NFL
Scores
Schedules
Standings
Statistics
Transactions
Injuries
Players
Message Board
NFL en español
FEATURES
NFL Draft
Super Bowl XXXVII
Photo gallery
Power Rankings
NFL Insider
CLUBHOUSE


ESPN MALL
TeamStore
ESPN Auctions
SPORT SECTIONS
Tuesday, November 23
Updated: November 24, 12:47 PM ET
 
War Room: Dolphins at Cowboys

The War Room

Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.

Miami offense vs. Dallas defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 21
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 11
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 25
   
COWBOYS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 11
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 6
# of Ints. 16
# of Sacks 27
Turnover differential +7
With QB Dan Marino back at the helm, the Dolphins' entire offensive philosophy can change. But the question is, does head coach Jimmy Johnson want it to? The Dolphins went 4-1 with Damon Huard as the starter, winning games with great defensive efforts combined with a low-risk and highly conservative offensive game plan. Now, with Marino returning, the Dolphins are going to have to find a happy medium.

Teams are no longer going to be able to gang up against the run and pinch inside to force Huard to make the throws outside, because Marino will exploit that scheme. The biggest advantage to having Marino back is his presence. The Cowboys are forced to respect his arm and will back off some on the pressure to give themselves more personnel to work with in coverage.

Another significant aspect of this matchup is the depletion of the Cowboy's secondary. Defensive coordinator Dave Campo is being forced to back SS Darren Woodson off into deep coverage instead of playing him close to the line of scrimmage in run support. Now, instead of going to their "42" defense, which features just four defensive backs and Woodson in the slot against three-receiver sets, the Cowboys are being forced to bring in nickel corner Charlie Williams. When the Dolphins spread things out with three- and four-receiver sets they can run the ball strongside against Williams, rather than SLB Darren Hambrick.

The Dolphins are without Cecil Collins for the rest of the season, but as witnessed last week in J.J. Johnson's 106-yard rushing performance against the Patriots, Miami is fully capable of establishing the run. In fact, against the undersized and active front of the Cowboys, Johnson's running style is better suited. Johnson is a powerful runner with great balance and leg drive. He is not much of a threat to bounce it outside and pick up big chunks of yardage, but he will wear down the Cowboys in the box.

If Marino gets his feet wet and can make some throws early in the game, it will force the Cowboys into nickel personnel against the three-receiver set. Watch this situation closely, because this is when the Dolphins should be most successful running the ball to the strong side, right at the Cowboys nickel corner who will be covering in the slot.

Dallas offense vs. Miami defense
COWBOYS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 4
Pass 22
Tot. Yds. 17
Scoring 7
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 18
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 17
Total yds. allowed 10
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 25
Turnover differential +2
The Cowboys have been extremely cautious offensively this season, especially over the course of the past two games with Troy Aikman sidelined. Dallas is not making many big plays on offense, but they are not attempting many either.

This is a very simple offensive scheme that is designed to win the game by running the ball, then catching defenses out of position with the pass when the the defense overplays the run. However, against a Miami defense that is known for its speed and corner play, the Cowboys are going to have a difficult time keeping up their average of 130.9 yards rushing per game.

The Cowboys are without LG Larry Allen but still have the horses up front to generate a push at the line of scrimmage. Tom Myslinski moves into Allen's spot and will be aided by his center Mark Stepnoski against DT Daryl Gardener. The Cowboys have been running the ball effectively inside the tackles. They are using a lot of zone-blocking schemes, which has played to the strength of veteran RB Emmit Smith, a patient runner who still has excellent burst to the hole.

The Cowboys clearly favor running a lot of counters and misdirection, giving Smith the ball five yards behind the line and allowing him to pick his angle and crease. Up front, the Cowboys should be able to generate a surge, but the problem for Dallas is going to be in the numbers.

Miami, as everyone knows, will lock CBs Sam Madison and Terrell Buckley on WRs Ernie Mills and Raghib Ismail, most likely taking the wide receivers out of the game. This allows FS Brock Marion and SS Calvin Jackson to pinch towards the middle of the field, taking away the underneath and deep middle, as well as cheating up in run support. It is amazing, when studying this defense, how much room the Dolphins give up to the outside.

Dallas is going to have to be able to do a couple of things in order to move the ball. First, Aikman needs to get the ball to his tight end and backs out of the backfield. With so much room in the flats, the Cowboys are going to have to get production from their dump-off options in the passing game. Also, the Cowboys need to stretch the field to run the football. Dallas is going to have to run a lot of four receiver sets and motion the tight end off the line.

Dallas is confident its personnel up front can open up running lanes, but in order to do so they need to have the right numbers. If Dallas can force the Dolphins into nickel packages on some first and second downs, it will force Miami to stretch its defense out and play more honest against the run.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIA DAL
Punt return avg. 6 4
Kickoff return avg. 2 15
Opp. punt return avg. 25 27
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 6
Time of possession 5 4
Miami's special teams have been outstanding this season. Olindo Mare is the top kicker in the league, connecting on 29 of 32 attempts with a long of 54 yards. The return units have been phenomenal, led by Nate Jacquet, who is averaging 15.2 yards per punt return, and Brock Marion, averaging 26.4 yards per kickoff return. Miami's only real problem has been the play of Tom Hutton, who is averaging just 41.7 yards per punt and allowing more than 30 percent of his punts to be returned.

Toby Gowin is off to a fine start for the Cowboys, averaging 44.1 yards per punt, but he has allowed more than 36 percent of his punts to be returned. Deion Sanders has been banged up but is still third in the league in punt returns, averaging 14.6 yards per return. A concern for the Dallas special teams unit is the play of their punt coverage crew. The team is allowing 12.1 yards per return and has already given up a touchdown.

Key matchups

  • Miami RT James Brown vs. Dallas DE Gregg Ellis
    Ellis is an impressive athlete, having a big year as a pass rusher as well as against the run. Brown has all the physical tools, but he has a tendency to play sluggish and has been getting eaten up by faster, more aggressive defensive ends. In Dan Marino's return, it is crucial that Brown handle this matchup and protect his quarterback's frontside.

  • Miami WR O.J. McDuffie vs. Dallas DC Kevin Smith
    Smith is a solid veteran who has lost a step but is still extremely effective in coverage. The Cowboys will look to man-up on the Dolphin receivers in order to get better help from their safeties in run support. McDuffie is getting a lot more room this season to operate underneath because of the deep presence of WR Tony Martin. This matchup will be crucial for the Dolphins, because it will dictate their ability to sustain drives and pick up first downs in the passing game.

  • Dallas LT Flozell Adams vs. Miami DE Jason Taylor
    This is a marquee matchup because of Adams' ability to shut down his opponent and Taylor's speed as a pass rusher. Taylor has the advantage in quickness, but he needs to avoid the reach of the mauling offensive tackle. This matchup will come down to Adams' ability to get off the ball and get in good position to reach Taylor off the edge.

    Miami will win if...

  • RB J.J. Johnson can wear down Dallas' undersized front seven. Dallas is extremely active up front but has a difficult time defending against teams that pound the ball inside the tackles in the run game. Johnson is a physical back that does not look to bounce it outside often. It is not only important for him to pick up big yardage in the running game, but also to beat up the Cowboys up front to neutralize their pass-rush speed late in the game.

  • QB Dan Marino finds his rhythm early. Marino makes his return behind center after missing five games. He is obviously the key to this offense, but this game will come down to his ability to get back into the offense and get his feet wet early. The Dolphins have been winning games by not turning the ball over and thus giving their defense a full field to work and time to rest on the sideline. Miami cannot afford for Marino to make turnovers early and leave the defense with a short field to work with.

  • DTs Daryl Gardener and Tim Bowens dominate space inside. The Cowboys are going to look to establish a solid running game early on. The Dolphins are extremely athletic and quick on defense, but it all starts up front, where Gardener and Bowens have been doing an excellent job of taking up space and allowing their linebacking corps to be mobile.

    Dallas will win if...

  • QB Troy Aikman finds his rhythm early in the game. As is the case for Dan Marino and the Dolphins, Aikman is coming off of almost three weeks away from the job and will be a touch rusty in the early going. Expect to see the Cowboys run the football more than usual early in the game. But at some point, Aikman is going to have to make the throws and make Miami pay for over-committing against the run.

  • RB Emmitt Smith gets more than 30 carries. The Cowboys' passing attack has been decimated by injury and cannot expect to be proficient early in Aikman's return, forcing a much larger emphasis on the running game. Smith is going to have to carry the load in order to take the pressure off Aikman and give the Cowboys a better chance of winning the time of possession battle.

  • The linebacking corps can get to Dan Marino on the blitz. Expect to see the Cowboys come after Marino, who has made a career out of getting rid of the ball and keeping his sack totals to a minimum. The one thing Marino is prone to doing, however, is forcing the ball into coverage in order to get rid of it. Especially coming off a five-week hiatus, Marino should be rusty and will be likely to make some mistakes in reading coverages. Dallas will look to get their active linebacking corps upfield in order to force Marino to make quick decisions.

    The War Room edge
    The return of the starting quarterback is the theme in this Thanksgiving Day clash. Both Troy Aikman and Dan Marino are coming back from injury, and he quarterback that shows less rust and can get back into the swing of their offense will give their team the best chance for success. The 8-2 Dolphins have been winning games with a low risk offensive game plan that has been giving its defense time to rest and a full field to work with. This is not going to be a game of fireworks, as the Cowboys will also look to establish things on the ground and win the battle of ball control. Miami, as far as talent is concerned, is the superior team and wins most matchups on paper. But the Cowboys have a funny knack of finding a way to win on Thanksgiving Day. Dallas will capitalize on turnovers and control the clock in low-scoring fashion to notch its sixth victory.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com




  •  More from ESPN...
    Thanksgiving Day preview: Dolphins at Cowboys
    After your Turkey Day feast, ...

    Focal Point: Jimmy vs. Jerry
    As they reunite on Turkey ...

    No war of words for JJ Bowl
    Jimmy Johnson is only talking ...

     ESPN Tools
    Email story
     
    Most sent
     
    Print story
     
    Daily email