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Friday, April 12
 
Time for teams to look at next season

By Mike Heika
Special to ESPN.com

For years, all you needed was 33-35 wins and a bag of your own pucks and you were happily invited to the Western Conference playoffs. Not anymore.

With the introduction of expansion franchises in Minnesota and Columbus as well as the mysterious added points given for overtime losses, 90 points will no longer get you a sniff out in the West. And that's a scary thought for the teams that won't make the playoffs this year.

First of all, the pressure to gain points will be at an optimum from the start of October next season. What's more, there's no sign of decline in any of the playoff teams. With San Jose, Chicago, Phoenix and Vancouver making impressive strides this season, it's incumbent upon the teams sitting at home to not just improve -- but improve a lot. Here's what the non-qualifiers are looking at:

Edmonton Oilers
Currently on the outside because of points and tie-breakers, the Oilers will break a string of five consecutive playoff appearances if they don't make it this season. Not only will their young team miss the experience, their weak coffers will miss the playoff money. While that money typically came from only 2-3 home dates each season, every little bit helps in Edmonton.

The Oilers could use that money to re-sign restricted free agents Anson Carter, Jason Smith, Mike York, Todd Marchant, Mike Grier and Eric Brewer. Or they could let go of players like Grier and Marchant and dabble in some of the cheaper unrestricted free agents, possibly making a run at Bryan Berard or Scott Lachance.

A payroll that should stay around $30 million might mean the Oilers simply have to cut back and not bring anyone in.

Dallas Stars
The Stars have made so many changes that they now want to try to settle things down. That's going to be tough when so many pieces don't seem to fit and so many decisions have to be made. Seven regulars are unrestricted free agents, among them Ed Belfour, Brent Gilchrist, Randy McKay, Kirk Muller and Pat Verbeek.

If you cut all of their salaries from the payroll, the Stars would be down to a trim $40.2 million payroll. About $4 million has to be given in raises to existing players, but that would leave Dallas with about $13 million before they hit the $57 million mark at which they started the 2001-2002 season. With that money, they might try to make a run at Bill Guerin, Curtis Joseph or both.

Stars owner Tom Hicks said he wants to try to win a Stanley Cup in the next two seasons before 2004 because he believes the team has the core in place. The question is: Can the Stars convince free agents to come to Dallas?

Calgary Flames
Flames GM Craig Button has made some very smart moves in the past two years. He's also made some dumb ones. The smart ones -- trading for Craig Conroy and Roman Turek and acquiring Igor Kravchuk and Bob Boughner -- should still help the team next season. The bad moves -- signing Mike Vernon and Dave Lowry -- can be corrected this summer when they are let go as free agents.

A lot of what Calgary does will come down to getting Jarome Iginla signed. A potential jump of $4-5 million in his salary will eat up any flexibility Button might have in the payroll. However, losing him would be debilitating. Look for Button to work a deal with Iginla and hand over a lot of positions to youngsters or hungry veterans willing to work for $500,000. The fly in the ointment might be that Button also has to sign Kravchuk (unrestricted), as well as Denis Gauthier, Tony Lydman and Robyn Regehr (each restricted) on defense.

Minnesota Wild
There is no expansion team tougher to play night in and night out. The Wild has already surpassed the Predators for being annoyingly good. The problem is Jim Dowd is 33, Wes Walz is 32, Sergei Zholtok is 30 and Andrew Brunette and Antti Laaksonen are each 28. That's not ancient by any means, but is this team moving into its playing prime at a time when it might not be ready to compete?

The Wild has raked in cash for two seasons with a tiny payroll and sellout crowds. If they are indeed built to win now, it might be time to spend a little on free agents. If they don't spend on free agents, is there any chance they win now?

It's hard to pin down who might interest the Wild, but landing a Scott Young or Andrew Cassels or Cliff Ronning could help push this team into the playoffs. Otherwise, just plan on them continuing to scare people with older players who might be too old when the team finally develops.

Anaheim Mighty Ducks
There might be no team more capable of a surge in the standings than the Ducks. They have built a base of defense and have found a No. 1 goalie in Jean-Sebastein Giguere. They rank eighth in goals against and sixth on the penalty kill. They have battled several injuries that have eaten away at their offensive ability and have to expect more from players like Paul Kariya (56 points), Jeff Friesen (42 points) and Steve Rucchin (22 points in 36 games) next season.

That said, they have to re-sign seven key free agents that include Kariya, Rucchin, Ruslan Salei and Vitali Vishnevsky. And those raises alone could eat up any waggle room in the payroll. This team is not producing much revenue right now, so it almost has to spend money to make money -- and it's not clear if Disney wants to take that leap yet.

Adam Oates, Andrew Cassels and Cliff Ronning could be available on the free agent market in the summer. The Ducks should try to get at least one new center. In addition, they might want to try to go after a veteran grinder like Tom Fitzgerald or Kelly Buchberger to help the room.

Nashville Predators
The Predators have taken a step back to take a step forward, and hopefully it will work out for them. They have let go of some key veterans like Cliff Ronning and Tom Fitzgerald with the hopes of handing this team to the youngsters. The results have been a hideous 3-12-2 record since March 10, but that's the cost of change.

What's great for Nashville is the emerging play of Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, Denis Arkhipov, Vladimir Orszagh and Martin Erat. Timmonen might be one of the best emerging skilled defensemen in the league and the rest are all talented forwards. What's more, the Predators still have the hope that they can get more from David Legwand and missed Scott Walker's contributions for most of the season due to injury. They also should get a boost from college prospect Darren Haydar and skilled junior defenseman Dan Hamhuis.

Expect the Predators to stay the course with a slow and steady build-up. However, they do have a decision to make in goal. Do they stick with Mike Dunham 29), who has proven talented but injury-prone? Or do they hand the team over to Tomas Vokoun (25) and Jan Lasak (23), knowing Lasak might be the goalie of the future? If they can trust the youngsters, Dunham could bring something decent on the trade market.

Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets are in a bit of a mess. They went with veteran talent in hopes of winning quickly and yet still have one of the worst teams in the league. While Atlanta is playing 17 rookies, Columbus is led by a group of players who have either turned 30 or are approaching it. Rostislav Klesla (20) has had a wonderful rookie season and should be the core around which the defense is built, but it appears he'll have no one to pass the puck to in five years.

David Vrbony took a step up this season, but he'll be 27 before next season starts. Chris Neilsen (22) could take a step up next season, but he's not really a big numbers guy. That leaves Mathieu Darche and Brad Moran as the new kids most likely to join the roster.

GM Doug MacLean certainly has some room to buy free agents, but it might be time to reduce the veterans rather than increase. In fact, his best move of the off-season might be moving Ron Tugnutt and letting Marc Denis get as many games in goal as possible.

Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.






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