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Thursday, July 25
 
Lightning: They know the score

By Graham Hays
ESPN.com

Was last season business as usual in Tampa?

Sure, the Lightning missed the playoffs again, meaning the franchise has just one postseason appearance since debuting in 1992.

But a 10-point improvement in the standings while dealing with adversity on and off the ice suggests the team is not without a pulse.

After allowing 280 goals during the 2000-01 season, third most in the league, the Lightning cut their goals allowed to 219. No other team came close to matching that 61-goal turnaround.

2001-02 by the numbers
Record:
27-40-11-4, 69 points
(T24th overall, T12th East, 3rd Southeast)
Goals for:
178/2.17 (28th overall)
Goals against:
219/2.63 (20th overall)
Differential:
-41 (25th overall)
20-goal scorers:
Dave Andreychuk (20), Vincent Lecavalier (20), Brad Richards (20)
50-point scorers:
Richards (62), Vaclav Prospal (55)

John Tortorella entered his first full season as coach with a new goaltender and plenty of expectations for improvement. What he didn't have was restricted free agent Vincent Lecavalier. Negotiations between the team and star turned ugly early, setting a dismal tone for the start of the season.

Lecavalier ended his holdout in time to play in the team's third game, but the drama was far from over. Trade rumors swirled for the next two months, as neither side made more than half-hearted attempts to reconcile their differences. Eventually taken off the block, Lecavalier scored seven of his 19 goals in the final 12 games.

While the rest of the roster offered less drama, injuries to wingers Martin St. Louis and Fredrik Modin robbed the team of key offensive weapons for extended periods.

So just how did the Lightning bolster their defense and improve on the previous season's dismal record? Much of the credit goes to goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin. Impressive in a late-season audition after arriving from Phoenix in April of 2001, Khabibulin was even better in his first full season since 1998-99. One season after Kevin Weekes and Dan Cloutier each failed to crack .900 in save percentage, Khabibulin posted a .920 save percentage and 2.36 GAA despite facing the fourth-most shots in the league.

Looking at next season
Khabibulin was the story last season, but the team needs offense to be the story this season. Without more than 178 goals, Tampa Bay will again waste their netminder's brilliance. Eight teams scored fewer than 200 goals last season and not one finished with more than 73 points.

The Lightning have more talent up front than many losing teams, but promise needs to blossom into production. Like it or not, things begin with Lecavalier, who doesn't turn 23 until April. He's running out of time to establish himself as a premier scoring threat after four full NHL seasons, but most teams still regard him as an elite talent as evidenced by the interest in him even after last season's spat with management. Lecavalier has the playmaking skills to make those around him better, something vitally important on a team without any natural 40-goal scorers.

Aside from Lacavalier, the Lightning have plenty of young talent. Brad Richards avoided a sophomore slump, matching his rookie total with 62 points. The center's goals dropped from 21 to 20, but he took 250 shots, 72 more than his rookie season, suggesting he possesses 30-goal potential. That's good, because 20 goals shouldn't be enough to lead a team, as it was last season for Richards and Dave Andreychuk. Depending on the health of St. Louis and Modin, both expected to be ready for the start of training camp, Richards could center a potent top line.

Unlike Richards, Shane Willis suffered through a slow second season. Acquired from Carolina in March, he never displayed the 20-goal form he showcased as a rookie with the Hurricanes. New arrival Ruslan Fedotenko likely joins Lecavalier and possibly Willis on the second line. A solid two-way player for the Flyers, Fedotenko's price tag, the fourth-overall selection in this summer's draft, demands he score often for the Lightning. Both Willis and Fedotenko should benefit from a full training camp with the team.

The rest of the forwards are an intriguing mix of role players, bruisers and prospects. Vaclav Prospal trailed only Richards in points last season, but there's some doubt as to whether the team can afford him if arbitration goes in his favor. Losing Prospal would significantly weaken the team's depth, although veterans Tim Taylor and Brian Holzinger are reliable options at center.

Andreychuk returns for another season, and the 38-year-old winger remains arguably the team's best power-play sniper. Acquired in separate deals towards the end of last season, Chris Dingman and Andre Roy should prevent opponents from taking too many liberties with the team's stars, such as they are in Tampa Bay.

Second-year pro Nikita Alexeev and rookie Alexander Svitov will be asked to contribute points in addition to youthful enthusiasm. Alexeev, a veteran of the OHL, scored just four goals in his first NHL season but will start the coming season with additional bulk on his 6-5 frame. Svitov, Tampa's first-round pick in 2001, should shift from center to winger and has a good shot at earning regular minutes.

Defensive depth is abundant, but the same can't be said for quality. Despite seeing Pavel Kubina's plus-minus rating drop after two seasons of steady improvement, the team rewarded him with a new two-year deal, thereby avoiding arbitration. Both sides hope a third straight season of double-digit goals will follow.

After Kubina and reliable veteran Jassen Cullimore come a variety of under-27 options. Dan Boyle, Kristian Kudroc, Brad Lukowich (acquired from Philadelphia along with Fedotenko), Stan Neckar, Nolan Pratt and Cory Sarich are all in the mix for playing time. Even Ben Clymer, who totaled most of his 34 points as a forward, could return to the blueline.

With only Kubina rating as better than a No. 4 or No. 5 defenseman on most teams, the Lightning desperately need another big-minutes defender. Bryan Berard might fit the bill after proving himself healthy last season, and rumors abound that the Lightning are close to signing him.

Tampa Bay has the pieces in place to win 30 games for the first time since the 1996-97 season, but it's not clear if the Lightning have the commitment from management to eventually push for the playoffs. Resisting the temptation to deal Lecavalier for a bushel of prospects was a step in the right direction, but the trade for Fedotenko and subsequent inactivity in free agency leaves the team with no clear direction for the upcoming season. Unlike some teams that simply lack the talent to compete, Tampa Bay has just enough talent to underachieve.




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