Wednesday, October 13 War Room: Dolphins at Patriots The War Room |
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Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.
Miami offense vs. New England defense
The Patriots and Dolphins are going to play a classic game of "cat and mouse," and the major player in the equation is SS Lawyer Milloy. The Patriots have been doing an excellent job of protecting rookie MLB Andy Katzenmoyer by shifting Ted Bruschi inside the tackle and walking Milloy up close to the line of scrimmage. Pete Carroll has designed this offense to create a 4-4 look against teams that want to run the football. The only way to run the ball with any consistency against this set is to stick with the run game and wear down the Patriots defensive line. Kansas City was not successful running the ball in the first half last week, but stuck with, by running the ball 48 times, and as a result they tired out the injury-depleted defensive front seven. Miami will attack the 4-4 defensive set, running lots of downfield and pitch-sweep plays to get Cecil Collins wide. The key, however, will be for the rookie Collins to take advantage of the cutback lanes that have been opening up in the heart of the Patriots defense. Collins is a physical back that can take a punishment. He needs to carry a load on Sunday and run hard at the middle of the Patriots defense where DT's Chad Eaton and Henry Thomas and MLB Katzenmoyer have little quality depth behind them and are forced to play most downs on defense. Ideally for the Dolphins, the offense would be able to sustain a couple of drives in the first half by running the ball and forcing the Patriot defense to walk up Milloy and even FS Chris Carter on occasion, then strike off of playaction when the receivers get man-to-man matchups and can take the corners vertical either down the sideline or in the middle of the field. Miami's offense is frustrating to watch at times because there is so much talent at the receiver position and everyone knows how successful Dan Marino can be throwing the ball forty-plus times a game, however, Jimmy Johnson is determined to run the football, knowing the importance of a productive running game as the Dolphins make a run for the playoffs. The real struggle for Johnson each week is knowing how long to stick with the running game before it is too late. The Dolphins know that a couple of three-and-outs against New England's offense could translate into a 14-0 deficit in the first quarter on the road. When the Dolphins do open it up, they have a very competent receiving corps that can stretch a defense and beat you in a number of different ways. Tony Martin is the ideal deep threat and draws a lot of attention in the deep third from not only the corner matched up with him, but the free safety that is usually rolled to his side. What this does is leave a lot of man-to-man coverage on O.J. McDuffie on the opposite side and gives McDuffie room to work underneath. McDuffie is a possession receiver that does an excellent job of running precise routes and picking up yardage in the short-to-intermediate areas of the passing game. The Patriots, because of thier confidence in CB's Ty Law and Steve Israel, should be able to hold the Dolphin receivers in check without giving up too much against the run or in the pass rush. Israel will matchup with Martin at the split out position, and will play a lot of physical, press coverage off the line of scrimmage, knowing that FS Chris Carter is cheating to his side and will be able to get over and cover Martin in the deep third if he breaks free form Isreal's bump-and-run coverage. On the opposite side, Law will be matched up on an island with McDuffie, and should be able to blanket the veteran, as he does to most other top-notch receivers in the league.
New England offense vs. Miami defense
New England is going to have to run the football to take the pressure off of Drew Bledsoe. Teams are blitzing Bledsoe almost 80% of the time, knowing that the run game is incapable of making the defense pay for being out of position. Against the Dolphins, things are not going to get any easier. Miami's defensive line is one of the league's top units. The combination of speed on the outside and power in the middle makes it almost impossible for teams to establish a solid running game. The Dolphins also possess the most versatile MLB in the game, Zach Thomas, and are able to do a lot of stunting and twisting on the defensive line because of his ability to shed and make plays. The Patriots are going to use Damien Woody to get out and chip Thomas in the run game. Woody is an athletic offensive center with good range, but as most centers do, he will have trouble locking on with Thomas. The Patriots are never going to be able to run the ball 25-to-30 times a game with consistency, but the key against Miami will be to catch them when they least expect the run and pick up big chunks of yardage on draws and counter plays. Most importantly for the Patriots, is for the run game to act as a neutralizer to the blitz, which New England has had an awful time picking up in the last three games, and Drew Bledsoe has paid the price for the teams inefficiencies. The Patriots have been so successful spreading the field and throwing the ball, that teams have decided to gamble by blitzing Bledsoe and forcing him to get rid of the ball instead of sitting in the pocket and making reads downfield. Thus far, the Browns and Chiefs have been extremely successful throwing off the timing of the passing game. The Patriots are most successful throwing the ball late in games in catchup situations because teams back off into prevent defenses and give the receivers time to run their routes. Expect to see the Dolphins matchup in single coverage on the outside receivers with Terrell Buckley and Sam Madison, as usual, allowing the linebacking corps to come after Bledsoe via the blitz package. The biggest key for New England will be to burn the Dolphin corners off the line of scrimmage with a couple of timing patterns downfield. If Terry Glenn, Shawn Jefferson and Tony Simmons get caught up at the line, Bledsoe will be in for another long day of punishment.
Special teams
After nailing three game winners for the Patriots, Adam Vinatieri finally let the team down when he missed the game-winning attempt from 35-yards out on Sunday. Vinatieri also missed a 44-yarder wide left earlier in the contest. P Lee Johnson has been outstanding all season for the Patriots and continued in his effort last Sunday, averaging 46.3-yards per punt and placed his one opportunity of the day inside the 20-yard line. His hangtime and placement have limited the return yardage for opponents, and have given his coverage units plenty of time to get in position. Rookie Kevin Faulk showed some flash as the kickoff return man last week, but the production still is not where it needs to be for the Patriots.
Key matchups
The Dolphins love to leave its corners alone on an island with receivers and allow them to play physical, press coverage. The Patriot receivers given defensive coordinators headaches with their ability to beat man-to-man coverage and draw attention form the safeties. If the Dolphins are able to take the Patriot receivers out of the picture, it allows the safeties to cover TE Ben Coates and running backs out of the backfield, and it also allows them to help in run support.
Milloy has become an extra linebacker in the Patriots run defense, giving New England a 4-4 look against the run. Cecil Collins is going to have to take advantage of cutback lanes against the Patriots, because he will be unable to string it out and win the race to the sideline with Milloy close to the line of scrimmage in run support.
Thomas is one of the most active middle linebackers in the NFL, and creates all sorts of matchup problems for offensive lines. On running downs, New England will send Woody out to chip Thomas, but Thomas does an excellent job of shedding the block of offensive centers and getting to the ball carrier. On passing downs, Woody's offensive guards are going to have their hands full against the Dolphin's defensive tackles, which means that Woody is going to have to account for Thomas every time he comes on the blitz.
Miami will win if...
New England will win if...
The War Room edge
The team that goes to the air and opens things up earlier should be the team that gets out to the lead. The Dolphins have the speed on defense to keep the Patriots passing game somewhat in check, but the built-in advantage of playing at Foxboro Stadium may be the difference for New England.
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