Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.
Detroit offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
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LIONS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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27
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Pass
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9
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Tot. Yds.
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15
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Scoring
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7
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Int's allowed
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9
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Sacks allowed
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45
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BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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4
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vs. Pass
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4
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Total yds. allowed
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3
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# of Ints.
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17
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# of Sacks
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34
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Turnover differential
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-6
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The Lions continue to find ways to score points without the benefit of a running game. Although the offensive line isn't providing gaping holes, RB Greg Hill is clearly not shifty enough to setup blocks or find cutback lanes. Tampa's run defense is holding opponents to a mere 83.8 yards per game but Hill did have his best game of the season (16 att., 123 yds.) in the first meeting between these teams. Since then, Hill has managed just 144 yards on 61 carries (2.4 avg.) in the past five games and he needs to start pushing seams more to find openings. Hill's demise is completely unacceptable considering the efficiency of the passing game should be softening up opposing run defenses. The Lions had great success targeting the middle of the Buccaneer defense on draw plays, holding Pro Bowl DT Warren Sapp without a tackle in his worst effort of the season. Sapp was limited in what he could do in terms of shedding blocks because of a broken hand but the injury is now completely healed and he will be more of a force on Sunday.
Although it's still unclear who will start at quarterback, Head Coach Bobby Ross is leaning towards Charlie Batch. If Batch can grip the ball enough to make all the throws, he will definitely be on the field despite Gus Frerotte's recent success. The Lions executed a very conservative game plan in the Week 8 meeting but look for them to open things up a little more with WR Herman Moore regaining his feel for the game. Although he hasn't played the past 18 quarters, Batch shouldn't be as rusty as expected. He's been able to maintain his footwork and work some of the short and intermediate passing game in practice, which should enable him to be fairly sharp against the Bucs. The Vikings moved the ball through the air last Monday but the Bucs were able to make key plays on the ball in critical situations. Having seen a great deal of multiple-receiver sets last week will help Tampa in their preparation for Sunday's game. Tampa's front four should be able to get to Batch so he must get rid of the ball quickly, hitting big receivers Moore and Germaine Crowell on slants and hitch patterns. One thing Batch must be aware of on the hitch routes is the possibility of DCs Donnie Abraham and Ronde Barber coming hard off the edge on blitzes. Minnesota QB Jeff George ignored their charge last week and had one pass intercepted and returned for a touchdown after an athletic play by Abraham.
Tampa Bay offense vs. Detroit defense
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BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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10
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Pass
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30
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Tot. Yds.
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28
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Scoring
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25
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Int's allowed
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13
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Sacks allowed
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24
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LIONS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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6
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vs. Pass
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29
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Total yds. allowed
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21
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# of Ints.
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10
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# of Sacks
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39
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Turnover differential
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+9
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Rookie QB Shaun King fulfilled the coaching staff's expectations in the team's Monday night victory over division-rival Minnesota. Much has been made King's poise and intelligence but it's hard to ignore those rare traits in such a young signal-caller. King completed 11-of-19 passes in a tightly called game by Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula but they'll need to open things up more this week against one of the better defenses in the league. Tampa got by last week with dump-offs to the running backs and short crossing routes but they'll need to attack deep to prevent the Lions from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Enough can't be said about the performance of Detroit's front four last week against Washington. The Lions sacked Brad Johnson five times and that total could have been even higher had Johnson been flagged for a couple of obvious grounding penalties. An encouraging sign for Defensive Coordinator Larry Peccatiello is that his unit is getting consistent pressure without committing any linebackers to the blitz. To that point, Detroit's starting front four has 25 of the club's 38 sacks on the year. LB's Chris Claiborne and Stephen Boyd are doing a fine job of getting depth in their drops and making plays in coverage, which will be essential this week against the Bucs intermediate passing game. With Eric Zeier at quarterback, the Buccaneers completed 29 passes in the meeting at Detroit but 11 went to RB Warrick Dunn on inconsequential underneath routes that resulted in a mere 77 yards. WR Jacquez Green continues to make things happen but the team desperately needs Bert Emmanuel to contribute some big plays. Emmanuel has replaced disappointing Reidel Anthony in the lineup but his contribution (2 rec., 12 yds.) was minimal against the Vikings.
The Buccaneers have made two recent changes that have improved the consistency of their running game. New additions LOG Kevin Dogins and FB Kevin McLeod have made a difference the past couple of weeks, allowing the Bucs to control the clock with Mike Alstott (23 att., 95 yds.) in the team's win over Minnesota. Head Coach Tony Dungy expects RB Warrick Dunn to return from a sprained ankle that kept him out last week. Dunn tested the ankle in pre-game warm-ups but it was too stiff for him to make his cuts. Look for the Bucs to again use Dunn in more of a receiving role, while McLeod and Alstott pound the Lions out of the "elephant" formation. Detroit's front seven rendered Washington RB Stephen Davis a non-factor in last Sunday's 33-17 victory, holding him to just 51 yards on 12 carries. The Lions did an excellent job last time out against Alstott (10 att., 32 yds.) and they'll again need strong play from DTs James Jones and Luther Ellis, a pair that has been dominating the past two weeks.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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DET
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TB
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Punt return avg.
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12
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18
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Kickoff return avg.
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21
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15
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Opp. punt return avg.
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19
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6
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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14
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3
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Time of possession
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21
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4
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The addition of RS Desmond Howard electrified the Silverdome crowd last week on his 68-yard return late in the second quarter. Despite not having practiced with the team, Howard proved what he is capable of with a better scheme than he had in Green Bay. For Tampa, PR Karl Williams had the opposite effect, costing his team seven points with a fumble deep in Bucs territory. Both return teams are capable of breaking the big play so look for very disciplined play from the coverage units. Detroit was reckless and ignored assignments on a kickoff last week against the Redskins and James Thrash made them pay with a 95-yard kickoff return. Conversely, Tampa's Jeff Gooch came up with a huge hit on ex-Buc Yo Murphy, setting up the offense for an easy score. This one will probably come down to which team executes best in the kicking game, where both Detroit's Jason Hansen and Tampa's Martin Grammatica are capable from beyond 50 yards. Last week, Hansen became just the sixth kicker in league history to nail more than one 50-yarder in two different games.
Key matchups
Detroit OC Mike Compton vs. Tampa Bay DTs Culpepper & Sapp
The Lions inability to run the football might finally cost them this week. Compton has done a solid job in pass protection but he and his mates need to increase their intensity in the run game.
Detroit WR Herman Moore vs. Tampa red zone defense
Moore's touchdown last week against the Redskins was a sign that he is finally back. The Bucs will have a hard time stopping Moore inside the 20 if they don't play physical against him at the line of scrimmage.
Tampa Bay ROT Jerry Wunsch vs. Detroit LDE Robert Porcher
The entire front four is getting the job done but Porcher is the ringleader. As he goes, so goes the unit. After a lousy outing on Monday night against the Vikings, it appears Wunsch will have his hands full containing Porcher's all-purpose skills.
Detroit will win if...
They can spread the field and create some running lanes for RB Hill. The Lions opened with a four-receiver set last week against Washington but they ran very few the rest of the game. Offensive Coordinator Sylvester Croom will have a tough time getting his running game untracked against the Bucs stingy run defense. It's hard to imagine Hill having another huge day against this defense.
The come out sharp and execute offensively. This will be a tough road test for the home-strong Lions. If Batch goes at quarterback, the Lions could have trouble finding a rhythm against the Bucs attacking scheme.
They don't allow the Bucs offense to grind the ball. The Lions dominated in the trenches last week and they'll need a similar effort on Sunday against the run-oriented Bucs. FB Alstott can't be a factor if the Lions are to pull off the upset. Can they shut him down twice in one season?
Tampa Bay will win if...
They can control the middle of the field with TE Moore and RB Dunn. With an inexperienced signal-caller like King under center, the Bucs need to call a high-percentage game plan. If LB Chris Claiborne continues to make plays, Tampa could have a tough time executing their short passing game.
They can force the quarterback outside the pocket. Both of Detroit's quarterbacks are at their best when they are able to set their feet and deliver the ball. Tampa must get a strong inside push to flush them outside their comfort level.
The defense does a good job on third down. One of the team's biggest strengths has been their ability to create pressure on third down. Tampa must force Detroit into third-and-long situations where Batch will have to test his thumb and inactivity. Coming off the win over Minnesota, the secondary must again contend with a talented three-receiver attack.
The War Room edge
Tampa is about the only visiting city that the Lions have had success in recent years. The Bucs want revenge for the previous loss at the Silverdome. The way Detroit's defense is playing, Shaun King will have a hard time posting many points. The Lions can't run the football, which means a rusty Charlie Batch will have to get it done against the league's stingiest defense. Tampa Bay will win in a low-scoring game with few offensive fireworks.
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