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Monday, June 30
 
Labor climate reshapes free-agent market

By Mike Heika
Special to ESPN.com

Rick Dudley was patiently trying to make the interviewer understand.

Derian Hatcher
Derian Hatcher may find the market is dryer than usual for a Norris Trophy runner-up.
So why was it that the Florida Panthers GM wasn't interested in acquiring some of the top-level talent in the league in exchange for the first overall pick in last week's NHL entry draft?

"We really valued Nathan Horton, and it was going to take an awful lot for us to move out of the top three picks," Dudley said. "I told people right off the bat that I was going to set a high price, and that's what I did."

But didn't it seem more than a few teams were willing to meet that high price? Didn't it seem like more than a few teams were willing to give up just about anything?

"Yeah, but the value of this draft is so strong that teams aren't willing to trade third-round picks, let alone first," Dudley said. "This is one of the deepest drafts we have ever seen."

Still, these are 18-year-olds and the players available in trade could help you improve next season. That surely has to increase their value, doesn't it?

"Well," Dudley said, pausing before spelling things out completely. "There are still going to be a lot of players available in free agency."

And with that, Dudley finally tipped his hand. No wonder he wasn't about to give up a top prospect for what was being shopped around last week. The same stuff will be shopped around this week ... and the week after ... and the week after. Welcome to NHL free agency in 2003, where no longer are teams fighting for the services of the one player who can push them over the top. Instead, on Tuesday, they will be trying to unload the players on whom they made mistakes in previous free-agent bidding wars.

Two years ago, the Philadelphia Flyers were determined not to allow John LeClair to hit the open market, so they gave him a five-year deal worth $45 million. For added measure they went out and signed Jeremy Roenick to a deal that averaged $8 million a season. The Dallas Stars were so upset they didn't land either LeClair or Roenick that they went out and signed Pierre Turgeon to a five-year contract and agreed to a no-trade clause. They followed that up last summer by wooing Bill Guerin with a five-year deal worth $45 million and handed out another no-trade clause.

Now, any one of those players could probably be had. Oh, the Flyers still love Roenick and the Stars say they were only shopping Guerin to try to create money to re-sign Derian Hatcher, but the bottom line is teams don't feel paying any player $9 million is smart business. As a result, Turgeon has been put on waivers and LeClair is available for the price of his contract. They're joined on the auction block by Capitals winger Jaromir Jagr, Bruins winger Martin Lapointe and Rangers forwards Eric Lindros and Pavel Bure. Are these bad players? Nope. Could they help just about any NHL team? Probably. But they simply are horribly overpriced in today's market.

Part of the reason is that the NHL's collective bargaining agreement will expire on Sept. 15, 2004. Owners are expected to push for a salary cap or luxury tax, so GMs are trying to get their respective financial houses in order now. While they knew this was coming two years ago, some were too enticed by the chance to spend freely under the "old system" and potentially buy a Stanley Cup. Some teams will still try to use money this season to make one last run before the low-budget teams get a chance to catch up.

But something else happened along the way to labor Armaggedon, and it's also having a huge role in shaping the free-agent environment -- the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim made the Stanley Cup finals with a well-balanced and reasonably priced lineup. The Ducks played solid team defense and were opportunistic in spreading their scoring. So why was it that Paul Kariya was making $10 million and no other forward made more than $3.5 million?

It was a question asked by several GMs. If you're a better team with three very good $3 million players, why would you give one player $10 million?

"Hockey is the ultimate team game," said Devils GM Lou Lamoriello. "It always has been and it always will be."

Lamoriello has applied that philosophy to perfection, deviating only by giving special salary treatment to goalie Martin Brodeur and captain Scott Stevens (who each make the identical $6,891,103). But because Lamoriello understands that Bobby Holik can be replaced by John Madden, that Alexander Mogilny can be replaced by Jamie Langenbrunner and that Joe Nieuwendyk might be able to be replaced by Michael Rupp, he has set up a model for the rest of the NHL to follow.

Now, the Stars believe they might be able to win without Hatcher (although they say they still want to sign him). Now, the Red Wings believe they might be able to win without Sergei Fedorov (although they say they still want to sign him). Now, the Rangers believe they might be able to win without Brian Leetch (although they say they still want to sign him).

Instead of always seeking the teams that are spending money, players might have to seek the teams that simply have money to spend.
Bottom line, they want to sign these players for much less than what has been the going rate. And if players don't want to take less, then teams are prepared to move on.

Ironically, we've seen this philosophy at work in the NHL for years. It was in place when the Oilers let go of Curtis Joseph and Doug Weight. It was in place when the Flames lost Nieuwendyk and Theo Fleury. It was in place when the Blackhawks bid adieu to Roenick and Ed Belfour and Chris Chelios. Many teams have put their foot down in the past and said enough is enough.

But those teams weren't contending for Stanley Cups. Those teams often weren't even making the playoffs. In fact, only Lamoriello's Devils have been able to compete on a budget for the past decade. Out West, the Red Wings, Avalanche and Stars have out-spent each other to the top. In the East, the Flyers and Maple Leafs have used free agency to stay consistently competitive while the Islanders and Capitals have dipped into the market to make brief runs.

And that's why some believe this market might not be so soft. That's why some believe that as soon as Detroit makes a deal, Colorado or Dallas will respond. Or maybe it will be Philadelphia answering Toronto.

And it could still happen ... but it hasn't yet.

"The money has been pulled back in, even by the teams that most people think have money," Maple Leafs GM Pat Quinn said.

In Dallas, for example, the Stars have increased their payroll from $39.9 million in 1999 to $66 million this season. Now, the Stars are risking the loss of Hatcher just to keep the payroll in line. The problem? While the new American Airlines Center produces revenue, it can't be raised any further.

"We just can't take on any more long-term contracts," said Stars GM Doug Armstrong. "We've done that, and now we can't do it anymore."

There are no more new luxury boxes to sell, no ticket-price increases available, no expansion fees coming in. The Stars know what their top potential revenue is for the next few years -- and they've maxed it out. So they must stay under $66 million.

Because of that, Armstrong said he will not be a player at all in the free agent market. If Hatcher is still out there and wants to play in Dallas for less, the Stars will adjust. If not, they'll get a sixth or seventh defenseman on the cheap.

And there could be plenty available.

"It's a buyer's market," Carolina GM Jim Rutherford said.

Which could make for some interesting twists and turns. Can teams with payrolls in the teens and twenties now grab up big bargains and make a run for the Cup? Could next year's Cinderella be Atlanta or Florida or Nashville or Columbus?

That's where free agents might have to look now. Instead of always seeking the teams that are spending money, players might have to seek the teams that simply have money to spend.

Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.





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