Wednesday, December 22 Updated: December 23, 9:04 PM ET War Room: Chiefs at Seahawks The War Room |
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Kansas City offense vs. Seattle defense
The Chiefs are averaging 130.1-yards per game on the ground without a premier back. FB Tony Richardson has been the biggest difference for this unit over the current four game winning streak, as he has rushed for 209-yards on 37 carries, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He has flashed some unexpected speed, but more importantly for this offense is the fact that he is wearing teams down as the game goes on. The Seahawks run defense over their four game losing streak has been a major problem. The team now ranks 26th in the league versus the run, allowing 120.4-yards per game, but that statistic is misleading because of the injury to DT Sam Adams. In the first seven games of the season, when Adams was healthy, DT Cortez Kennedy was dominant in the middle, recording 5 + sacks and 34 tackles. In the three games that Adams sat out because of injury, Kennedy faced regular double and triple teams, recording zero sacks and just 19 tackles. Adams is back healthy and this unit has the potential to once again dominate in the middle. Kennedy is going to see a lot more one-on-one matchups, where he should be able to generate the type of surge and penetration that made this front seven so tough to run on early in the season. The key for the Seahawks is going to be between the tackles. If they can clog the middle and force the Chiefs to bounce the ball outside, Kansas City's running attack and playaction pass game will be effectively neutralized. QB Elvis Grbac is having his best season as a professional. He looks poised as a passer, taking advantage of single-man coverage on his wideouts off the play action fake, while also exploiting the linebacker coverage on TE Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez is having a Pro Bowl season because he is such a weapon in the passing game. Gonzalez has scored six of his ten touchdowns in the last four game where he has been matched up against linebackers that do not have the speed to cover him off the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks are going to be forced to pay closer attention to Gonzalez in the passing game, using FS Jay Bellamy in coverage instead of relying on one of their speed linebacker to handle the chore. Bellamy has a ton of range and has the athleticism to stick with Gonzalez, but the concern is the size difference as Gonzalez should be able to muscle himself into position. This is an interesting matchup because what it does is open up some room in the deep third for the Chief's receivers to get down field in mostly single-man coverage situations. The play action passing game is going to be crucial in this game, because the Chiefs are going to take some chances down field. CB Shawn Springs is one of the top cover corners in the league, and will be allocated to man-to-man coverage on Andre Rison. Springs should be able to take Rison out of the game, which will allow SS Darryl Williams to give CB Willie Williams help in the deep-third against WR Derrick Alexander. Alexander has done a fine job of taking advantage of single-man coverage for most of the season. He has established himself as the big play threat on offense, averaging 15.8-yards per catch. If Springs can dominate his matchup with Rison on the outside, the Seahawks should be in good shape using double coverage to Alexander's side of the field.
Seattle offense vs. Kansas City defense
In the Seattle "West Coast" scheme, the emphasis is on the quarterbacks ability to spread the ball around to his receiving corps in a low-risk fashion. Last week's game against Denver was a perfect example of how effective Dan Kitna can be within the system. He finished the game with 278-yards passing, zero interceptions and used eight different receivers in the process. However, the crux of the Seattle problems has been Kitna's inefficiency as a passer. The receiver/cornerback matchups this week will probably dictate the outcome of the game. Seattle has been running a majority of three-receiver sets with WR's Joey Galloway, Derrick Mayes and Sean Dawkins handling most of the duties at the position. The last time these two teams played, Kansas City varied their defensive attack, using a lot of nickel packages, even on first downs. Nickel corner Eric Warfield was called upon to handle the slot receiver (Dawkins), while James Hasty and Chris Dishman played press coverage on the outside receivers. The interesting part of the coverage was the fact that Kansas City would walk up Reggie Tongue close to the line of scrimmage to either come on the blitz or cover the underneath zone, while Jerome Woods played a deep centerfield. The coverage seemed to bother Kitna, as he finished the game 14 for 33 with an interception. Kitna's problems seemed to stem from Tongue's roaming play in the middle of the field. He had trouble reading the safety in coverage, and got caught throwing into a lot of double coverage situations. Another critical matchup to keep an eye on will be in the slot where Warfield will matchup on Dawkins for most of the afternoon. This is a nickel package matchup that will dictate a lot of Kitna's reads. Dawkins is an excellent slot receiver with great speed to stretch the defense, but Warfield has stood up to the test this season as opponents have targeted the rookie in their three receiver sets.
Special teams
Todd Peterson is still one of the top kickers percentage-wise, even after his meltdown two weeks ago against the Chargers. Peterson is now 28-of-34 with a long of 51-yards. Ahman Green has done a soid job as the teams kickoff return specialist, averaging 23.4-yards per return with a long of 54-yards. The punt return unit ranks just about at the bottom of the league, allowing opponents 11.3-yards per return, while the kickoff return group has been spectacular, giving up just 18.2-yards per return.
Key matchups
Gonzalez has established himself as the premier receiving tight end in the league, forcing teams to use defensive backs in coverage, because he is too much for linebackers to handle. Bellamy has a ton of range and has the athleticism to stick with Gonzalez, but the concern is the size difference as Gonzalez should be able to muscle himself into position.
Kennedy has battled some nick recently, but seems healthy and should be as much of a presence in the middle as ever. The new one-gap system has worked to Kennedy's strength, because it allows the explosive tackle to get out of his stance and limits his responsibility. Szott is going to have trouble with Kennedy's quickness and strength, but Szott is a crafty veteran that should be able to get in good position and anchor in against the bull rush. This matchup is extremely important because if the Chiefs are forced into using OC Tim Grunhard on the double-team, it will open up a lot more blitz lanes for the Seahawks to exploit.
This is a nickel package matchup that is going to be critical to the game. Dawkins is an excellent slot receiver with great speed to stretch the defense, but Warfield has stood up to the test this season as opponents have targeted the rookie in their three receiver sets.
Kansas City will win if...
Seattle will win if...
The War Room edge
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