John,
Are you on some type of hallucinogen to be picking the Rangers first in the East? Your prediction is yet another reason that we fans should be glad that ESPN has cut back its NHL broadcast schedule.
Anonymous
John,
You pick the Rangers No. 1? It means you have learned nothing by watching the NHL over the years. They should give your job to Ron MacLean. He knows something about the sport.
Fred Janis
John,
Are you on crack?
Tom in Jersey
You have spoken. And by and large your position is that I made my Eastern Conference predictions after an all-nighter with Darren Pang, Tommy Lee and ... TWINS!!!!
You are right, I AM no Ron MacLean. For those of you who don't know who Ron MacLean is, he is the host of "Hockey Night in Canada," the world's best six hours of hockey. MacLean also does other work for the CBC, Canada's principle television network. He is Canada's Bob Costas, with a whole lot of humility and everyman quality about him. He is bright, funny and likable, and he almost left "Hockey Night in Canada" last week in a contract dispute. The two sides worked it out, and Ron will be back with Don Cherry starting Oct. 12.
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| After a contract dispute, Ron MacLean is returning to "Hockey Night in Canada." |
Ron is a hero to me. He is everything I want to be as a broadcaster. Although I know I will never even be in the same rink as him, he is an excellent model to ATTEMPT to emulate. But like Mats Sundin turning on the outside edge of his right skate as he gains body position on his defender, talent can't be taught, and Ron has a talent like Sundin's skating. The NHL Center Ice package is worth the purchase, just to watch "Hockey Night in Canada" every Saturday Night. It's my favorite show on TV and my favorite night of the week during the hockey season. I go to work at ESPN, order steak tips from the 99 Restaurant in Bristol, Conn. (tribute to Wayne), sit in front of my 12-inch monitor and watch "Hockey Night in Canada." The nationwide outcry was huge when it was learned Ron might not return as host. There is not a sports reporter/anchor/analyst who would elicit such a reaction in the United States. Thankfully, he is returning. Cheers, Ron. You're my best TV friend.
But, back to the predictions. I look at all 30 teams with equal emotion when forecasting the season. I know I will oversell some and sell some short, but I'm confident I'll get more right than wrong. I'm not a FAN of the Rangers. I don't have Steve Vickers tattooed on my left butt cheek, or an Ed Mio autographed cup. I just feel the Rangers' lack of discipline the past couple of seasons was enormous, and that a change in coaching and approach will be enough to improve their record. The addition of Bobby Holik makes them very strong up the middle. Yes, the health factor is an IF the size of Steve Levy's hair, but predictions are judgments of talent and hunches. The East is open, they have three former NHL players with lots of coaching experience, and Glen Sather has to win this year. That's enough for me to give it a shot. Would I be surprised if the Flyers, Senators, Devils or Islanders made it to the Stanley Cup final? Absolutely not. Avoiding injuries, unexpected great seasons from unproven young players, a career year from a veteran and/or future trades can turn a good number of teams in the East into conference champions. Sometimes a team gets all those surprises in one year.
So, with that in mind, here is the Western Conference. As, always I value and look forward to reading your feedback. I learn more from you than I do some television analysts who speaks in clichés. While you read the rest of the column, I'll be in the garage burning incense, and listening to my Bob Marley boxed set with Woody Harrelson and Jack Black.
Peace, my bruthas. And sistas.
15. Nashville Predators
Over the past five years,
I have shed my tears
-- "She Loves Me Not" by Papa Roach
Well, that will be the theme AFTER this season. This is Year Five for the Preds, and the playoffs are not in reach. Season ticket holders, you will be getting your ticket increase money back. In my mind, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Florida are the only teams in the East that CAN'T make the playoffs. In the Western Conference, I'd say that three teams have no shot, as well, and the point totals should be pretty close. So, Nashville could finish anywhere from 13th to 15th. Injuries, career years from veterans and unexpected blooming from young players will determine who finishes where at the bottom of the West. This is a smart and solid franchise. The Predators just need time, and for their skill draft players to step up.
14. Minnesota Wild
Maybe I could be the one they adored,
that could be my reputation
-- "Sleepwalker" by The Wallflowers
Boy, do they ever adore the Wild in Minnesota -- 82 home games, 82 sellouts. Most people I talk to say the Wild's rink in St. Paul is the best in the league. I can't wait to see it in person at the 2004 All-Star Game. The organization is top-notch. Only one team in the NHL sends daily e-mails on what is happening in the organization. That team is the Wild. I hope when they eventually make the playoffs they don't get cold and arrogant like some of the more established NHL franchises. As long as they are made of Midwestern people, they won't. Goal scoring will continue to be the issue for the Wild in their quest to be a playoff team -- there aren't enough weapons.
13. Columbus Blue Jackets
I was looking for the new thing,
and you were the sunshine, heading my front line
-- "Life on a Chain" by Pete Yorn
Rick Nash might be an average NHL player, but the chances of him being only that one are low. Doug MacLean HAD to get him for his front line. I mean HAD. And I can't believe the relatively small price he paid. Columbus should have one of the higher improvement point totals in the NHL. They had 57 points last year, and if they stay healthy, they should get into the 70s. They have to establish themselves as a better road team. They had just eight road wins last year. That's bad. It's a sign of lack of character, guts and motivation. There are too many veterans on this team to allow that to happen again. Last year was a challenging one for this organization, one filled with tragedy. But, it is comprised of men and women with heart, passion and fire, and they showed how professional they are. Go to a Blue Jackets game in Columbus and the ushers and staff treat you like you are at a Triple-A baseball game. Friendly and warm. Until Jody Shelley takes the ice.
12. Los Angeles Kings
We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train,
beyond the Staples Center you can see America
-- "Deer Dance" by System of a Down
This is where the playoff hunt starts in the West -- 12 teams battling for eight spots. The Kings could make the playoffs, but I don't think they will. The moving train of the Western Conference once again signed some of the East's more productive players. Bill Guerin, Curtis Joseph. Petr Sykora could get 40 goals this year. Even Theo Fleury's 63 points went west. The Kings have three REAL good players in Jason Allison, Adam Deadmarsh and Zigmund Palffy, but then there is an offensive drop off. They start the year without defenseman Aaron Miller, who is recovering from abdominal surgery. The Kings do have some real good young players. If they unexpectedly produce, then L.A. can squeak into the playoffs again, but the NHL has shown that you can't usually depend on young players to make the playoffs.
11. Chicago Blackhawks
What part of our history's reinvented and under rug swept?
What part of your memory is selective and tends to forget?
-- "Hands Clean" by Alanis Morissette
To even suggest that Sergei Berezin will fill Tony Amonte's skates, as the Blackhawks have implied, is arrogant and insulting to Blackhawks fans. Getting off to a good start is so important for the mid- to lower-tier teams in the West because the competition is so good. With all the elite teams of the NHL in the West, it's difficult for these teams to string together long unbeaten streaks because they play against stronger competition than Eastern teams do. I just sense the Kings and Hawks will get off to slow starts. I want the Blackhawks to do well because they have the best uniforms. And it's good for the NHL when the Blackhawks do well because they play in a great city with great fans and they have fans all over the country. They can make the playoffs because they have a veteran defense and enough skill players. But the veterans could easily get injured and/or worn down and the skill players are either hurt (Eric Daze) or inconsistent.
10. Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partner,
sometimes I feel like my only friend
-- "Under the Bridge" by the Red Hot Chili Peppers
Paul Kariya, one of the NHL's most pure and delicious talents, has been performing a solo act since the trade of Teemu Selanne to San Jose in March 2001. In an effort to bolster Kariya and, more importantly, the Ducks, Anaheim signed Adam Oates (the NHL's leader in assists the past two seasons) and traded for Petr Sykora (35 goals two years ago). This is a team that plays good defensive hockey and has a good young goalie. If they can get the power play going and they win at home, they can get 85-90 points. Last year, it took 94 points to make the playoffs in the West. Stanislav Chistov has a shot to be Rookie of the Year. Anaheim has made the playoffs twice in nine seasons.
9. Calgary Flames
Well, I've been afraid of changing,
cause I've built my life around you
-- "Landslide" by Fleetwood Mac (or the Smashing Pumpkins' remake if you're under 30)
The Flames, for now, have built the franchise around Jarome Iginla. How can they afford that salary? You've gotta wonder if the Rangers offered Jamie Lundmark, Dan Blackburn and Tomas Kloucek, would (or should) the Flames accept a deal for Iginla? For now, the Flames are saying he stays. Iginla is at the start of his greatest days as a player. He will get 50 goals again this year, and could get 60 playing with Chris Drury. The Flames had 79 points last year while scoring just 201 goals. They will score more goals this year. For them to make the playoffs, they would need to be carried in by a goaltender. It just doesn't seem as if Roman Turek is that guy.
8. Edmonton Oilers
Clowntime is over, time to take over,
while others just talk and talk
-- "Clowntime is Over" by Elvis Costello
After five straight years of making the playoffs, the Oilers swung and missed last year by two points. Like Calgary, Edmonton needs to score more goals. Getting Mike York late last year will help for the full season. Mike Comrie is the Allen Iverson of the NBA. Actually, he's more Pete Maravich than Iverson. Get the NHL Center Ice package and watch Comrie play hockey. This is the type of team you would think the fully interpreted obstruction rules would help -- fast and aggressive forecheckers, especially on their sweet home ice. But remember, goaltending equipment is still enormous, and you still have to finish. It says here the Oilers finish enough to make the playoffs.
7. St. Louis Blues
Hey, don't write yourself off yet,
It's only in your head, you feel left out and looked down on
Just try your best, try everything you can
-- "The Middle" by Jimmy Eat World
Joel Quenneville was a smart player and is a smart coach. He will find a way to get the Blues into the playoffs. There is still plenty of talent on this team. Now, with no expectations, perhaps Quennville can get the Blues to loosen up and use their talent to its fullest. Chris Pronger will be out until around the New Year, but this team will score enough goals to prevent any kind of bad start. If they are VERY healthy and get an unexpected season from someone, the Blues can go far in the playoffs.
6. Vancouver Canucks
I'll never forgive myself again,
I'm so sick and tired of making the same mistakes
-- "Mistakes" by Godsmack
Under GM Brian Burke, the Canucks have improved every year and made the playoffs the last two years. Burke's first great move was hiring Marc Crawford, one of the NHL's finest behind the bench. Hockey brains topped off by the NHL's best head of coaching hair. The Canucks are a very sexy team. Deep, young, international and growing. It all comes back to goaltending. In a lot of ways, last year was Dan Cloutier's rookie year. It was the 26-year-old's first full season on a good team. Cloutier's save percentage was .901 last year. Not good enough. It must be tough on an NHL GM when you are not POSITIVE you have the goaltender you need, especially when you have the talent up front. Burke may be CONFIDENT in Dan Cloutier. But is he POSITIVE?
5. Phoenix Coyotes
What if your brain, unexpectedly and suddenly,
picked out things to flip around and view a lot differently?
-- "Take Me to Your Leader" by Incubus
The Phoenix Coyotes have decided that sitting around and whining about low revenues and teams like the Rangers heading toward $100 million payrolls will never get them into the playoffs. Brains and passion will. The Tony Amonte signing came out of nowhere. Now suddenly the Coyotes are a solid second-tier Western Conference team. Strong goaltending and solid defense is where the Coyotes start. That's how they got into the playoffs last year. Once there, they really were no threat. They lacked dynamic offensive players to be considered dangerous. That's where Amonte comes in. He should score 30-40 goals again, especially if the Coyotes have a prolific power play. Amonte had just six power-play goals last season in Chicago. The Dogs still don't have enough up front to challenge the Western's best, but they will be fun to watch.
4. Dallas Stars
Look at the stars,
Look how they shine for you,
And everything you do,
-- "Yellow" by Coldplay
Their forwards are scary -- an assortment of size, strength, speed, experience and toughness. The question for the Stars is at defense and goaltending. You wonder if Marty Turco and Ron Tugnutt get off to a slow start, will Byron Dafoe be getting a call? But Turco had a .921 save percentage last season, and Tugnutt was at .917 on a bad Columbus team. Dallas resembles St. Louis in a lot of ways, and that's not because they have Scott Young and Pierre Turgeon. They spent a lot of money, appear to have excellent coaching and competent management, and they have a lot of expectations and non-superstar goaltending. Assessing the Stars is simple: Will all this high-quality stuff come together and will they get goaltending? If they do, they could win it all.
3. Colorado Avalanche
Miracle people with marvelous hair,
and a knack to do anything better than anyone
-- "New Frontier" by Counting Crows
I was all set to pick the Avs to win the whole thing, but the Drury trade changed my mind. You just don't trade those kinds of players. I was so looking forward to Drury and Peter Forsberg playing their "Beautiful Mind" games together. Thinking as one. I guess Pierre Lacroix feels Radim Vrbata or some other youngster can produce with Forsberg and Steven Reinprecht. But you don't trade clutch players and come up a winner. At least I don't think. That being said, the Avs are sure strong from Patrick Roy on out. With the emergence of Greg de Vries, the Avs have four strong and healthy defensemen. For what it's worth, three of them are right-handed shots.
2. San Jose Sharks
'Cause I don't want to leave the comfort of this place
'Cause there's a hunger, a longing to escape
-- "Higher" by Creed
Teemu Selanne could have left for more money and years to go to Boston, but his love of the West Coast has kept him a Shark for at least one more year. The Sharks have what it takes to be Stanley Cup champs -- youth, veterans and balance. Last year, they had six 20-goal scorers. They have improved their points total for seven consecutive seasons. They will need 100 points to make it eight. The continued improvement of Patrick Marleau and Brad Stuart, in my mind, defines this team's championship hopes. It's not a certainty that will happen, so I'm holding off on the Sharks. They were very healthy last year. You wonder if they will be as fortunate this season. There is no debate that the players, coaches and fans believe the Sharks can win it all. And for San Jose, that is the most important intangible to have.
1. Detroit Red Wings
Hate to say I told you so, I do believe I told you so,
sound device and lots of ice, I'll spell my name out loud.
-- "Hate to Say I Told You So" by The Hives
The Red Wings will win the Presidents' Trophy. They appear to be just as good as last season and just as hungry. But there are concerns. As wacky as Scotty Bowman was to some players, he had a presence. Dominik Hasek wasn't just a goalie, he was a hockey player. It was cool to see him play the puck behind the net so well during the finals. He was so focused and under control. I believe there is a DEFINITE drop-off in goal. People talk about Steve Yzerman's leadership being missed while he rehabs from knee surgery. Detroit has plenty of leaders to make up for that. What the Wings will miss is his TALENT. It would nice to be able to see one more season of Yzerman will and Yzerman health in perfect harmony. This is definitely Yzerman's last season. This is his 20th NHL season, his 17th as captain -- the longest tenure in league history.
|
John,
Pierre Lacroix is Yoko Ono. I e-mailed you once before that the trading of my favorite players was hurting my passion for the Avalanche. Well, this could very well be a fatal blow.
Sam Tourney
I was watching ESPNEWS last week, when glancing at the Bottom Line ticker thingy, I saw the phrase, "AVALANCHE TRADE CHRIS DRURY AND STEPHANE YELLE TO ..." My first feeling was actually excitement, even though this came out of nowhere. Where was Drury heading? Maybe he would be traded to ...? When "Calgary" came up, my heart sank. I mean, this is Chris Drury. He has won since he was in the crib. If there would have been a poop contest in the hospital his first few hours there, he would have won.
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| The Flames are hoping Chris Drury packed his winning ways with him for his trip to Calgary. |
"Chris Drury in crib No. 1 appears to be making a funny face. This could be the one. But, WAIT!!! Rickey O'Keefe from Shelton, Conn., in crib No. 5 appears ready to blow! This could be a close one! The little Drury is actually grasping the handle of his crib, he is bracing himself! What instincts in this about-to-be-soiled youngster. Trumbull, Conn., has never seen such savvy!!! He shifts, he farts, he shoots, he SCORRRRES!! Chris Drury, THE FIRST POOP OF THE DAY!!!!!!"
And the winning never stopped. Little League, prep school, college, NHL. Championship, championship, championship, championship.
Sharks GM Dean Lombardi once said: "With Drury, you are talking about a winner, and that's a guy who's hard to find."
Avalanche grinder Dan Hinote said of Drury last year: "That's what makes him a winner his whole life and that's what makes him a leader."
Winner. Leader. You DON'T trade winner, leader.
What was Pierre Lacroix thinking? Was this personal? Because personnel wise, it makes no sense to trade a man of Drury's ability, durability and his addiction for being clutch. Clutch is EVERYTHING in life. Perhaps in his den, Lacroix mumbles to himself, "Drury, Shhrury. If Radim Vrbata played with the players Drury has played with, he'd have all those game-winning goals, too."
In this era of sports, nearly every athlete is well-trained, well-coached, well-conditioned and dedicated to his or her sport. The games are lighting fast, with little room. Strength, speed and agility are certainly important, but since so many athletes have those qualities, there aren't many out-of-shape dogs competing. Therefore, the smart athlete is who makes the difference. Tiger Woods is the smartest golfer; that's why he is No. 1. He knows how to act, how to plan, how to execute. The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year because they have smart coaches and smart players. Smarts and hearts will win most times.
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| | Iginla |
Calgary made a great deal. Chris Drury will have a career year in goals, assists and points -- 31-51-82 is my guess. Jarome Iginla's smile just got so big, it split the sides of his mouth. Most assume Drury's winning will stop, that the hockey GOD has gone to HOCKEY HELL. From the hospital crib poop, to winning the Stanley Cup in 2001, he has always won. Most feel Chris Drury will FINALLY get a nice dose of losing, small-market Canadian humble pie.
Don't bet on it.
No. 1: How'd you find out about the trade?
Drury: We practiced at the practice facility and I was in the gym working out when I noticed all the doors were shut to the offices. I knew all the rosters were freezing at noon and noticed it was 11:40 and figured something was happening. I finished my workout and went to the locker room to shower and change. The assistant coach came down to grab me and asked me to come upstairs.
No. 2: At that moment did you think, "I'm traded."
Drury: I knew that, I just didn't no where. But as I walked up, I was pretty sure it was Calgary. I had heard we were trying to get Morris. I got in the room and sat down and Pierre Lacroix was on the speaker phone because he was traveling. And he was the one who told me. I had just bought a house in Denver and spent exactly 30 days in it.
No. 3: As you were going through training camp, outside of Rob Blake and Adam Foote, did you notice a major void with the Avs' defensmen?
Drury: Not really. Todd Gill was playing pretty good and Greg de Vries has come such a long way. He's a FANTASTIC player. Last year's playoffs wasn't a fluke. He hit his stride and everything is clicking. He looks great.
No. 4: It appears you will play the year with Jarome Iginla. Is that what you sense?
Drury: It's the first choice of the coaches. If we play well, we'll stay together. That is certainly where I want to be.
Drury already has two goals and three assists in two preseason games with Calgary.
No. 5: What number will you wear with the Flames?
Drury: 37.
Drury first wore 37 with Colorado and then switched to 18. I always thought the 37 looked better on him, and Calgary has good-looking numbers on their sweaters.
No. 6: Was playing with Peter Forsberg as awesome as it appeared, or do we, the fans, overstate that?
Drury: It was probably better than the average fan thought it was. Just night in and night out to see what he does out there. It was just amazing to be a part of that on the same team and on the same line.
No. 7: Will you have to manage your game differently now that you are playing with different linemates, the way Tiger Woods manages his game differently depending on course layout?
Drury: I think it's going to take some time to see what they want and how they play together. It took me some time to see what Peter Forsberg wanted. He was thinking a little bit differently than anyone else. I just want to try to keep it simple.
No. 8: It's obvious that this trade stinks for you and is great for Derek Morris. He has a chance to win a Stanley Cup and your chances are real low. That being said, what are the good parts of this deal for you?
Drury: I'll play a lot more. I'll be on the first line and I'll be on the first power-play unit regularly for the first time in my career. A player always wants that.
Chris is in the last year of his contract.
John,
I used to hate you, I thought you were a Barry Melrose suck-up clone. After reading your ESPN column regularly I have developed a new fondness and respect for you.
What caused this dramatic turnaround in sentiment?
Terry Sanford
You're a suck-up.
John,
Do you know when ESPN will begin to broadcast hockey in high definition?
Todd Shannon
In April 2003, ESPN will begin broadcasting some sporting events in HDTV, including hockey. Hockey in high definition is INCREDIBLE!! It increases the level of viewership enjoyment more than a Bowflex commercial. I believe that high definition will improve the quality of hockey broadcasts more than any other sport.
I hate butt-kissers. Having said that, I love your column more than any other column from any other columnist that I have ever read, and I loved Erma Bombeck.
Steve Rayburn
Am I bleeding? Because I just got tagged.
John,
What are your favorite Bed Folds songs?
Adam Bernstein
I have listened to Bed Folds' CD "Rocking the Suburbs" more than any other CD the past two months. These days, favorite songs change periodically, like Alexander Daigle girlfriends. I listen to "Mess," "Zak and Sara," "Not The Same," "Army" and "The Ascent of Stan" just about every day.
John,
Is Adam Foote a future Hall of Famer?
Ryan Peoples
Cleveland, Ohio
Right now, I would say no. He is only 31. He needs to stay healthy. The past four years his games played total has been 55, 35, 59 and 74. If his 30s are healthy, he has a chance. There is not a team in the league that wouldn't love a healthy Adam Foote. His career plus/minus is +100.
John Buccigross is the host of NHL 2Night, which will air Wednesday-Sunday on ESPN2 beginning with the preview show on Tuesday, Oct. 8. His e-mail address -- for questions, comments or cross-checks -- is john.buccigross@espn.com.
Goalie for hire
