Frozen Ponderings

It didn't take long for Mario Lemieux's return to catapult Jaromir Jagr back to the NHL scoring lead, where he's tied with Joe Sakic with 73 points as of Friday. Since Jan. 1 -- which only excludes two games of Lemieux's comeback -- Jagr has 29 points in 15 games. Lemieux has 27 points in that span. The Penguins now have five players (Jagr, Lemieux, Robert Lang, Martin Straka, Alexei Kovalev) averaging at least a point per game. Of course, Lemieux is averaging two. As great as Lemieux's return has been, it hasn't necessarily solidified Pittsburgh's playoff positioning. Currently, the Penguins control the No. 7 seed in the East. They are just three points ahead of Boston. However, they are only four points behind No. 4 Philly and eight points out of No. 1. Scour the NHL's top-25 scoring list, and you'll find only one player with more than 100 penalty minutes. Who is it? (Don't cheat) ... Theo Fleury with 114. The next highest is Doug Weight with 75, and that's only because of the nutty he threw on San Jose's Bryan Marchment after Marchment leg checked him. How important is power-play efficiency in the NHL? There are 10 teams above the league average of 16 percent on the man advantage. All 10 of those teams are playoff-level clubs. The theory is consistent until you get to No. 11, a spot the woeful Rangers occupy.

Now, it's time to look at the East, where the playoff waters are a bit murkier. From No. 1 to No. 8, only 11 points separate the teams, whereas in the West, Colorado has 20 more points than current No. 8 Edmonton. After the defending champ Devils, plenty of unknowns exist. In the past, teams like Buffalo and Pittsburgh have feasted on higher-seeded squads. A potential playoff preview comes our way Saturday when the Penguins play the Devils.

The teams are presented in order of their rank as contenders, and the corresponding numbers represent the teams' odds for making the conference finals. As always, ask questions or share thoughts as you wish.

New Jersey Devils: 2-to-1
The defending champs might not look as flawless on paper as Colorado, but this team is deep, fast and also tough. It doesn't seem that Brian Rafalski and Scott Niedermayer are hurt too bad, and even if Niedermayer needs his knee scoped, that time off will ensure he's fresh in the playoffs, a key not unlike the effect his 10-game suspension had last season.

Alexander Mogilny has been everything the Devils hoped for -- gotta love the contract year -- and his offensive threat makes it more difficult for opponents to focus on Patrick Elias, Jason Arnott and Petr Sykora. The key for New Jersey is what GM Lou Lamoriello gets before the March 13 trade deadline. Rob Blake or a forward like Keith Tkachuk would be huge, but pulling off that size of a deal might compromise the roster too much, and in the past, Lamoriello has filled holes without changing the team's makeup. If Lamoriello, once again, makes the right moves, the Devils will be difficult to beat. Devils fans hope that Scott Gomez isn't lost in the shuffle.

Buffalo Sabres: 5-to-1
Why so high? Because Buffalo is most dangerous when no one notices or talks about it. There isn't much scuttlebutt about moving Dominik Hasek, so for the moment, he's still around to backbone the Sabres. His playoff record (2.08 GAA, 30 wins) speaks for itself, and his recent play shows Hasek can still beat opponents virtually on his own.

If the Mike Peca situation resolves itself, Buffalo's chances are even more justified. As it stands, the Sabres are accustomed to life without their captain. If he returns, the team is that much better. Same with a trade if impact players are in the deal. That addition would aid Buffalo with its one major weakness: scoring. The Sabres average a paltry 2.58 goals per game, which is 19th in the NHL. GM Darcy Regier should upgrade in that department before the deadline.

Ottawa Senators: 6-to-1
This year, they have Alexei Yashin. That's good. They don't have Tom Barrasso. That's good, too. But it remains to be seen if his replacement, Patrick Lalime, can do better. Lalime has been solid most of the season, but he has no playoff experience, and as was said about more than one team out West, trying to make the finals with an unproven goalie lowers any team's odds. Having said that, it must be pointed out that goalies have to prove themselves a first time, and Lalime might be one goalie worthy of gaining that status by the end of the season.

What makes the Senators a big threat for New Jersey is that Ottawa is one of the few teams that skates as well as the Devils. The Devils proved that fast teams -- balanced out with some grit -- can win. If the Sens don't get a proven goalie, look for an upgrade on defense and in the overall grit department.

Philadelphia Flyers: 7-to-1
It's been said ad nauseum that if Roman Cechmanek remains the No. 1 goalie, Philly enters the playoffs with a rookie goalie for the second consecutive season. That hurts the old ESPN.com betting line.

The Flyers might be a little slow on defense and not too deep up front, especially without John LeClair. But Mark Recchi, Simon Gagne and Keith Primeau have played some exceptional and inspired hockey, which should be good enough to give any team trouble. The Flyers don't match up that well with the Devils, but the intensity of the rivalry cancels out some of New Jersey's advantages.

Although it might not be the most popular opinion, it's still a little sad that fans won't ever see how good the Flyers could be with a happy and healthy Eric Lindros and John LeClair to go along with Gagne, Primeau, Recchi and even Rick Tocchet and Daymond Langkow.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 8-to-1
Don't forget that Toronto made the conference finals two seasons ago and lost to eventual-champ New Jersey last year. The Leafs aren't exactly postseason failures. However, media and fans in Toronto expect a lot more from this team. Should they? Curtis Joseph is a great goalie, and the addition of Gary Roberts (21 goals) has helped add scoring depth and some toughness.

But as good as Mats Sundin is, he gets hounded about his leadership and playoff performance. Last season, the Leafs captain scored just three goals in 12 playoff games. They need more out of him, and the hope is that Roberts, Sergei Berezin and Yanic Perreault can open up some space for Sundin.

The reason the Leafs don't get the playoff respect of a Buffalo is that Joseph isn't quite as good as Hasek -- at least in the playoffs -- and the Maple Leafs don't play team defense nearly as well as the Sabres.

Washington Capitals: 15-to-1
The Rodney Dangerfield of the Eastern Conference. The Caps are in first place in the Southeast Division -- for whatever that's worth -- and just beat the Avs on the road. But for some reason, it's tough to believe in a team that boasts a No. 1 scorer who didn't want to be on the team as of two months ago and a second-leading point-getter skating around at the ripe, old age of 38.

With Olaf Kolzig playing well, the Caps will play any team close, but they just don't have the offensive depth to threaten, especially since Chris Simon has fallen off the map.

Pittsburgh Penguins: 67-to-1
The odds: Take Mario Lemieux's super-human No. 66 and add one to symbolize the one big-game goalie this team lacks. Of course, this one is a little tongue-in-cheek, but the irony remains relevant. Unless the Penguins have a legitimate No. 1 playoff goalie, No. 66's presence might not matter when it comes to making the Cup finals.

Alexei Kovalev's production hasn't dropped off with Lemieux's return, and no one has benefitted from Lemieux more than Jagr. Those two offensive lines match up well with any opponent.

But at the moment, the hobbling Garth Snow and Jean-Sebastien Aubin haven't convinced critics that either one can carry the goaltending load for a long playoff run.

Boston Bruins: 1972-1
The last year the Bruins won the Cup was 1972. And that will remain true by this June. Boston's play has improved under coach Mike Keenan, but if one key player goes down or plays poorly, the Bruins can lose to any of the 29 other teams. The list of key players includes Jason Allison, Bill Guerin, Joe Thornton, Sergei Samsonov, Kyle McLaren and Byron Dafoe. The Bruins are one year and two-to-three players away from being a threat in a late-round, seven-game series.

Carolina Hurricanes: 8030-to-1
The high number represents the Hurricanes' home attendance for a recent game against Tampa Bay. As it stands, Carolina has about as much of a chance of making the finals as the franchise has of selling out a game against the Lightning.

New York Rangers: 9402-to-1
This one is a bit trickier. The 94 represents the last time the Rangers won the Cup, and the 02 is the next time they'll compete for the playoffs. The next six weeks are a big test for new GM Glen Sather. He will be tempted to make big trades to try and make the playoffs this season. But what he should do is dump dead weight, keep the young prospects in the system and go after it next year, perhaps when Joe Sakic is centering a line with Theo Fleury on his wing.

The rest of the East: No line
Florida should be competing for something, but they stunk too much, too soon to be a threat to even make the playoffs. All the other teams will have some hot stretches but will be hard-pressed to go on the type of streak necessary to jump two-to-three teams in the standings. Several teams, especially Montreal and Atlanta, might play spoiler roles down the stretch.

Brian A. Shactman covers the NHL for ESPN.com and can be reached at brian.shactman@espn.com.