 million, against them in 2001.

Cowher said he believes Stewart will bounce back as a quarterback, but he's been vague about Stewart's future as at the position.

"It's all circumstantial," Cowher said. "You can look down through the years at the number of guys who have developed in the latter part of their career for whatever reason. I think experience has a lot to do with it."

Although Cowher has been mum on the topic, owner Daniel Rooney said this week that Stewart will be the team's starting quarterback in the 2000 season.

But if things don't turn quickly for the Steelers, they'll be out of the playoff for the second consecutive season after being one of the most consistently successful teams of the '90s.

The "Annual Tuna Meltdown"
Speaking of turmoil, the foundation is crumbling in New England, where Pete Carroll is feeling the heat with his Patriots having lost three in a row after a 6-2 start.

And, if you have any question about the powers Parcells and his Jets coaching staff still have over the Patriots, you need only look at how New York has ruined New England's season in each of the three years since Parcells left town.

Three games ago, the Jets defeated a Patriots team that was tied for first place in the AFC East. New England has lost two more since and is now 6-5 and on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. In 1997 and '98, the Patriots lost three of their next four after losing a game to Parcells' Jets.

In three years, that makes the Patriots 2-8 in midseason stretches after losing to the Jets. In Boston, they're calling this aggravating ritual the Patriots' "Annual Tuna Meltdown."

"Coaches live on the edge," Carroll said. "This is a sick time for coaches. It's terrible."

Through it all, Carroll insists he's not concerning himself with his future, though impatient team owner Robert Kraft is certain to fire him if the Pats miss the playoffs. Speaking of Kraft, he left the Patriots' 17-7 loss to the Bills in Buffalo early to fly home.

There has been speculation that Kraft has his eye on Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick. This would be a compelling move for both Kraft and Belichick. Kraft is known to like Belichick a lot. In fact, he made a move to try retaining him when Parcells left the Patriots.

But Belichick going to the Patriots is highly unlikely to happen because of Belichick's unique contract.

In essence, Belichick, who makes about $750,000 a year as Parcells' right-hand man, has a head coach's contract because he's the Jets' head coach in waiting as soon as Parcells retires. That means, if the Patriots were to hire him away (if Belichick wanted to go) New England would be required to pay significant compensation to the Jets.

Look for Belichick to remain with the Jets, look for Parcells to coach one more year and then Belichick to take over in New York in 2001.

Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post writes a weekly AFC notebook for ESPN.com that appears each Thursday.