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| Tuesday, August 6 Updated: August 7, 10:43 AM ET Wings remain Cup favorites, but Sharks the best bet By Terry Frei Special to ESPN.com |
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LAS VEGAS -- Wanna bet? Wagering on the NHL is legal in Canada, of course, on the parlay-ticket games run by the various provincial lotteries. It's limited stakes, multiple games, a lot of fun, and a means of raising a few loonies. The United States should be able to do the same thing, but Congress caved in to pressure from the National Football League over a decade ago and outlawed such lottery games based on sporting events, permitting Oregon to "grandfather" its Sports Action game, but not allowing any other states to join the act.
So the following information is for entertainment purposes only. It is not offered with accompanying, high-pitched screams about exclusive inside information from an assistant trainer's cousin's mechanic. But a quick survey of the (legal) Las Vegas casinos shows, among other things, the early players of futures wagering on the 2003 Stanley Cup liked the moves made by the Rangers, Sharks, and the Stars in the offseason, and were reassured when the Red Wings brought in Curtis Joseph as Dominik Hasek's successor. Also, the early money has reinforced the prevailing wisdom that the Wings and Avalanche, the winners of the Stanley Cup in five of the last seven seasons, remain helmet and shoulder pads above the rest of the league. The Rangers opened at odds ranging from 28-1 to 30-1. As the early money and the flights from LaGuardia continue to come in, they have dropped to as low as 15-1 in some books. They also illustrate that shopping around for "value" is wise, because they remain as high as 22-1 in at least one major casino. So if you're among those who believe the signings of Bobby Holik and Darius Kasparaitis, the re-signing of Mike Richter, and the hiring of Bryan Trottier have made the Rangers at least bona fide longshot threats to win the Stanley Cup, you've got company. After the Stars allowed Ed Belfour to leave (essentially saying good riddance) and signed Bill Guerin and Scott Young, their odds improved from the 20-1 range to roughly 12-1 which seems to be the standard a month away from the opening of training camp. (Curiously, the loss of Guerin -- albeit, an expected loss -- didn't affect the Bruins' odds, since they opened in the 8-1 to 10-1 range and have stayed there.) The Sharks' re-signing of Teemu Selanne reinforced their status as the primary challenger to the Red Wings and the Avalanche in the Western Conference, and they have have dropped to as low as 7-1 after opening at 10-1. (Wow. We're crunching so many numbers here, this is starting to sound like a baseball seamhead story. We promise: We won't mention a hitter's on-base percentage, against lefthanders under 25 years old, in the fifth inning or earlier, in Tuesday night games on natural grass.) The Wings are either 3-1 or 7-2, depending on the book. That's a statement of faith, but it's also an indication that the Cup is considered far more up for grabs than the highly predictable NBA, where the Lakers are less than even money in some casinos to win again in 2003. How can that even be worth the trouble? Well, unless you bet the entire worth of your 201K (formerly known as 401K) on the Lakers and consider the possible 100 percent return over a year to be a great, if risky, investment. But that 3-1 seems a reasonable price on the Wings for those who believe in the likelihood of a Detroit repeat. The Avalanche are 7-2 co-favorites with the Wings in some places, but generally are priced as the 9-2 second choices. Colorado's offseason inertia obviously is considered a push with the assumption that Peter Forsberg is healthy again and the top-heavy roster with thinning depth still is capable of knocking off Detroit in the postseason. Looking at this week's odds at one major sports book on the Las Vegas Strip, the best "buys" on the board are the Red Wings, Sharks and Devils. Again, even 3-1 seems a pretty good price for a deserving favorite, as the Red Wings are. San Jose threw a scare into Colorado in the conference semifinals and re-signed everyone it wanted to bring back. Its quality depth almost turned the Colorado series around, and the Wings and Avalanche won't have to slip much -- if at all -- for the Sharks to make the next step. The Devils? Somebody has to come out of the East. Because of the Western dominance, all those prices on the tightly bunched Eastern favorites are reasonable, except perhaps for the apparently overrated Bruins. And once they get to the finals, even following the loss of Holik, the Devils would have a shot, if even because of Martin Brodeur. The mental bet here is going to be on the Sharks, at 8-1. So if anyone other than San Jose wins the 2003 Stanley Cup, feel free to say: "You've lost your mind!" Terry Frei is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. His book, "Horns, Hogs, and Nixon Coming," will be published by Simon and Schuster in December. |
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